Contingency inferences from base rates: A parsimonious strategy?

The pseudocontingency framework provides a parsimonious strategy for inferring the contingency between two variables by assessing the base rates. Frequently occurring levels are associated, as are rarely occurring levels. However, this strategy can lead to different contingency inferences in different contexts, depending on how the base rates vary across contexts. Here, we examine how base-rate consistency influences base-rate learning and reliance by contrasting consistent with inconsistent base rates. We hypothesized that base-rate learning is facilitated, and that people rely more on base rates if base rates are consistent. In Experiment 1, the base rates across four contexts implied the same (consistent) or different (inconsistent) contingencies. Base rates were learned equally accurately, and participants inferred contingencies that followed the base rates but deviated from the genuine contingencies within contexts, regardless of consistency. In Experiment 2, we additionally manipulated whether the context was a plausible moderator of the contingency. While we replicated the first experiment's results when the context was a plausible moderator, base-rate inferences were stronger for consistent base rates when the context was an implausible moderator. Possibly, when a moderation-by-context was implausible, participants also relied on the base-rate correlation across contexts, which implied the same contingency when base rates were consistent but was zero when the base rates were inconsistent. Thus, our findings suggest that contingency inferences from base rates involve top-down processes in which people decide how to use base-rate information.

Seeing is misbelieving: Consumers wrongly believe that unhealthy food tastes better when there is more of it.

Recent studies have shown that people can believe that unhealthy foods taste better, even if healthy and unhealthy foods are equally as tasty. Specifically, when tasty and unhealthy foods are frequent in one context but rare in another, people perceive unhealthy foods to taste better, even if health and taste are unrelated. Given that people often consume food in one context, the current study investigated whether false beliefs about the health-taste relationship in foods can also occur in just one single context, in which either healthy or unhealthy foods are predominant, when there is no contrasting context where the respective other food is predominant. In two experiments (N = 342), we presented participants with pictures of meals from a single context and varied the frequency of healthy and unhealthy foods between participants. Although healthy and unhealthy foods tasted equally as good, participants believed that (un)healthy foods tasted better when there were more of them. This research demonstrates that health-taste beliefs might be changed by increasing the relative frequency of healthy foods in the environment overall, not by just offering some healthy and tasty foods.

Food Is All Around: How Contexts Create Misbeliefs About the Health-Taste Relationship.

We investigated a novel cognitive-ecological account for misbeliefs about the relationship between food healthiness and tastiness. We propose that different frequencies of healthy and tasty foods in contrasting contexts can trigger perceptions that health and taste are related in ways that diverge from the actual health-taste correlation in the presented food. To investigate this proposal, we conducted three studies (total N = 369), including a taste test, with adult Prolific academic participants from the United Kingdom and undergraduate psychology students from Austria. Our results showed that different frequencies of healthy and tasty food across contrasting contexts can trigger misbeliefs about the relationship between health and taste. These findings demonstrate that properties of the food ecology combined with basic cognitive processes can help explain the formation of beliefs about food such as that unhealthy food tastes better than healthy food. Our study extends the existing explanations for food beliefs and provides a perspective on how they can be changed.

Emotions and virality: Social transmission of political messages on Twitter.

Drawing on previous literature that valence and arousal constitute the fundamental properties of emotions and that emotional content is a determinant of social transmission, this study examines the role of valence and arousal in the social transmission of politicians' messages on Twitter. For over 3,000 tweets from five Austrian party leaders, the discrete emotion that the message intended to elicit in its recipients was captured by human coders and then classified on its valence (positive or negative) and arousal (low or high). We examined the effects of valence and arousal on the retweet probability of messages. Results indicate that tweets eliciting a negative (vs. positive) valence decreased retweet probability, whereas tweets eliciting a high (vs. low) arousal increased retweet probability. The present research replicates previous findings that arousal constitutes a determinant of social transmission but extends this mechanism to the realm of political communication on Twitter. Moreover, in contrast to the frequently mentioned negativity bias, positive emotions increased the likelihood of a message being shared in this study.