The impact of early death on birth counts in the United States, 1950 to 2019.

In a previous issue of PNAS Nexus, Bor et al. quantified the number of "missing Americans"-the deaths that would have been averted if the United States had experienced the mortality conditions of other wealthy nations. In 2019 alone, their estimates indicate that more than 100,000 individuals in reproductive ages (15-49 years) would have survived. The concept of the "missing Americans" is a valuable one, but here we argue that it is incomplete because it does not include children that would have been born to those who died an early death. We examine 3 indicators to assess the strength of the mortality-fertility nexus at the population level, showing that mortality more negatively affects birth counts in the United States than in other wealthy nations. Using the mortality conditions in other wealthy nations as a reference, we estimate that between 2010 and 2019 alone, approximately 200,000 children were not born in the United States due to the premature death of their potential mothers. Our findings highlight that improving morbidity and mortality among people of reproductive age-without compromising their reproductive autonomy-is critical in the United States.

Projecting the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population structure.

The immediate, direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the United States population are substantial. Millions of people were affected by the pandemic: many died, others did not give birth, and still others could not migrate. Research that has examined these individual phenomena is important, but fragmented. The disruption of mortality, fertility, and migration jointly affected U.S. population counts and, consequently, future population structure. We use data from the United Nations World Population Prospects and the cohort component projection method to isolate the effect of the pandemic on U.S. population estimates until 2060. If the pandemic had not occurred, we project that the population of the U.S. would have 2.1 million (0.63%) more people in 2025, and 1.7 million (0.44%) more people in 2060. Pandemic-induced migration changes are projected to have a larger long-term effect on future population size than mortality, despite comparable short-term effects.

Lifetime risk of maternal near miss morbidity: a novel indicator of maternal health.

BACKGROUND: The lifetime risk of maternal death quantifies the probability that a 15-year-old girl will die of a maternal cause in her reproductive lifetime. Its intuitive appeal means it is a widely used summary measure for advocacy and international comparisons of maternal health. However, relative to mortality, women are at an even higher risk of experiencing life-threatening maternal morbidity called 'maternal near miss' (MNM) events-complications so severe that women almost die. As maternal mortality continues to decline, health indicators that include information on both fatal and non-fatal maternal outcomes are required. METHODS: We propose a novel measure-the lifetime risk of MNM-to estimate the cumulative risk that a 15-year-old girl will experience a MNM in her reproductive lifetime, accounting for mortality between the ages 15 and 49 years. We apply the method to the case of Namibia (2019) using estimates of fertility and survival from the United Nations World Population Prospects along with nationally representative data on the MNM ratio. RESULTS: We estimate a lifetime risk of MNM in Namibia in 2019 of between 1 in 40 and 1 in 35 when age-disaggregated MNM data are used, and 1 in 38 when a summary estimate for ages 15-49 years is used. This compares to a lifetime risk of maternal death of 1 in 142 and yields a lifetime risk of severe maternal outcome (MNM or death) of 1 in 30. CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime risk of MNM is an urgently needed indicator of maternal morbidity because existing measures (the MNM ratio or rate) do not capture the cumulative risk over the reproductive life course, accounting for fertility and mortality levels.

Family demographic processes and in-work poverty: A systematic review.

This article reviews ever published quantitative evidence on in-work poverty and family demographic processes in OECD and EU-28 countries. Despite the increasing attention to in-work poverty in Europe and beyond, a comprehensive and critical review on how family demographic processes shape in-work poverty risks is still missing. In this systematic review, we first provide a quantitative review of results from analyses that estimated the association between in-work poverty and parental home leaving, union formation, marriage, parenthood, and dissolution of non-marital and marital unions. This allows us to formulate tentative conclusions about whether and in which direction family demographic processes are associated with in-work poverty. Second, we discuss in detail conceptual and methodological advances in in-work poverty research, such as longitudinal analytical designs or attempts to make in-work poverty research more sensitive to policy context, gender, and the life course. Our review highlights theoretical and methodological challenges for future studies linking in-work poverty and family demography.

Concepts for migration-sensitive health monitoring.

According to microcensus data, nearly one quarter of the German population has a migration background. This means that either themselves or at least one parent was born without German citizenship. Based on the currently available data and due to the underrepresentation of specific population groups, representative findings on the health of the total population residing in Germany are only possible to a limited degree. Against this backdrop, the Robert Koch Institute initiated the Improving Health Monitoring in Migrant Populations (IMIRA) project. The project aims to establish a migration-sensitive health monitoring system and to better represent people with a migration background in health surveys conducted by the Robert Koch Institute. In this context it is crucial to review and further develop relevant migration-sensitive concepts and appropriate surveying instruments. To achieve this, the concepts of acculturation, discrimination, religion and subjective social status were selected. This article theoretically embeds these concepts. Furthermore, we describe their application in epidemiology as well as provide a proposal on how to measure and operationalise these concepts. Moreover, recommendations for action are provided regarding the potential application of these concepts in health monitoring at the Robert Koch Institute.