Analysis of the epidemic situation of the COVID-19 coronavirus infection in Ukraine.

The epidemic process of COVID-19 in the world developed rapidly. The situation with morbidity, despite the establishment of quarantine, the introduction of restrictive anti-epidemic measures, and vaccination, remains difficult. The results of research on the influence of meteorological factors on the dynamics of the incidence of COVID-19, hospitalization, and mortality are ambiguous and contradictory. The purpose of this study is to analyze the indicators of morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality from COVID-19 in Ukraine, and to establish the level of influence of meteorological factors on them. A high variation in morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality rates was observed in Ukraine, in 2020-2021. A total of 3 waves of disease growth were established. The curve of hospitalization indicators of patients with COVID-19 had a correlation dependence on the incidence curve r = 0.766 (р <0.05), the maximum rates of hospitalization and mortality were registered in September-December 2021. A direct strong correlation was established between the frequency of registration of cases of COVID-19 and mortality - r = 0.899 (р <0.05). Most cases of COVID-19 were registered in the cold season, the least in June-August. Inverse correlations of moderate strength were established between the indicators of morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality and air temperature levels (-0.370< r <-0.461). Direct correlations of average strength (0.538< r <0.632) were established with the levels of relative air humidity.

Forecasting of COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine using the method of exponential smoothing.

Coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease of viral etiology. SARS-CoV-2 virus was first identified during the investigation of the outbreak of respiratory disease in Wuhan, China in December 2019. And already on March 11, 2020 COVID-19 in the world was characterized by the WHO as a pandemic. In Ukraine the situation with incidence COVID-19 remains difficult. The purpose of this study is to to develop a mathematical forecasting model for COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine using an exponential smoothing method. The article analyzes reports on basic COVID-19 incidence rates from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021. In order to determine the forecast levels of statistical indicators that characterize the epidemic process of COVID-19 the method of exponential smoothing was used. It is expected that from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021 the epidemic situation of COVID-19 incidence will stabilize. The indicator of "active patients" will range from 159.04 to 353.63 per 100 thousand people. The indicator of "hospitalized patients" can reach 15.43 and "fatalities" ‒ 1.87. The use of the method of exponential smoothing based on time series models for modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence allows to develop and implement scientifically sound methods in order to prevent, quickly prepare health care institutions for hospitalization.

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALIYSIS OF PERTUSSIS MORBIDITY IN UKRAINE.

OBJECTIVE: The aim: To improve epidemiological monitoring of pertussis by analyzing the disease morbidity during 1995-2017 in Ukraine, to make a prognosis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and methods: Analysis of the pertussis morbidity during 1995-2017 using the data of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. The cyclicity was determined by Fourier spectral analysis. The models of prognosis were constructed using polyharmonic regression and an exponential smoothing algorithm. Cartographic analysis and integrated indicators (multiyear index of the prevalence rate, mean square deviation, mean the multiyear pace of the gain in the prevalence rate) were used to determine the areas of risk. Summarized data were used to calculate the generalized coefficient. RESULTS: Results: The pertussis morbidity cycle has 5 years intervals in Ukraine. The prognosis is for increasing the pertussis morbidity from 4.91-5.54 to 5.48-7.06 per 100.000 people. The generalized coefficient was significantly higher in western part (83.3%) than in central (50.0%) and eastern (16.6%) parts. The study showed that population reproduction rates, natural population increase, and the proportion of people against vaccination were higher in the western part than in other parts of the country. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: The pertussis cyclicity depends on the internal mechanisms of interaction in the ecological system. There is a prognosis of worsening the epidemic situation of pertussis spreading. The risk area is the western part of Ukraine, which is characterized by active demographic processes and a greater number of people who are negative about vaccination.

Epidemiological peculiarities and analysis of the incidence time series of viral airborne infections in Ukraine in 2010-2020.

Illnesses with aerosol mode of transmission dominate in the structure of infectious diseases. Influenced by natural, social and biological factors, epidemiological characteristics of the infectious diseases change, that's why the objective of this research was to determine modern peculiar features of the epidemiological situation regarding viral infections with aerosol transmission in Ukraine. Influenza incidence ranged from 31.14‒184.45 per 100 thousand people, other acute respiratory viral infections from 13685.24‒ 18382.5. Epidemic process of measles was characterized by increasing incidence in 2018 and 2019. In Ukraine, there is a tendency to reduce the incidence of rubella and mumps (р <0.05). The positive effect of immunization on the incidence of mumps and rubella has been established. Vaccination against measles cannot be considered as evidence of immunity against measles. The demographic situation in Ukraine may indirectly influence the intensity of the epidemic situation of viral infections with aerosol transmission.