Sustaining altitude pastures in mountain landscapes-a fuzzy cognitive model approach.

Similarly to other European mountain areas, in Serra da Estrela the grazing pressure has been reducing due to social and economic drivers that have pushed shepherds and sheep to the foothill, or plainly out of the sector. Shrub encroachment on commons and other previously grazed land is one of the most tangible effects of pastoral abandonment in Serra de Estrela. The impacts of the resulting increase in landscape continuity and biomass availability were made clear in the severe fires of 2017 and 2022. As fire risk is likely to increase with climate change, it becomes urgent to understand what strategies can be deployed to keep fragmentation in these landscapes. Key actors such as shepherds should be involved in this discussion to understand their perceptions, points of view and reasons for abandoning upland pastures. In this study, we use fuzzy cognitive mapping to identify the key variables and mechanisms affecting the pastoral system according to local shepherds. In our study, we developed with local stakeholders a framework outlining the local pastoral system. Based on that, we carried out the fuzzy cognitive mapping collecting 14 questionnaires. We found that shepherds' income is a central issue, but that it is highly dependent on many factors. Increasing the Common Agricultural Policy payments alone is not enough to incentivise the use of upland pastures. More targeted strategies, such as more support for shrub clearing, and direct payments conditional to transhumance are more impactful. Despite a contentious discourse between conservation and shepherding values in Serra da Estrela, we find that shepherd's values are aligned with biodiversity conservation and a potential nature-based solution for minimizing fire risk through woody fuel management. This opens up possibilities for new governance strategies, that put Serra da Estrela's social, environmental and cultural values at its core.

Farmland expansion and intensification do not foster local food self-sufficiency. Insights from the Mediterranean area.

Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale in modelling food security to inform context-specific regionalised policies remains a major scientific challenge. A better understanding of the relations between global and local drivers impacting local food self-sufficiency (LFSS) is essential. We applied to the whole Mediterranean environmental area (Southern and Northern) a modelling framework for structural estimates (PLS-PM) using qualitative and quantitative methods to combine local-level information from field surveys and participatory workshops with global-level data. Our findings show that farmland expansion and intensification spatially disconnected from urban consumption areas do not appear to foster LFSS. On the other hand, public policies appear key to enhancing LFSS in the Mediterranean area if appropriate to the particular regional context. We outline how this multi-level modelling methodology can contribute to a place-based approach by informing context-specific regionalised policies aimed at food security.

Emergy evaluation for decision-making in complex multifunctional farming systems.

In a montado farm, commonly found in the South Portugal, human activities benefit from important fluxes of renewable resources. In this study, traditional economic and emergy evaluations are compared to determine their potential contributions to understanding this complex system and applied to a case study of a farm. This allows us to determine how each method values local natural resources and purchased factors of production and services in an empirical context. Results show that the montado farm has a renewable component evaluated at 27% of the total social costs of the system and that the work of natural resources is undervalued in economic budget accounting. Economic evaluation's relative value of purchased factors and services is three and half times higher than their emergy share. We propose that complementing economic budget accounting with emergy accounting provides a benchmark to evaluate the environmental contribution to agricultural and farming systems. In this way, factors external to markets can be evaluated for farming systems, bringing to economic analysis a full evaluation of resources, including the bio-geophysical system's contributions to wealth, enlarging total economic value of resources with a donor perspective enabling a better informed and comprehensive accounting to attain sustainable economic decisions and public policies.