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1.
Mol Ecol ; 32(14): 3842-3858, 2023 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37277946

ABSTRACT

Populations on the edge of a species' distribution may represent an important source of adaptive diversity, yet these populations tend to be more fragmented and are more likely to be geographically isolated. Lack of genetic exchanges between such populations, due to barriers to animal movement, can not only compromise adaptive potential but also lead to the fixation of deleterious alleles. The south-eastern edge of chimpanzee distribution is particularly fragmented, and conflicting hypotheses have been proposed about population connectivity and viability. To address this uncertainty, we generated both mitochondrial and MiSeq-based microsatellite genotypes for 290 individuals ranging across western Tanzania. While shared mitochondrial haplotypes confirmed historical gene flow, our microsatellite analyses revealed two distinct clusters, suggesting two populations currently isolated from one another. However, we found evidence of high levels of gene flow maintained within each of these clusters, one of which covers an 18,000 km2 ecosystem. Landscape genetic analyses confirmed the presence of barriers to gene flow with rivers and bare habitats highly restricting chimpanzee movement. Our study demonstrates how advances in sequencing technologies, combined with the development of landscape genetics approaches, can resolve ambiguities in the genetic history of critical populations and better inform conservation efforts of endangered species.


Subject(s)
Genetic Variation , Genetics, Population , Animals , Genetic Variation/genetics , Ecosystem , Pan troglodytes/genetics , Gene Flow , Microsatellite Repeats/genetics , Haplotypes/genetics
2.
Ecol Appl ; 32(8): e2715, 2022 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36178009

ABSTRACT

Species conservation and management require reliable information about animal distribution and population size. Better management actions within a species' range can be achieved by identifying the location and timing of population changes. In the Greater Mahale Ecosystem (GME), western Tanzania, deforestation due to the expansion of human settlements and agriculture, annual burning, and logging are known threats to wildlife. For one of the most charismatic species, the endangered eastern chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii), approximately 75% of the individuals are distributed outside national park boundaries, requiring monitoring and protection efforts over a vast landscape of various protection statuses. These efforts are especially challenging when we lack data on trends in density and population size. To predict spatio-temporal chimpanzee density and abundance across the GME, we used density surface modeling, fitting a generalized additive model to a 10-year time-series data set of nest counts based on line-transect surveys. The chimpanzee population declined at an annual rate of 2.41%, including declines of 1.72% in riparian forests (from this point forward, forests), 2.05% in miombo woodlands (from this point forward, woodlands) and 3.45% in nonforests. These population declines were accompanied by ecosystem-wide declines in vegetation types of 1.36% and 0.32% per year for forests and woodlands, respectively; we estimated an annual increase of 1.35% for nonforests. Our model predicted the highest chimpanzee density in forests (0.86 chimpanzees/km2 , 95% confidence intervals (CIs) 0.60-1.23; as of 2020), followed by woodlands (0.19, 95% CI 0.12-0.30) and nonforests (0.18, 95% CI 0.10-1.33). Although forests represent only 6% of the landscape, they support nearly one-quarter of the chimpanzee population (769 chimpanzees, 95% CI 536-1103). Woodlands dominate the landscape (71%) and therefore support more than a half of the chimpanzee population (2294; 95% CI 1420-3707). The remaining quarter of the landscape is represented by nonforests and supports another quarter of the chimpanzee population (750; 95% CI 408-1381). Given the pressures on the remaining suitable habitat in Tanzania, and the need of chimpanzees to access both forest and woodland vegetation to survive, we urge future management actions to increase resources and expand the efforts to protect critical forest and woodland habitat and promote strategies and policies that more effectively prevent irreversible losses. We suggest that regular monitoring programs implement a systematic random design to effectively inform and allocate conservation actions and facilitate interannual comparisons for trend monitoring, measuring conservation success, and guiding adaptive management.


Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Pan troglodytes , Animals , Humans , Conservation of Natural Resources , Tanzania , Forests
4.
Am J Primatol ; 84(4-5): e23300, 2022 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34223656

ABSTRACT

Infectious disease outbreaks pose a significant threat to the conservation of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and all threatened nonhuman primates. Characterizing and mitigating these threats to support the sustainability and welfare of wild populations is of the highest priority. In an attempt to understand and mitigate the risk of disease for the chimpanzees of Gombe National Park, Tanzania, we initiated a long-term health-monitoring program in 2004. While the initial focus was to expand the ongoing behavioral research on chimpanzees to include standardized data on clinical signs of health, it soon became evident that the scope of the project would ideally include diagnostic surveillance of pathogens for all primates (including people) and domestic animals, both within and surrounding the National Park. Integration of these data, along with in-depth post-mortem examinations, have allowed us to establish baseline health indicators to inform outbreak response. Here, we describe the development and expansion of the Gombe Ecosystem Health project, review major findings from the research and summarize the challenges and lessons learned over the past 16 years. We also highlight future directions and present the opportunities and challenges that remain when implementing studies of ecosystem health in a complex, multispecies environment.


Subject(s)
Ecosystem , Pan troglodytes , Animals , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Parks, Recreational , Primates , Tanzania/epidemiology
5.
Am J Primatol ; 83(12): e23338, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34662462

ABSTRACT

Species distributions are influenced by processes occurring at multiple spatial scales. It is therefore insufficient to model species distribution at a single geographic scale, as this does not provide the necessary understanding of determining factors. Instead, multiple approaches are needed, each differing in spatial extent, grain, and research objective. Here, we present the first attempt to model continent-wide great ape density distribution. We used site-level estimates of African great ape abundance to (1) identify socioeconomic and environmental factors that drive densities at the continental scale, and (2) predict range-wide great ape density. We collated great ape abundance estimates from 156 sites and defined 134 pseudo-absence sites to represent additional absence locations. The latter were based on locations of unsuitable environmental conditions for great apes, and on existing literature. We compiled seven socioeconomic and environmental covariate layers and fitted a generalized linear model to investigate their influence on great ape abundance. We used an Akaike-weighted average of full and subset models to predict the range-wide density distribution of African great apes for the year 2015. Great ape densities were lowest where there were high Human Footprint and Gross Domestic Product values; the highest predicted densities were in Central Africa, and the lowest in West Africa. Only 10.7% of the total predicted population was found in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Category I and II protected areas. For 16 out of 20 countries, our estimated abundances were largely in line with those from previous studies. For four countries, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, and South Sudan, the estimated populations were excessively high. We propose further improvements to the model to overcome survey and predictor data limitations, which would enable a temporally dynamic approach for monitoring great apes across their range based on key indicators.


Subject(s)
Hominidae , Africa, Central , Africa, Western , Animals , Central African Republic , Data Collection , Gorilla gorilla , Pan troglodytes
6.
Ann Glob Health ; 87(1): 30, 2021 03 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33816135

ABSTRACT

Background: Multidisciplinary and multisectoral approaches such as One Health and related concepts (e.g., Planetary Health, EcoHealth) offer opportunities for synergistic expertise to address complex health threats. The connections between humans, animals, and the environment necessitate collaboration among sectors to comprehensively understand and reduce risks and consequences on health and wellbeing. One Health approaches are increasingly emphasized for national and international plans and strategies related to zoonotic diseases, food safety, antimicrobial resistance, and climate change, but to date, the possible applications in clinical practice and benefits impacting human health are largely missing. Methods: In 2018 the "Application of the One Health Approach to Global Health Centers" conference held at the Albert Einstein College of Medicine convened experts involved in One Health policy and practice. The conference examined issues relevant to One Health approaches, sharing examples of challenges and successes to guide application to medical school curricula and clinical practice for human health. This paper presents a synthesis of conference proceedings, framed around objectives identified from presentations and audience feedback. Findings and Recommendations: The following objectives provide opportunities for One Health involvement and benefits for medical schools and global health centers by: 1) Improving One Health resource sharing in global health and medical education; 2) Creating pathways for information flow in clinical medicine and global health practice; 3) Developing innovative partnerships for improved health sector outcomes; and 4) Informing and empowering health through public outreach. These objectives can leverage existing resources to deliver value to additional settings and stakeholders through resource efficiency, more holistic and effective service delivery, and greater ability to manage determinants of poor health status. We encourage medical and global health educators, practitioners, and students to explore entry points where One Health can add value to their work from local to global scale.


Subject(s)
One Health , Schools, Medical , Animals , Curriculum , Global Health , Humans , Students
7.
Am J Primatol ; 83(4): e23205, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33040401

ABSTRACT

Conservation groups are always challenged with assigning limited resources to interventions they assume will have the most effective impact in addressing threats to their conservation targets. These decisions are often made based on experience and perceived outcomes, rather than evidence. In the past decade, multiple public awareness and proactive law enforcement activities have been initiated in the Congo Republic to address the illegal wildlife trade. This paper presents the challenges faced and lessons learned in shifting from experience to evidence-based program evaluation related to the effectiveness of billboards in informing and inspiring local populations to support positive conservation behavior with regard to great apes.


Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources , Hominidae , Animals , Animals, Wild , Congo , Program Evaluation
8.
Biol Conserv ; 2522020 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33343005

ABSTRACT

The study of chimpanzees in Gombe National Park, Tanzania, started by Jane Goodall in 1960, provided pioneering accounts of chimpanzee behavior and ecology. With funding from multiple sources, including the Jane Goodall Institute (JGI) and grants from private foundations and federal programs, the project has continued for sixty years, providing a wealth of information about our evolutionary cousins. These chimpanzees face two main challenges to their survival: infectious disease - including simian immunodeficiency virus (SIVcpz), which can cause Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) in chimpanzees - and the deforestation of land outside the park. A health monitoring program has increased understanding of the pathogens affecting chimpanzees and has promoted measures to characterize and reduce disease risk. Deforestation reduces connections between Gombe and other chimpanzee populations, which can cause loss of genetic diversity. To promote habitat restoration, JGI facilitated participatory village land use planning, in which communities voluntarily allocated land to a network of Village Land Forest Reserves. Expected benefits to people include stabilizing watersheds, improving water supplies, and ensuring a supply of forest resources. Surveys and genetic analyses confirm that chimpanzees persist on village lands and remain connected to the Gombe population. Many challenges remain, but the regeneration of natural forest on previously degraded lands provides hope that conservation solutions can be found that benefit both people and wildlife. Conservation work in the Greater Gombe Ecosystem has helped promote broader efforts to plan and work for conservation elsewhere in Tanzania and across Africa.

9.
Sci Adv ; 4(4): eaar2964, 2018 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29707637

ABSTRACT

We present a range-wide assessment of sympatric western lowland gorillas Gorilla gorilla gorilla and central chimpanzees Pan troglodytes troglodytes using the largest survey data set ever assembled for these taxa: 59 sites in five countries surveyed between 2003 and 2013, totaling 61,000 person-days of fieldwork. We used spatial modeling to investigate major drivers of great ape distribution and population trends. We predicted density across each taxon's geographic range, allowing us to estimate overall abundance: 361,900 gorillas and 128,700 chimpanzees in Western Equatorial Africa-substantially higher than previous estimates. These two subspecies represent close to 99% of all gorillas and one-third of all chimpanzees. Annual population decline of gorillas was estimated at 2.7%, maintaining them as Critically Endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List. We quantified the threats to each taxon, of which the three greatest were poaching, disease, and habitat degradation. Gorillas and chimpanzees are found at higher densities where forest is intact, wildlife laws are enforced, human influence is low, and disease impacts have been low. Strategic use of the results of these analyses could conserve the majority of gorillas and chimpanzees. With around 80% of both subspecies occurring outside protected areas, their conservation requires reinforcement of anti-poaching efforts both inside and outside protected areas (particularly where habitat quality is high and human impact is low), diligent disease control measures (including training, advocacy, and research into Ebola virus disease), and the preservation of high-quality habitat through integrated land-use planning and implementation of best practices by the extractive and agricultural industries.


Subject(s)
Firearms , Gorilla gorilla , Pan troglodytes , Trees , Africa , Animals , Geography , Models, Theoretical , Population Density , Population Dynamics
11.
Bioscience ; 67(6): 534-545, 2017 Jun 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28608869

ABSTRACT

We assess progress toward the protection of 50% of the terrestrial biosphere to address the species-extinction crisis and conserve a global ecological heritage for future generations. Using a map of Earth's 846 terrestrial ecoregions, we show that 98 ecoregions (12%) exceed Half Protected; 313 ecoregions (37%) fall short of Half Protected but have sufficient unaltered habitat remaining to reach the target; and 207 ecoregions (24%) are in peril, where an average of only 4% of natural habitat remains. We propose a Global Deal for Nature-a companion to the Paris Climate Deal-to promote increased habitat protection and restoration, national- and ecoregion-scale conservation strategies, and the empowerment of indigenous peoples to protect their sovereign lands. The goal of such an accord would be to protect half the terrestrial realm by 2050 to halt the extinction crisis while sustaining human livelihoods.


Subject(s)
Biodiversity , Conservation of Natural Resources , Climate , Ecology , Ecosystem , Humans
12.
Behav Ecol ; 27(4): 1004-1016, 2016.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27418751

ABSTRACT

The distribution and abundance of food resources are among the most important factors that influence animal behavioral strategies. Yet, spatial variation in feeding habitat quality is often difficult to assess with traditional methods that rely on extrapolation from plot survey data or remote sensing. Here, we show that maximum entropy species distribution modeling can be used to successfully predict small-scale variation in the distribution of 24 important plant food species for chimpanzees at Gombe National Park, Tanzania. We combined model predictions with behavioral observations to quantify feeding habitat quality as the cumulative dietary proportion of the species predicted to occur in a given location. This measure exhibited considerable spatial heterogeneity with elevation and latitude, both within and across main habitat types. We used model results to assess individual variation in habitat selection among adult chimpanzees during a 10-year period, testing predictions about trade-offs between foraging and reproductive effort. We found that nonswollen females selected the highest-quality habitats compared with swollen females or males, in line with predictions based on their energetic needs. Swollen females appeared to compromise feeding in favor of mating opportunities, suggesting that females rather than males change their ranging patterns in search of mates. Males generally occupied feeding habitats of lower quality, which may exacerbate energetic challenges of aggression and territory defense. Finally, we documented an increase in feeding habitat quality with community residence time in both sexes during the dry season, suggesting an influence of familiarity on foraging decisions in a highly heterogeneous landscape.

13.
Am J Primatol ; 77(10): 1027-35, 2015 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26119006

ABSTRACT

More than 75 percent of Tanzania's chimpanzees live at low densities on land outside national parks. Chimpanzees are one of the key conservation targets in the region and long-term monitoring of these populations is essential for assessing the overall status of ecosystem health and the success of implemented conservation strategies. We aimed to assess change in chimpanzee density within the Masito-Ugalla Ecosystem (MUE) by comparing results of re-walking the same line transects in 2007 and 2014. We further used published remote sensing data derived from Landsat satellites to assess forest cover change within a 5 km buffer of these transects over that same period. We detected no statistically significant decline in chimpanzee density across the surveyed areas of MUE between 2007 and 2014, although the overall mean density of chimpanzees declined from 0.09 individuals/km(2) in 2007 to 0.05 individuals/km(2) in 2014. Whether this change is biologically meaningful cannot be determined due to small sample sizes and large, entirely overlapping error margins. It is therefore possible that the MUE chimpanzee population has been stable over this period and indeed in some areas (Issa Valley, Mkanga, Kamkulu) even showed an increase in chimpanzee density. Variation in chimpanzee habitat preference for ranging or nesting could explain variation in density at some of the survey sites between 2007 and 2014. We also found a relationship between increasing habitat loss and lower mean chimpanzee density. Future surveys will need to ensure a larger sample size, broader geographic effort, and random survey design, to more precisely determine trends in MUE chimpanzee density and population size over time.


Subject(s)
Conservation of Natural Resources , Ecosystem , Pan troglodytes , Animals , Forests , Nesting Behavior , Population Density , Remote Sensing Technology , Tanzania
14.
Conserv Biol ; 29(2): 350-9, 2015 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25319024

ABSTRACT

In an effort to increase conservation effectiveness through the use of Earth observation technologies, a group of remote sensing scientists affiliated with government and academic institutions and conservation organizations identified 10 questions in conservation for which the potential to be answered would be greatly increased by use of remotely sensed data and analyses of those data. Our goals were to increase conservation practitioners' use of remote sensing to support their work, increase collaboration between the conservation science and remote sensing communities, identify and develop new and innovative uses of remote sensing for advancing conservation science, provide guidance to space agencies on how future satellite missions can support conservation science, and generate support from the public and private sector in the use of remote sensing data to address the 10 conservation questions. We identified a broad initial list of questions on the basis of an email chain-referral survey. We then used a workshop-based iterative and collaborative approach to whittle the list down to these final questions (which represent 10 major themes in conservation): How can global Earth observation data be used to model species distributions and abundances? How can remote sensing improve the understanding of animal movements? How can remotely sensed ecosystem variables be used to understand, monitor, and predict ecosystem response and resilience to multiple stressors? How can remote sensing be used to monitor the effects of climate on ecosystems? How can near real-time ecosystem monitoring catalyze threat reduction, governance and regulation compliance, and resource management decisions? How can remote sensing inform configuration of protected area networks at spatial extents relevant to populations of target species and ecosystem services? How can remote sensing-derived products be used to value and monitor changes in ecosystem services? How can remote sensing be used to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of conservation efforts? How does the expansion and intensification of agriculture and aquaculture alter ecosystems and the services they provide? How can remote sensing be used to determine the degree to which ecosystems are being disturbed or degraded and the effects of these changes on species and ecosystem functions?


Subject(s)
Biodiversity , Conservation of Natural Resources/methods , Ecosystem , Environmental Monitoring/methods , Environmental Monitoring/instrumentation , Remote Sensing Technology/instrumentation
15.
PLoS One ; 9(11): e110984, 2014.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25365070

ABSTRACT

Domesticated animals are an important source of pathogens to endangered wildlife populations, especially when anthropogenic activities increase their overlap with humans and wildlife. Recent work in Tanzania reports the introduction of Cryptosporidium into wild chimpanzee populations and the increased risk of ape mortality associated with SIVcpz-Cryptosporidium co-infection. Here we describe the application of novel GPS technology to track the mobility of domesticated animals (27 goats, 2 sheep and 8 dogs) with the goal of identifying potential routes for Cryptosporidium introduction into Gombe National Park. Only goats (5/27) and sheep (2/2) were positive for Cryptosporidium. Analysis of GPS tracks indicated that a crop field frequented by both chimpanzees and domesticated animals was a potential hotspot for Cryptosporidium transmission. This study demonstrates the applicability of GPS data-loggers in studies of fine-scale mobility of animals and suggests that domesticated animal-wildlife overlap should be considered beyond protected boundaries for long-term conservation strategies.


Subject(s)
Animals, Domestic , Animals, Wild , Geographic Information Systems , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Zoonoses/transmission , Animals , Geographic Mapping , Humans , Population Dynamics , Seasons , Tanzania/epidemiology
16.
PLoS One ; 8(3): e58965, 2013.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23536841

ABSTRACT

The Malagarasi River has long been thought to be a barrier to chimpanzee movements in western Tanzania. This potential geographic boundary could affect chimpanzee ranging behavior, population connectivity and pathogen transmission, and thus has implications for conservation strategies and government policy. Indeed, based on mitochondrial DNA sequence comparisons it was recently argued that chimpanzees from communities to the north and to the south of the Malagarasi are surprisingly distantly related, suggesting that the river prevents gene flow. To investigate this, we conducted a survey along the Malagarasi River. We found a ford comprised of rocks that researchers could cross on foot. On a trail leading to this ford, we collected 13 fresh fecal samples containing chimpanzee DNA, two of which tested positive for SIVcpz. We also found chimpanzee feces within the riverbed. Taken together, this evidence suggests that the Malagarasi River is not an absolute barrier to chimpanzee movements and communities from the areas to the north and south should be considered a single population. These results have important consequences for our understanding of gene flow, disease dynamics and conservation management.


Subject(s)
Pan troglodytes , Rivers , Animals , DNA, Mitochondrial , Female , Geography , Male , Pan troglodytes/classification , Pan troglodytes/genetics , Pan troglodytes/virology , Phylogeny , Population Dynamics , Simian Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/transmission , Simian Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/virology , Simian Immunodeficiency Virus , Tanzania
17.
J Virol ; 85(19): 9918-28, 2011 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21775446

ABSTRACT

Simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) has a significant negative impact on the health, reproduction, and life span of chimpanzees, yet the prevalence and distribution of this virus in wild-living populations are still only poorly understood. Here, we show that savanna chimpanzees, who live in ecologically marginal habitats at 10- to 50-fold lower population densities than forest chimpanzees, can be infected with SIVcpz at high prevalence rates. Fecal samples were collected from nonhabituated eastern chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) in the Issa Valley (n = 375) and Shangwa River (n = 6) areas of the Masito-Ugalla region in western Tanzania, genotyped to determine the number of sampled individuals, and tested for SIVcpz-specific antibodies and nucleic acids. None of 5 Shangwa River apes tested positive for SIVcpz; however, 21 of 67 Issa Valley chimpanzees were SIVcpz infected, indicating a prevalence rate of 31% (95% confidence interval, 21% to 44%). Two individuals became infected during the 14-month observation period, documenting continuing virus spread in this community. To characterize the newly identified SIVcpz strains, partial and full-length viral sequences were amplified from fecal RNA of 10 infected chimpanzees. Phylogenetic analyses showed that the Ugalla viruses formed a monophyletic lineage most closely related to viruses endemic in Gombe National Park, also located in Tanzania, indicating a connection between these now separated communities at some time in the past. These findings document that SIVcpz is more widespread in Tanzania than previously thought and that even very low-density chimpanzee populations can be infected with SIVcpz at high prevalence rates. Determining whether savanna chimpanzees, who face much more extreme environmental conditions than forest chimpanzees, are more susceptible to SIVcpz-associated morbidity and mortality will have important scientific and conservation implications.


Subject(s)
Pan troglodytes/virology , Simian Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology , Simian Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/virology , Simian Immunodeficiency Virus/isolation & purification , Animals , Cluster Analysis , Feces/virology , Genotype , Molecular Sequence Data , Phylogeny , Prevalence , RNA, Viral/genetics , Sequence Analysis, DNA , Tanzania
18.
PLoS Pathog ; 6(9): e1001116, 2010 Sep 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20886099

ABSTRACT

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.


Subject(s)
Pan troglodytes/virology , Simian Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/mortality , Simian Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/virology , Simian Immunodeficiency Virus/physiology , Animals , CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes/virology , Computer Simulation , Feces/chemistry , Feces/virology , Female , Humans , Male , Models, Statistical , Phylogeny , Population Dynamics , RNA, Messenger/genetics , RNA, Viral/genetics , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction , Simian Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology , Tanzania/epidemiology
20.
PLoS One ; 4(6): e5941, 2009 Jun 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19536277

ABSTRACT

Sport hunting has provided important economic incentives for conserving large predators since the early 1970's, but wildlife managers also face substantial pressure to reduce depredation. Sport hunting is an inherently risky strategy for controlling predators as carnivore populations are difficult to monitor and some species show a propensity for infanticide that is exacerbated by removing adult males. Simulation models predict population declines from even moderate levels of hunting in infanticidal species, and harvest data suggest that African countries and U.S. states with the highest intensity of sport hunting have shown the steepest population declines in African lions and cougars over the past 25 yrs. Similar effects in African leopards may have been masked by mesopredator release owing to declines in sympatric lion populations, whereas there is no evidence of overhunting in non-infanticidal populations of American black bears. Effective conservation of these animals will require new harvest strategies and improved monitoring to counter demands for predator control by livestock producers and local communities.


Subject(s)
Predatory Behavior , Animals , Behavior, Animal , Carnivora , Computer Simulation , Female , Human Activities , Humans , Male , Panthera , Sports , Ursidae
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