Derivation of a Contextually-Appropriate COVID-19 Mortality Scale for Low-Resource Settings.

Background: In many low- and middle-income countries, where vaccinations will be delayed and healthcare systems are underdeveloped, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue for the foreseeable future. Mortality scales can aid frontline providers in low-resource settings (LRS) in identifying those at greatest risk of death so that limited resources can be directed towards those in greatest need and unnecessary loss of life is prevented. While many prognostication tools have been developed for, or applied to, COVID-19 patients, no tools to date have been purpose-designed for, and validated in, LRS. Objectives: This study aimed to develop a pragmatic tool to assist LRS frontline providers in evaluating in-hospital mortality risk using only easy-to-obtain demographic and clinical inputs. Methods: Machine learning was used on data from a retrospective cohort of Sudanese COVID-19 patients at two government referral hospitals to derive contextually appropriate mortality indices for COVID-19, which were then assessed by C-indices. Findings: Data from 467 patients were used to derive two versions of the AFEM COVID-19 Mortality Scale (AFEM-CMS), which evaluates in-hospital mortality risk using demographic and clinical inputs that are readily obtainable in hospital receiving areas. Both versions of the tool include age, sex, number of comorbidities, Glasgow Coma Scale, respiratory rate, and systolic blood pressure; in settings with pulse oximetry, oxygen saturation is included and in settings without access, heart rate is included. The AFEM-CMS showed good discrimination: the model including pulse oximetry had a C-statistic of 0.775 (95% CI: 0.737-0.813) and the model excluding it had a C-statistic of 0.719 (95% CI: 0.678-0.760). Conclusions: In the face of an enduring pandemic in many LRS, the AFEM-CMS serves as a practical solution to aid frontline providers in effectively allocating healthcare resources. The tool's generalisability is likely narrow outside of similar extremely LRS settings, and further validation studies are essential prior to broader use.

A mixed methods investigation of emergency communications centre triage in the Government Emergency Medical Services System, Cape Town, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: In order to allocate resources in an effective manner, emergency medical services (EMS) systems use dispatch-based triaging to prioritise patients by acuity. Over-triage, wherein patients are assigned a higher priority level than necessary, can serve as a safety measure. However, it places strain on EMS systems, a problem believed to be experienced by South Africa's Western Cape Government EMS system, with almost half of its calls designated at the highest priority level.To begin improving dispatch within WCG EMS, we aimed to describe the current system by identifying the most common conditions dispatched, and those most perceived to be suffering from over-triage. METHODS: A multi-methods approach was taken: First, a quantitative chart review was used to analyse all calls assigned a dispatch priority by WCG EMS between December 2016 and November 2017. These descriptive data then informed qualitative focus groups to further investigate emergency medical dispatch (EMD). Three focus groups were conducted, each with a convenience sample of staff from: WCG EMS staff, call takers/dispatchers, and call centre managers. Data were reviewed and coded, after which the lead researcher aggregated coded transcripts and conducted thematic content analysis. RESULTS: Seventy-nine condition categories were identified from 649,544 completed patient records for the study period. Non-specific pain accounted for the greatest proportion of dispatched complaints (16.88%), followed by assault with a weapon (10.00%) and respiratory complaints (9.71%).Sixteen WCG EMS personnel took part in focus groups, highlighting challenges of the current EMD system, including time constraints, legal risks, communication, overuse of the system, and lack of training. Chest pain, collapsed/unresponsive patients, and vomiting and diarrhoea were frequently noted to be potentially over-triaged conditions. To improve this, participants suggested trainings, modifications to the electronic EMD system, additional protocols, and public education. CONCLUSION: This study identified where over-triage is possibly occurring in the WCG EMS dispatch system, as well as potential solutions proposed by those working within the system.

Evaluating capacity at three government referral hospital emergency units in the kingdom of Eswatini using the WHO Hospital Emergency Unit Assessment Tool.

BACKGROUND: The Kingdom of Eswatini, a lower-middle income nation of 1.45 million in southern Africa, has recently identified emergency care as a key strategy to respond to the national disease burden. We aimed to evaluate the current capacity of hospital emergency care areas using the WHO Hospital Emergency Unit Assessment Tool (HEAT) at government referral hospitals in Eswatini. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of three government referral hospital emergency care areas using HEAT in May 2018. This standardised tool assists healthcare facilities to assess the emergency care delivery capacity in facilities and support in identifying gaps and targeting interventions to strengthen care delivery within emergency care areas. Senior-level emergency care area employees, including senior medical officers and nurse matrons, were interviewed using the HEAT. RESULTS: All sites provided some level of emergency care 24 h a day, 7 days a week, though most had multiple entry points for emergency care. Only one facility had a dedicated area for receiving emergencies and a dedicated resuscitation area; two had triage areas. Facilities had limited capacity to perform signal functions (life-saving procedures that require both skills and resources). Commonly reported barriers included training deficits and lack of access to supplies, medications, and equipment. Sites also lacked formal clinical management and process protocols (such as triage and clinical protocols). CONCLUSIONS: The HEAT highlighted strengths and weaknesses of emergency care delivery within hospitals in Eswatini and identified specific causes of these system and service gaps. In order to improve emergency care outcomes, multiple interventions are needed, including training opportunities, improvement in supply chains, and implementation of clinical and process protocols for emergency care areas. We hope that these findings will allow hospital administrators and planners to develop effective change management plans.

Essential medicines for emergency care in Africa.

OBJECTIVES: Essential medicines lists (EMLs) are efficient means to ensure access to safe and effective medications. The WHO has led this initiative, generating a biannual EML since 1977. Nearly all countries have implemented national EMLs based on the WHO EML. Although EMLs have given careful consideration to many public health priorities, they have yet to comprehensively address the importance of medicines for treating acute illness and injury. METHODS: We undertook a multi-step consensus process to establish an EML for emergency care in Africa. After a review of existing literature and international EMLs, we generated a candidate list for emergency care. This list was reviewed by expert clinicians who ranked the medicines for overall inclusion and strength of recommendation. These medications and recommendations were then evaluated by an expert group. Medications that reached consensus in both the online survey and expert review were included in a draft emergency care EML, which underwent a final in-person consensus process. RESULTS: The final emergency care EML included 213 medicines, 25 of which are not in the 2017 WHO EML but were deemed essential for clinical practice by regional emergency providers. The final EML has associated recommendations of desirable or essential, and is subdivided by facility level. Thirty-nine medicines were recommended for basic facilities, an additional 96 for intermediate facilities (e.g. district hospitals), and an additional 78 for advanced facilities (e.g. tertiary centres). CONCLUSION: The 25 novel medications not currently on the WHO EML should be considered by planners when making rational formularies for developing emergency care systems. It is our hope that these resource-stratified lists will allow for easier implementation, and will be a useful tool for practical expansion of emergency care delivery in Africa.

Essential medicines for emergency care in Africa

Essential medicines lists (EMLs) are efficient means to ensure access to safe and effective medications.The WHO has led this initiative, generating a biannual EML since 1977. Nearly all countries have implemented national EMLs based on the WHO EML. Although EMLs have given careful consideration to many public health priorities, they have yet to comprehensively address the importance of medicines for treating acute illness and injury.Methods:We undertook a multi-step consensus process to establish an EML for emergency care in Africa. After a review of existing literature and international EMLs, we generated a candidate list for emergency care. This list was reviewed by expert clinicians who ranked the medicines for overall inclusion and strength of recommendation. These medications and recommendations were then evaluated by an expert group. Medications that reached consensus in both the online survey and expert review were included in a draft emergency care EML, which underwent a final in-person consensus process.Results:The final emergency care EML included 213 medicines, 25 of which are not in the 2017 WHO EML but were deemed essential for clinical practice by regional emergency providers. The final EML has associated recommendations of desirable or essential, and is subdivided by facility level. Thirty-nine medicines were recommended for basic facilities, an additional 96 for intermediate facilities (e.g. district hospitals), and an additional 78 for advanced facilities (e.g. tertiary centres).Conclusion:The 25 novel medications not currently on the WHO EML should be considered by planners when making rational formularies for developing emergency care systems. It is our hope that these resource-stratified lists will allow for easier implementation, and will be a useful tool for practical expansion of emergency care delivery in Africa