The Lyme Borreliosis Spatial Footprint in the 21st Century: A Key Study of Slovenia.

After mosquitoes, ticks are the most important vectors of infectious diseases. They play an important role in public health. In recent decades, we discovered new tick-borne diseases; additionally, those that are already known are spreading to new areas because of climate change. Slovenia is an endemic region for Lyme borreliosis and one of the countries with the highest incidence of this disease on a global scale. Thus, the spatial pattern of Slovenian Lyme borreliosis prevalence was modelled with 246 indicators and transformed into 24 uncorrelated predictor variables that were applied in geographically weighted regression and regression tree algorithms. The projected potential shifts in Lyme borreliosis foci by 2050 and 2070 were calculated according to the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These results were further applied to developing a Slovenian Lyme borreliosis infection risk map, which could be used as a preventive decision support system.

Assessing community assembly along a successional gradient in the North Adriatic Karst with functional and phylogenetic distances.

Recently, two approaches to account for ecological differences in community composition have been developed: one based on trait differences (functional diversity) and another based on evolutionary history (phylogenetic diversity). Combining them allows an integrated view of processes structuring communities. The North Adriatic Karst is covered by species-rich grasslands, but land abandonment has resulted in replacement by woodlands. This creates a successional gradient along which environmental conditions may change, and different community assembly rules may apply. We sampled 56 plant communities in the Karst and used functional-phylogenetic distances to assess assembly along a successional gradient, from grasslands to shrublands and woodlands. We found 146 species, for which we measured functional traits and built a phylogenetic tree. The three successional stages were floristically different, with grasslands having species that are typical of harsher soil conditions and woodlands with species preferring milder soil conditions. All communities had higher functional than phylogenetic distances, implying that closely related species tended to be phenotypically dissimilar. When more importance was given to functional distances, most grasslands and some shrublands were underdispersed; when more importance was given to phylogenetic distances, only one grassland was underdispersed and one woodland was overdispersed. Combining functional and phylogenetic distances provided us with better estimates of ecological differences in a successional gradient, where environmental filters seem to be the dominant force in early stages and competitive exclusion becomes more important in later stages. Taking into account that sucessional stages are assembled by different rules is essential to predicting their behaviour under future environmental scenarios.