Cardiovascular health in Italy. Ten-year surveillance of cardiovascular diseases and risk factors: Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare/Health Examination Survey 1998-2012.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of and monitoring trends for cardiovascular diseases and risk factors are relevant when we consider that these diseases and conditions are largely preventable. The aim of this paper is to assess time trends of cardiovascular diseases, lifestyles, risk factors and high risk conditions in different socioeconomic levels. METHODS: Paired but independent population samples of men and women aged 35-74 years located in all 20 Italian regions were examined in 1998-2002 (n = 9612) and in 2008-2012 (n = 8141). Time trends of lifestyles, cardiovascular risk factors, prevalence of high-risk conditions and cardiovascular diseases are shown for two different socioeconomic levels, as assessed by educational level. RESULTS: Over 10 years, in both genders and socioeconomic classes, the prevalence of smoking decreased (from 32% to 23% in men) as well as mean levels of blood pressure (systolic from 136 mmHg to 133 mmHg in men and from 132 mmHg to 127 mmHg in women), while the prevalence of dyslipidemia and obesity increased reaching 35% and 25% of the population respectively; the prevalence of myocardial infarction remained stable (1.6% in men; about 0.5% in women), that of stroke decreased in men (from 1.2% to 0.7%); the prevalence of diabetes did not change (12% in men; 8% in women). In the low educational class, cardiovascular risk factors and diseases remained unfavourable compared with the high educational class. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of cardiovascular diseases and their risk factors remain high and require continuous appropriate action at the community and individual levels, as suggested by the European Guidelines for Cardiovascular Prevention.

Social status and cardiovascular disease: a Mediterranean case. Results from the Italian Progetto CUORE cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Social factors could offer useful information for planning prevention strategy for cardiovascular diseases. This analysis aims to explore the relationship between education, marital status and major cardiovascular risk factors and to evaluate the role of social status indicators in predicting cardiovascular events and deaths in several Italian cohorts. METHODS: The population is representative of Italy, where the incidence of the disease is low. Data from the Progetto CUORE, a prospective study of cohorts enrolled between 1983-1997, were used; 7520 men and 13127 women aged 35-69 years free of previous cardiovascular events and followed for an average of 11 years. Educational level and marital status were used as the main indicators of social status. RESULTS: About 70% of the studied population had a low or medium level of education (less than high school) and more than 80% was married or cohabitating. There was an inverse relationship between educational level and major cardiovascular risk factors in both genders. Significantly higher major cardiovascular risk factors were detected in married or cohabitating women, with the exception of smoking. Cardiovascular risk score was lower in married or cohabitating men. No relationship between incidence of cardiac events and the two social status indicators was observed. Cardiovascular case-fatality was significantly higher in men who were not married and not cohabitating (HR 3.20, 95%CI: 2.21-4.64). The higher cardiovascular risk observed in those with a low level of education deserves careful attention even if during the follow-up it did not seem to determine an increase of cardiac events. CONCLUSIONS: Preventive interventions on cardiovascular risk should be addressed mostly to people with less education. Cardiovascular risk score and case-fatality resulted higher in men living alone while cardiovascular factors were higher in women married or cohabitating. Such gender differences seem peculiar of our population and require further research on unexpected cultural and behavioural influences.

[Italian cardiovascular mortality charts of the CUORE Project: are they comparable with the SCORE charts?]. / Omogeneità delle carte del rischio del progetto CUORE per la valutazione della mortalità cardiovascolare e le carte del Progetto SCORE.

BACKGROUND: The CUORE Project, an Italian longitudinal study, and the SCORE Project use similar methodology in data collection of cardiovascular risk factors and events. The aim of this study was to build the CUORE Project risk charts for the assessment of cardiovascular mortality and to compare them with the SCORE charts. METHODS: Random population samples enrolled between 1980 and 1990 in Italy were included in the analysis: 7520 men aged 35-69 years without previous cardiovascular events with a mean follow-up period of 10 years for cardiovascular disease. ICD-9 codes of death certificates similar to those of the SCORE Project were considered in the analysis when they appear as first cause of death. Gender stratified Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess cardiovascular mortality, including age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol (or total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio) and smoking habit as risk factors. RESULTS: Results from gender stratified analysis considering total cholesterol showed that all risk factors included in the cardiovascular mortality Cox model of the CUORE Project were statistically significant. The correspondent area under the ROC curve was 0.822 (95% confidence interval 0.800-0.844) for men. The CUORE Project charts were quite similar to the correspondent charts of the SCORE Project: Lin's concordance coefficient was 0.964. Risk range of non-smoker men was 0-17% for the CUORE cardiovascular mortality risk chart (0-14% for the SCORE chart); risk range of smokers was 0-25% for the CUORE cardiovascular mortality risk chart (0-26% for the SCORE chart). Similar results were observed for the chart with total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio. CONCLUSIONS: The comparison between the CUORE and SCORE mortality risk charts demonstrates that the SCORE charts reflect quite well Italian cardiovascular mortality and, correspondingly, Italian cohorts of the CUORE Project are quite representative of European countries with a low risk of cardiovascular mortality.

Italian cardiovascular mortality charts of the CUORE project: are they comparable with the SCORE charts?

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to build risk charts for the assessment of cardiovascular mortality of the CUORE project, an Italian longitudinal study, and to compare them with the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) project charts for low risk European countries. DESIGN: Random population samples enrolled in the 1980s and 1990s in Italy were included in the analysis: 7,520 men and 13,127 women aged 35-69 years without previous cardiovascular events and with a mean follow-up period of 10 years for cardiovascular disease. ICD-9 codes of death certificates similar to those of the SCORE project were considered when they appear as first cause of death. METHODS: Sex-stratified Cox proportional hazard model including age, systolic blood pressure, ratio between total and HDL cholesterol, and smoking habit as risk factors was used to assess cardiovascular mortality. RESULTS: Analysis showed that all risk factors included in the model were statistically significant. The corresponding area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.825 (95% confidence interval: 0.803-0.846) for men and 0.850 (0.823-0.877) for women. The CUORE project charts yielded similar results to the corresponding charts of the SCORE project: Lin's coefficient was 0.929 for men and 0.935 for women. CONCLUSION: The comparison between CUORE and SCORE mortality risk charts shows that SCORE charts reflect quite well the Italian cardiovascular mortality and, correspondingly, Italian cohorts of the CUORE project are quite representative of European countries at low risk for cardiovascular mortality.

The metabolic syndrome: a critical appraisal based on the CUORE epidemiologic study.

OBJECTIVES: Multiple aspects of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) remain problematic. Here we assess the association between epidemic obesity and the other MetS traits, and MetS utility for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment. METHODS: Italian population-based Progetto CUORE data were used: 17 252 women and men ages 35-69 years, baseline 1984-1993, mean follow-up of 10 years, for nonfatal plus fatal CVD events. NCEP-ATP III criteria defined MetS. RESULTS: Epidemic obesity was strongly related to epidemic rates of the four other MetS traits. Only four of 16 possible MetS trait combinations were common; their CVD hazard ratios ranged from 1.21 to 1.70. In multivariate analyses MetS was no better than the sum of its parts in predicting CVD, important information was lost due to omission of non-HDL-C and smoking, and from considering MetS traits as yes/no variables. CVD risk prediction by MetS was less strong for men and no stronger for women than by classical risk factors (blood pressure, diabetes, serum cholesterol, smoking, overweight/obesity). CONCLUSIONS: These findings are concordant with the inference that epidemic obesity importantly influences epidemic occurrence of the other MetS traits; they also indicate that use of MetS for CVD risk assessment has limitations and needs critical reconsideration.

[CardiReset: general medicine and monitoring of cardiovascular risk factors in a whole region]. / CardioRESET: medicina generale e monitoraggio dei fattori di rischio cardiovascolare in un'intera regione.

BACKGROUND: The CardioRESET project was carried out in 2005 to evaluate the feasibility of a cardiovascular risk factor survey by general practitioners in Friuli Venezia Giulia, a north-eastern Italian region. METHODS: We randomized 2701 subjects (1336 males and 1365 females), aged 35-74 years, from the general population. The family doctors surveyed the randomized population sample using the standardized methods of the Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare, a reference national survey. RESULTS: The participation rate was 85.4% and all variables were recorded at least in 60% of subjects. Mean values of risk factors, prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes and data on their control, smoking habits were comparable with data from the Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare; only the mean value of low-density lipoprotein cholesterolemia was higher in our region. CONCLUSIONS: This experience points out that in a small region it is possible to engage general practitioners to achieve a standardized surveillance of cardiovascular risk factors at a low cost.

[Cardiovascular risk and cardiometabolic risk: an epidemiological evaluation]. / Rischio cardiovascolare e rischio cardiometabolico: una valutazione epidemiologica.

On the basis of a critical literature review, this article deals with the concepts of global cardiovascular risk and cardiometabolic risk, pointing out their links but also their unresolved issues and discussing their usefulness in clinical practice. The global cardiovascular risk is the probability of suffering from a coronary event or stroke in a given period of time and in this sense it is an absolute risk, generally reported as percentage at 10 years. Usually risk functions are used, derived from longitudinal studies of healthy people at baseline. They consider some factors that are coherently linked with events in population analyses: among these there are some metabolic factors (total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, fasting blood glucose), some biological factors (blood pressure) and some lifestyle factors (tobacco smoking), all modifiable beyond those non-modifiable like age and gender. The chosen factors must be independent at multivariate analysis, simple and standardized to measure, and contribute to significantly increase the risk-function predictivity. To be reliable, these risk functions must be derived from the same population where they will be later administered. For this reason the Italian Progetto CUORE, in the longitudinal study section, built a database of risk factors from longitudinal comparable studies started between the mid '80s and '90s and followed up the participants for cardiovascular mortality and morbidity to estimate the Italian global cardiovascular risk (first coronary or cerebrovascular event) for men and women. Two tools have been produced, the risk charts and a score software (see www.cuore.iss.it). The ongoing epidemics of obesity and diabetes and the fact that diabetes is associated with classical risk factors like hypertension and dyslipidemia induced the American Diabetes Association and the American Heart Association to launch a "call to action" to prevent both cardiovascular disease and diabetes. In this paper, as cardiometabolic risk factors were considered those "closely related to diabetes and cardiovascular disease: fasting/postprandial hyperglycemia, overweight/obesity, elevated systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and dyslipidemia". The association among the cardiometabolic risk factors has been known for a long time, and much of their etiology has been ascribed to insulin resistance. Also, the fact that these "metabolic" abnormalities can cluster in many individuals gave rise to the term "metabolic syndrome", a construct embraced by many organizations but questioned by other authors. From an epidemiological point of view the metabolic syndrome seems to increase modestly the cardiovascular risk, whereas in non-diabetic individuals it predicts diabetes much more efficiently. Many studies have compared the performance of the classical cardiovascular evaluation tools (the Framingham risk score, the SCORE charts, the Progetto CUORE score) and metabolic syndrome in cardiovascular disease prediction. Usually in people at high risk the presence of the metabolic syndrome does not improve the risk, whereas in people at lower risk its presence increases significantly the chances of cardiovascular disease. Many studies have shown that positive lifestyle interventions markedly reduce the rate of progression of type 2 diabetes. Also some drugs were tested for diabetes prevention, usually in people with impaired glucose tolerance. Oral diabetes drugs considered together (acarbose, metformin, flumamine, glipizide, phenformin) were less effective than lifestyle interventions, with different results among the drugs; the antiobesity drug orlistat gave similar results to lifestyle interventions. In Italy an appropriate approach to cardiovascular disease and diabetes prevention may be that of first evaluating the global cardiovascular risk using the charts or the score software of the Progetto CUORE, because high-risk subjects (> or =20%) must be treated aggressively independently of the presence of the metabolic syndrome; as a second step the metabolic syndrome may be sought, because it increases the risk; finally some attention should be paid to non-diabetic hyperglycemic individuals.

Preventive potential of body mass reduction to lower cardiovascular risk: the Italian Progetto CUORE study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate effects of weight change on incidence of major cardiovascular events in the Italian population-based Progetto CUORE. METHODS: Prospective observation in 12 Italian population-based cohorts on etiology of cardiovascular disease. Twenty-thousand six-hundred-forty-seven men and women aged 35-69 years without previous CVD, examined at baseline between 1984 and 1993 and followed for median time 8.5 years, with validated first cardiovascular events. Standardised anthropometric variables, lifestyle and biochemical risk factors for CVD; major cardiovascular events as end-points. RESULTS: Linear regression between BMI and major CVD risk factors was combined with Cox coefficients from a prediction model of CVD, CHD and stroke using major risk factors as dependent variables. Estimated cardiovascular risk reductions with BMI lowered by 1 to 3 U were: for men 3.8% to 10.9% for all cardiovascular events, 4.2% to 12.1% for CHD, and 2.3% to 6.9% for stroke; for women 2.8% to 8.1% for all cardiovascular events, 3.4% to 9.8% for CHD, and 2.1% to 6.2% for stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Body weight level influences cardiovascular disease risk in the Italian population.

Both vitamin B6 and total homocysteine plasma levels predict long-term atherothrombotic events in healthy subjects.

AIMS: The contribution of homocysteine and group B vitamins in determining cardiovascular risk is debated. We assessed the predictive value of total homocysteine (tHcy), vitamin B12, folate, and vitamin B6 on the long-term occurrence of coronary and cerebral atherothrombotic events in a nested case-control study. METHODS AND RESULTS: Within a cohort of 1021 healthy subjects (490 men and 531 women) recruited in 1987, 66 first-ever coronary and 43 first-ever cerebrovascular events were recorded at a 12-year follow-up (cases, n=109). A total of 109 control subjects (remaining free from events) were matched with cases according to age, sex, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and body mass index. Serum samples obtained in 1987 at baseline were used to measure tHcy, folate, and vitamins B12 and B6, as well as C-reactive protein plasma concentrations. We found a significant graded association between tHcy levels and the risk of coronary and cerebrovascular events [odds ratio (OR) for uppermost vs. lowermost quartile=1.34, 95% CI 1.01-1.76)]. Folate and vitamin B12 did not significantly differ between cases and controls, but were negatively (P<0.01) correlated with tHcy. Vitamin B6 did not correlate with tHcy levels, but differed significantly between cases and controls: for subjects in the uppermost quartile vs. the lowermost quartile of vitamin B6, OR=0.69 (95% CI 0.49-0.98). For subjects in the lowermost quartile of vitamin B6 and the uppermost quartile of tHcy, OR=17.50 (95% CI 1.97, 155.59). Cases and controls were not different as to C-reactive protein. CONCLUSION: tHcy and plasma vitamin B6 are long-term independent risk factors for coronary and cerebrovascular events.

[Occupational and leisure time physical activity: trend in the Italian population]. / Attività fisica lavorativa e nel tempo libero: come si e modificata nella popolazione italiana?

BACKGROUND: Over the last decades a change in physical activity habits of the Italian population has been observed. The aim of this study was to compare occupational and leisure-time physical activity, to assess the relationship between physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors and the variation in cardiovascular risk profile measured 20 years apart in the Italian population. METHODS: In two populations aged 35-69 years (MATISS 1984-1987: 2041 men, 2424 women; OEC 1998-2002: 4214 men, 4206 women) gender-specific levels of occupational (occupational physical activity [OPA]-light, OPA-moderate, OPA-heavy) and leisure-time (leisure-time physical activity [LTPA]-low, LTPA-moderate, LTPA-high) physical activity were compared. Relationship between physical activity and cardiovascular risk factors was evaluated in the two samples using logistic regression models adjusted for age, heart rate, educational level and other possible confounding variables in men and women separately. The 10-year cardiovascular risk was assessed in the two periods and in different physical activity strata using the Progetto CUORE risk score. RESULTS: Comparing the two studies, prevalence of OPA-low had decreased, whereas the prevalence of LTPA-low had increased. With increasing LTPA blood pressure, heart rate and glycemia decreased, whereas high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol increased with a positive effect on obesity, smoking habit and cardiovascular risk. CONCLUSIONS: Over the last 20 years, physical activity apparently changed: currently men and women dedicate more time to physical activity during leisure-time, and are less active at work. More active people have lower levels of major cardiovascular risk factors. Societal efforts are needed to increase physical activity levels in the population.

Determinants of carotid plaque occurrence. A long-term prospective population study: the San Daniele Project.

BACKGROUND: Increased carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) is frequently associated with established modifiable and non-modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, and is thought to be an independent predictor of ischemic cerebrovascular and cardiac events. The presence of carotid plaque is considered an established feature of atherosclerosis. There exist few longitudinal data on the predictive role of CIMT in the occurrence of carotid plaque. METHODS: We restudied the survivors of a cohort of the San Daniele Project, a large randomized general population study, investigated in 1990 regarding the prevalence and determinants of carotid atherosclerosis. Using ultrasonography, we determined in 1,193 subjects (548 men and 645 women), the common carotid IMT and the presence of non-stenotic and stenotic plaque. RESULTS: In 795 subjects without plaques or previous ischemic events at baseline, we found in multivariate analysis that CIMT > or =1 mm, age, hypertension and history of smoking are significant predictive elements of the occurrence of a new carotid plaque. The incremental probability of plaque occurrence is greater in midlife. CIMT and age are the most predictive risk factors with ORs of 3.66 (95% CI 1.4-9.4) and 3.02 (95% CI 2.4-3.7), respectively. The ORs for hypertension and smoking account for 1.5 (95% CI 1.1-3.4) and 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.8), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Age, hypertension, history of smoking and B-mode detection of CIMT increases in subjects without carotid atherosclerosis and free of previous vascular events predict the occurrence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque.

Favorable cardiovascular risk profile and 10-year coronary heart disease incidence in women and men: results from the Progetto CUORE.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular risk factor research has recently broadened its focus based on new data indicating the benefits of low risk, i.e. favorable levels of all major risk factors. The aims of this study were to assess further the relation of low risk to coronary heart disease risk, and implications for prevention. DESIGN: We conducted a prospective population-based Italian study, of 7438 men and 13 009 women aged 35-69 years, with a mean follow-up of 10.4 years and validated first coronary events. METHODS: Baseline coronary heart disease risk was classified into three categories: low risk; unfavorable but not high risk; and high risk. To analyze the relation of these risk profiles to coronary heart disease incidence, age-adjusted, sex-averaged coronary heart disease incidence was calculated for persons free of coronary heart disease and stroke, stratified as baseline low risk, unfavorable but not high risk or high risk. To assess the independent relationship of individual risk factors to coronary heart disease incidence, multivariate proportional hazards models were computed for combinations of risk factors. RESULTS: Only 2.7% of participants met low risk criteria; 81.4% were high risk. Age-adjusted coronary heart disease incidence for the whole cohort was 37.1 out of 10000 person-years (men 59.0; women 15.3). No coronary heart disease events occurred in low-risk men, only two in low-risk women. For women and men who were not high risk, the age-sex standardized coronary heart disease rate was 62% lower than for high-risk participants. Blood pressure, need for antihypertensive medication, smoking, hyperglycemia, diabetes, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were independently related to coronary heart disease risk. CONCLUSIONS: Favorable levels of all modifiable readily measured risk factors - rare among Italian adults - assure minimal coronary heart disease risk. Population-wide prevention is needed, especially improved lifestyles, to increase the proportion of the population at low risk.

[Assessment of the absolute global cardiovascular risk: comparison between the risk chart and the individual score of the CUORE Project]. / La valutazione del rischio cardiovascolare globale assoluto: confronto tra carta e punteggio del Progetto CUORE.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate 10-year cardiovascular risk, the risk chart and the individual risk score from the CUORE Project were recently introduced in Italy. These tools differ as for age range and some risk factors. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate the difference between the global absolute risk assessed by the risk chart and the individual risk score using the data collected through the Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare (OEC). METHODS: From the Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare sample, 6508 people aged 40-69 years without clinical manifestations of atherosclerosis were selected. Cardiovascular risk was assessed using risk chart and individual risk score and the 10-year risk was categorized in six classes (< 5%, 5-9%, 10-14%, 15-19%, 20-29%, > or = 30%). As coefficient of agreement between risk chart and individual risk score, Cohen kappa statistic was computed using the Cicchetti-Allison weights (k(w)). RESULTS: From contingency tables of the two methods distribution, k(w) was 0.71 (p < 0.0001 and 95% confidence interval 0.70-0.72). Using the 20% risk threshold reported in Nota 13 of Agenzia Italiana del Farmaco and excluding persons who were treated for hyperlipemia refunded regardless of their chart or individual score estimation of cardiovascular risk, the differences between the two tools classification resulted in the 2.6% of the sample (1.4% were assessed as at non-high risk [< 20%] using the risk chart and at high risk using the individual risk score, and the opposite for 1.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Classification difference between risk charts and the individual risk score is quite small. Updating of predictive functions of two tools could improve their concordance also for individual evaluation, including older people and better reflecting current Italian lifestyle.

Favorable cardiovascular risk profile (low risk) and 10-year stroke incidence in women and men: findings from 12 Italian population samples.

Recently, the focus of research on cardiovascular risk factors has broadened because of new data demonstrating benefits of low risk (i.e., favorable) levels of all major modifiable risk factors. Most data on low risk relate to coronary heart disease, not stroke. This population-based, 12-sample, Italian study (Progetto CUORE, 1983-2002), with 10-year follow-up, assessed the relation of low risk to stroke and implications for prevention. At baseline, women and men were 35-69 years of age. Only 3% were low risk; 80% were high risk. Overall, stroke incidence rates were 20.7 for men and 9.6 for women per 10,000 person-years. No strokes occurred in low risk participants, and stroke incidence was low with borderline elevation of only one risk factor. Four modifiable risk factors--elevated blood pressure, smoking, diabetes, and high total cholesterol/high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio--related independently to stroke risk. For those at low risk or who had only one unfavorable (but not high) risk factor, the stroke rate was 76% lower than for high risk participants; for all persons not at high risk, the stroke rate was 57% lower than for those at high risk. Results show that favorable risk factor levels assure minimal stroke risk. Population-wide prevention is needed, especially improved lifestyles, to increase the prevalence of low risk.