ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Designed to overcome influenza B mismatch, new quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) contain one additional B strain compared with trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs). OBJECTIVE: To examine the expected public health impact, budget impact, and incremental cost-effectiveness of QIV versus TIV in the United States. METHODS: A dynamic transmission model was used to predict the annual incidence of influenza over the 20-year-period of 2014 to 2034 under either a TIV program or a QIV program. A decision tree model was interfaced with the transmission model to estimate the public health impact and the cost-effectiveness of replacing TIV with QIV from a societal perspective. Our models were informed by published data from the United States on influenza complication probabilities and relevant costs. The incremental vaccine price of QIV as compared with that of TIV was set at US $5.40 per dose. RESULTS: Over the next 20 years, replacing TIV with QIV may reduce the number of influenza B cases by 27.2% (16.0 million cases), resulting in the prevention of 137,600 hospitalizations and 16,100 deaths and a gain of 212,000 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The net societal budget impact would be US $5.8 billion and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio US $27,411/QALY gained. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 100% and 96.5% of the simulations fell below US $100,000/QALY and US $50,000/QALY, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Introducing QIV into the US immunization program may prevent a substantial number of hospitalizations and deaths. QIV is also expected to be a cost-effective alternative option to TIV.
Subject(s)
Influenza Vaccines/economics , Influenza, Human/prevention & control , Influenza, Human/virology , Quality-Adjusted Life Years , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Child , Child, Preschool , Cost of Illness , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Health Status , Hospitalization/economics , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Influenza, Human/complications , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Primary Health Care/economics , United States , Young AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks.
