Age and sex differentials in mortality during two nineteenth century population crises.

"The exceptionally detailed Finnish materials are used to examine age- and sex-specific mortality in different regions during the country's last famine, the Great Famine of the 1860s. This is compared with another mortality crisis, the 1808-09 War. The results show that in cases when multiple infectious diseases were responsible for elevated mortality, the increases for different age categories were, by and large, proportional to the levels prevailing during normal times. However, excess mortality showed more variability for children. Furthermore, age- and sex-specific social behaviour (specifically large-scale temporary migration) during the crisis period shaped the age patterns and sex differentials in mortality." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Inbreeding in Finland.

We have compiled data on the frequency of first-cousin marriages in Finland using royal dispensation records for the time period 1810-1872 and national population statistics for the time period 1878-1920. For the earlier period, 0.315% of Finland's marriages were contracted between first cousins (2,331 of 739,387). During the second time period, 0.174% of Finland's marriages took place between first cousins (1,325 of 761,976). These figures, which yield average kinship coefficients of 0.00020 and 0.00011, respectively, show that the level of inbreeding in Finland due to first-cousin marriage has been quite low. An analysis of individual parishes shows that first-cousin marriages are, on average, substantially less frequent than predicted by a random-mating model. In order to evaluate determinants of first-cousin marriage, several predictive variables have been examined: parish ethnic composition (proportion of Swedish and Finnish speakers), husband's occupation (graded into 6 socioeconomic levels), geographic distance between spouses' premarital residences, population density, parish endogamy, and urban vs. rural residence. Various logistic and linear regression models were analyzed in which consanguinity was the dependent variable. The best predictors of consanguinity were ethnic composition and occupation. The other variables were not in general significant predictors. These results show that many of the "mate availability" factors that would be predicted theoretically to account for consanguinity variation (population density, geographic isolation, urban vs. rural residence) do not. Instead, the best predictors of consanguinity at the first-cousin level are cultural factors such as ethnicity and occupation. Evaluation of cultural variables can provide a greatly enriched interpretation of complex biosocial phenomena such as inbreeding.

War demography: the impact of the 1808-09 war on the civilian population of Aland, Finland.

"A pre-industrial population crisis caused by a war is examined using Finnish historical records. During the War of Finland (1808-09) the Swedish military deployed on the Aland Islands helped spread infectious diseases among the civilian population. The result was a short but intense period of high mortality. This article focuses on the short-term demographic impact of this crisis. Changes in age-specific and sex-specific mortality, fertility, and nuptiality are explored....A projection, assuming that the crisis did not occur, indicates that Aland's population losses were never compensated." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Predicting smallpox epidemics: A statistical analysis of two Finnish populations.

We analysis data on death due to smallpox in two subdivided Finish populations, the relatively isolated Åland Islands and the mainland parish of Kitee. The data span a 135-year time period (1750-1885). Logisitic regression and Cox proportional hazards models are used to assess the effects of predictive variables on (1) the probability that an individual subdivision experiences an epidemic and (2) the length of the time period between two epidemics in each subdivision. The predictive variables include population sizes, migration rates, geographic distance, and presence or absence of vaccination. Vaccination was found to be the single most important predicative variable (odds ratio = 6.3 in Åland and 4.4 in Kitee). No other variable were significant predicators in Kitee, while geographic distance was an additional significant predicator in Åland (odds ratio = 1.05). As expected, vaccination and geographic distance were both negatively associated with the probability of epidemic occurrence. The Mantel regression approach was used to evaluate the effects of independent variables on the probability that any two subdivisions experienced the same epidemic. Between-subdivision migration rates were the most important predictive variable here, and population size was an important predictor in Åland but not in Kitee. The differing results in these two populations are explained in terms of differences in ecological setting and social organization.

Twinning rate in Scandinavia, Germany and The Netherlands during years of privation.

Twinning rates were studied in Swedes, Aland Islanders, Finns, Germans, and Dutch during years of starvation when death rates were two to three times higher than average. In contrast to the situation among some animals, this study suggests that nutrition above a certain threshold is unimportant for human reproduction, including twinning. The twinning rates for these different populations display marked temporal differences, but low values in the twinning rate are not consistently associated with periods of epidemics, famine, or similar nutritional stress. After years of privation and/or separation of spouses, a rapid "catch-up effect" can often be seen in the twinning rates, as well as marriage and birth rates. Psychoendocrine factors and interparental immunological conditions that may be involved in this phenomenon are discussed.