Estimating the Creation and Removal Date of Fracking Ponds Using Trend Analysis of Landsat Imagery.

Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is a process of introducing liquid at high pressure to create fractures in shale rock formations, thus releasing natural gas. Flowback and produced water from fracking operations is typically stored in temporary open-air earthen impoundments, or frack ponds. Unfortunately, in the United States there is no public record of the location of impoundments, or the dates that impoundments are created or removed. In this study we use a dataset of drilling-related impoundments in Pennsylvania identified through the FrackFinder project led by SkyTruth, an environmental non-profit. For each impoundment location, we compiled all low cloud Landsat imagery from 2000 to 2016 and created a monthly time series for three bands: red, near-infrared (NIR), and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We identified the approximate date of creation and removal of impoundments from sudden breaks in the time series. To verify our method, we compared the results to date ranges derived from photointerpretation of all available historical imagery on Google Earth for a subset of impoundments. Based on our analysis, we found that the number of impoundments built annually increased rapidly from 2006 to 2010, and then slowed from 2010 to 2013. Since newer impoundments tend to be larger, however, the total impoundment area has continued to increase. The methods described in this study would be appropriate for finding the creation and removal date of a variety of industrial land use changes at known locations.

Historical, observed, and modeled wildfire severity in montane forests of the Colorado Front Range.

Large recent fires in the western U.S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20th century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate- or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions.