Commodity-specific triads in the Dutch inter-industry production network.

Triadic motifs are the smallest building blocks of higher-order interactions in complex networks and can be detected as over-occurrences with respect to null models with only pair-wise interactions. Recently, the motif structure of production networks has attracted attention in light of its possible role in the propagation of economic shocks. However, its characterization at the level of individual commodities is still poorly understood. Here we analyze both binary and weighted triadic motifs in the Dutch inter-industry production network disaggregated at the level of 187 commodity groups, which Statistics Netherlands reconstructed from National Accounts registers, surveys and known empirical data. We introduce appropriate null models that filter out node heterogeneity and the strong effects of link reciprocity and find that, while the aggregate network that overlays all products is characterized by a multitude of triadic motifs, most single-product layers feature no significant motif, and roughly 85% of the layers feature only two motifs or less. This result paves the way for identifying a simple 'triadic fingerprint' of each commodity and for reconstructing most product-specific networks from partial information in a pairwise fashion by controlling for their reciprocity structure. We discuss how these results can help statistical bureaus identify fine-grained information in structural analyses of interest for policymakers.

Hidden singularities in spontaneously polarized molecular solids.

Films of dipolar molecules formed by physical vapor deposition are, in general, spontaneously polarized, with implications ranging from electron transfer in molecular optoelectronic devices to the properties of astrochemical ices in the interstellar medium. Polarization arises from dipole orientation, which should intuitively decrease with increasing deposition temperature, T. However, it is experimentally found that minimum or maximum values in polarization vs T may be observed for cis-methyl formate, 1-propanol, and ammonia. A continuous analytic form of polarization vs T is developed, which has the property that it is not differentiable at all T. The minima and maxima in polarization vs T are marked by singularities in the differential of this analytic form. This exotic behavior is presently unique to films of dipolar species and has not been reported, for example, in the related magnetic phases of spin glasses.

Reducing societal impacts of SARS-CoV-2 interventions through subnational implementation.

To curb the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, many countries relied on nation-wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, resulting in substantial socio-economic impacts. Potentially, subnational implementations might have had less of a societal impact, but comparable epidemiological impact. Here, using the first COVID-19 wave in the Netherlands as a case in point, we address this issue by developing a high-resolution analysis framework that uses a demographically stratified population and a spatially explicit, dynamic, individual contact-pattern based epidemiology, calibrated to hospital admissions data and mobility trends extracted from mobile phone signals and Google. We demonstrate how a subnational approach could achieve similar level of epidemiological control in terms of hospital admissions, while some parts of the country could stay open for a longer period. Our framework is exportable to other countries and settings, and may be used to develop policies on subnational approach as a better strategic choice for controlling future epidemics.

A non-parametric method for determining epidemiological reproduction numbers.

In the spreading of infectious diseases, an important number to determine is how many other people will be infected on average by anyone who has become infected themselves. This is known as the reproduction number. This paper describes a non-parametric inverse method for extracting the full transfer function of infection, of which the reproduction number is the integral. The method is demonstrated by applying it to the timeline of hospitalisation admissions for covid-19 in the Netherlands up to May 20 2020, which is publicly available from the site of the Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (rivm.nl).