Unveiling African rainforest composition and vulnerability to global change.

Africa is forecasted to experience large and rapid climate change1 and population growth2 during the twenty-first century, which threatens the world's second largest rainforest. Protecting and sustainably managing these African forests requires an increased understanding of their compositional heterogeneity, the environmental drivers of forest composition and their vulnerability to ongoing changes. Here, using a very large dataset of 6 million trees in more than 180,000 field plots, we jointly model the distribution in abundance of the most dominant tree taxa in central Africa, and produce continuous maps of the floristic and functional composition of central African forests. Our results show that the uncertainty in taxon-specific distributions averages out at the community level, and reveal highly deterministic assemblages. We uncover contrasting floristic and functional compositions across climates, soil types and anthropogenic gradients, with functional convergence among types of forest that are floristically dissimilar. Combining these spatial predictions with scenarios of climatic and anthropogenic global change suggests a high vulnerability of the northern and southern forest margins, the Atlantic forests and most forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where both climate and anthropogenic threats are expected to increase sharply by 2085. These results constitute key quantitative benchmarks for scientists and policymakers to shape transnational conservation and management strategies that aim to provide a sustainable future for central African forests.

Evaluation of automated pipelines for tree and plot metric estimation from TLS data in tropical forest areas.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Terrestrial LiDAR scanning (TLS) data are of great interest in forest ecology and management because they provide detailed 3-D information on tree structure. Automated pipelines are increasingly used to process TLS data and extract various tree- and plot-level metrics. With these developments comes the risk of unknown reliability due to an absence of systematic output control. In the present study, we evaluated the estimation errors of various metrics, such as wood volume, at tree and plot levels for four automated pipelines. METHODS: We used TLS data collected from a 1-ha plot of tropical forest, from which 391 trees >10 cm in diameter were fully processed using human assistance to obtain control data for tree- and plot-level metrics. KEY RESULTS: Our results showed that fully automated pipelines led to median relative errors in the quantitative structural model (QSM) volume ranging from 39 to 115 % at the tree level and 10 to 134 % at the 1-ha plot level. For tree-level metrics, the median error for the crown-projected area ranged from 46 to 59 % and that for the crown-hull volume varied from 72 to 88 %. This result suggests that the tree isolation step is the weak link in automated pipeline methods. We further analysed how human assistance with automated pipelines can help reduce the error in the final QSM volume. At the tree scale, we found that isolating trees using human assistance reduced the error in wood volume by a factor of 10. At the 1-ha plot scale, locating trees with human assistance reduced the error by a factor of 3. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that in complex tropical forests, fully automated pipelines may provide relatively unreliable metrics at the tree and plot levels, but limited human assistance inputs can significantly reduce errors.

Spatial validation reveals poor predictive performance of large-scale ecological mapping models.

Mapping aboveground forest biomass is central for assessing the global carbon balance. However, current large-scale maps show strong disparities, despite good validation statistics of their underlying models. Here, we attribute this contradiction to a flaw in the validation methods, which ignore spatial autocorrelation (SAC) in data, leading to overoptimistic assessment of model predictive power. To illustrate this issue, we reproduce the approach of large-scale mapping studies using a massive forest inventory dataset of 11.8 million trees in central Africa to train and validate a random forest model based on multispectral and environmental variables. A standard nonspatial validation method suggests that the model predicts more than half of the forest biomass variation, while spatial validation methods accounting for SAC reveal quasi-null predictive power. This study underscores how a common practice in big data mapping studies shows an apparent high predictive power, even when predictors have poor relationships with the ecological variable of interest, thus possibly leading to erroneous maps and interpretations.

A map of African humid tropical forest aboveground biomass derived from management inventories.

Forest biomass is key in Earth carbon cycle and climate system, and thus under intense scrutiny in the context of international climate change mitigation initiatives (e.g. REDD+). In tropical forests, the spatial distribution of aboveground biomass (AGB) remains, however, highly uncertain. There is increasing recognition that progress is strongly limited by the lack of field observations over large and remote areas. Here, we introduce the Congo basin Forests AGB (CoFor-AGB) dataset that contains AGB estimations and associated uncertainty for 59,857 1-km pixels aggregated from nearly 100,000 ha of in situ forest management inventories for the 2000 - early 2010s period in five central African countries. A comprehensive error propagation scheme suggests that the uncertainty on AGB estimations derived from c. 0.5-ha inventory plots (8.6-15.0%) is only moderately higher than the error obtained from scientific sampling plots (8.3%). CoFor-AGB provides the first large scale view of forest AGB spatial variation from field data in central Africa, the second largest continuous tropical forest domain of the world.

Leveraging Signatures of Plant Functional Strategies in Wood Density Profiles of African Trees to Correct Mass Estimations From Terrestrial Laser Data.

Wood density (WD) relates to important tree functions such as stem mechanics and resistance against pathogens. This functional trait can exhibit high intraindividual variability both radially and vertically. With the rise of LiDAR-based methodologies allowing nondestructive tree volume estimations, failing to account for WD variations related to tree function and biomass investment strategies may lead to large systematic bias in AGB estimations. Here, we use a unique destructive dataset from 822 trees belonging to 51 phylogenetically dispersed tree species harvested across forest types in Central Africa to determine vertical gradients in WD from the stump to the branch tips, how these gradients relate to regeneration guilds and their implications for AGB estimations. We find that decreasing WD from the tree base to the branch tips is characteristic of shade-tolerant species, while light-demanding and pioneer species exhibit stationary or increasing vertical trends. Across all species, the WD range is narrower in tree crowns than at the tree base, reflecting more similar physiological and mechanical constraints in the canopy. Vertical gradients in WD induce significant bias (10%) in AGB estimates when using database-derived species-average WD data. However, the correlation between the vertical gradients and basal WD allows the derivation of general correction models. With the ongoing development of remote sensing products providing 3D information for entire trees and forest stands, our findings indicate promising ways to improve greenhouse gas accounting in tropical countries and advance our understanding of adaptive strategies allowing trees to grow and survive in dense rainforests.

Allometric equations for integrating remote sensing imagery into forest monitoring programmes.

Remote sensing is revolutionizing the way we study forests, and recent technological advances mean we are now able - for the first time - to identify and measure the crown dimensions of individual trees from airborne imagery. Yet to make full use of these data for quantifying forest carbon stocks and dynamics, a new generation of allometric tools which have tree height and crown size at their centre are needed. Here, we compile a global database of 108753 trees for which stem diameter, height and crown diameter have all been measured, including 2395 trees harvested to measure aboveground biomass. Using this database, we develop general allometric models for estimating both the diameter and aboveground biomass of trees from attributes which can be remotely sensed - specifically height and crown diameter. We show that tree height and crown diameter jointly quantify the aboveground biomass of individual trees and find that a single equation predicts stem diameter from these two variables across the world's forests. These new allometric models provide an intuitive way of integrating remote sensing imagery into large-scale forest monitoring programmes and will be of key importance for parameterizing the next generation of dynamic vegetation models.

Improved allometric models to estimate the aboveground biomass of tropical trees.

Terrestrial carbon stock mapping is important for the successful implementation of climate change mitigation policies. Its accuracy depends on the availability of reliable allometric models to infer oven-dry aboveground biomass of trees from census data. The degree of uncertainty associated with previously published pantropical aboveground biomass allometries is large. We analyzed a global database of directly harvested trees at 58 sites, spanning a wide range of climatic conditions and vegetation types (4004 trees ≥ 5 cm trunk diameter). When trunk diameter, total tree height, and wood specific gravity were included in the aboveground biomass model as covariates, a single model was found to hold across tropical vegetation types, with no detectable effect of region or environmental factors. The mean percent bias and variance of this model was only slightly higher than that of locally fitted models. Wood specific gravity was an important predictor of aboveground biomass, especially when including a much broader range of vegetation types than previous studies. The generic tree diameter-height relationship depended linearly on a bioclimatic stress variable E, which compounds indices of temperature variability, precipitation variability, and drought intensity. For cases in which total tree height is unavailable for aboveground biomass estimation, a pantropical model incorporating wood density, trunk diameter, and the variable E outperformed previously published models without height. However, to minimize bias, the development of locally derived diameter-height relationships is advised whenever possible. Both new allometric models should contribute to improve the accuracy of biomass assessment protocols in tropical vegetation types, and to advancing our understanding of architectural and evolutionary constraints on woody plant development.

Assessing aboveground tropical forest biomass using Google Earth canopy images.

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) in efforts to combat climate change requires participating countries to periodically assess their forest resources on a national scale. Such a process is particularly challenging in the tropics because of technical difficulties related to large aboveground forest biomass stocks, restricted availability of affordable, appropriate remote-sensing images, and a lack of accurate forest inventory data. In this paper, we apply the Fourier-based FOTO method of canopy texture analysis to Google Earth's very-high-resolution images of the wet evergreen forests in the Western Ghats of India in order to (1) assess the predictive power of the method on aboveground biomass of tropical forests, (2) test the merits of free Google Earth images relative to their native commercial IKONOS counterparts and (3) highlight further research needs for affordable, accurate regional aboveground biomass estimations. We used the FOTO method to ordinate Fourier spectra of 1436 square canopy images (125 x 125 m) with respect to a canopy grain texture gradient (i.e., a combination of size distribution and spatial pattern of tree crowns), benchmarked against virtual canopy scenes simulated from a set of known forest structure parameters and a 3-D light interception model. We then used 15 1-ha ground plots to demonstrate that both texture gradients provided by Google Earth and IKONOS images strongly correlated with field-observed stand structure parameters such as the density of large trees, total basal area, and aboveground biomass estimated from a regional allometric model. Our results highlight the great potential of the FOTO method applied to Google Earth data for biomass retrieval because the texture-biomass relationship is only subject to 15% relative error, on average, and does not show obvious saturation trends at large biomass values. We also provide the first reliable map of tropical forest aboveground biomass predicted from free Google Earth images.