Fusing strategic risk and futures methods to inform long-term strategic planning: case of water utilities.

Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal's largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning-a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches-risk and futures-and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility's (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.

Whither regulation, risk and water safety plans? Case studies from Malaysia and from England and Wales.

We explore the interplay between preventative risk management and regulatory style for the implementation of water safety plans in Malaysia and in England and Wales, two jurisdictions with distinct philosophies of approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 32 water safety professionals in Malaysia, 23 in England and Wales, supported by 6 Focus Group Discussions (n = 53 participants). A grounded theory approach produced insights on the transition from drinking water quality surveillance to preventative risk management. Themes familiar to this type of regulatory transition emerged, including concerns about compliance policy; overseeing the risk management controls of regulatees with varied competencies and funds available to drive change; and the portfolio of interventions suited to a more facilitative regulatory style. Because the potential harm from waterborne illness is high where pathogen exposures occur, the transition to risk-informed regulation demands mature organisational cultures among water utilities and regulators, and a laser-like focus on ensuring risk management controls are delivered within water supply systems.

Risk assessments for quality-assured, source-segregated composts and anaerobic digestates for a circular bioeconomy in the UK.

A circular economy relies on demonstrating the quality and environmental safety of wastes that are recovered and reused as products. Policy-level risk assessments, using generalised exposure scenarios, and informed by stakeholder communities have been used to appraise the acceptability of necessary changes to legislation, allowing wastes to be valued, reused and marketed. Through an extensive risk assessment exercise, summarised in this paper, we explore the burden of proof required to offer safety assurance to consumer and brand-sensitive food sectors in light of attempts to declassify, as wastes, quality-assured, source-segregated compost and anaerobic digestate products in the United Kingdom. We report the residual microbiological and chemical risks estimated for both products in land application scenarios and discuss these in the context of an emerging UK bioeconomy worth £52bn per annum. Using plausible worst case assumptions, as demanded by the quality food sector, risk estimates and hazard quotients were estimated to be low or negligible. For example, the human health risk of E. coli 0157 illness from exposure to microbial residuals in quality-assured composts, through a ready-to-eat vegetable consumption exposure route, was estimated at ~10-8 per person per annum. For anaerobic digestion residues, 7 × 10-3cases of E. coli 0157 were estimated per annum, a potential contribution of 0.0007% of total UK cases. Hazard quotients for potential chemical contaminants in both products were insufficient in magnitude to merit detailed quantitative risk assessments. Stakeholder engagement and expert review was also a substantive feature of this study. We conclude that quality-assured, source-segregated products applied to land, under UK quality protocols and waste processing standards, pose negligible risks to human, animal, environmental and crop receptors, providing that risk management controls set within the standards and protocols are adhered to.

Scoping studies to establish the capability and utility of a real-time bioaerosol sensor to characterise emissions from environmental sources.

A novel dual excitation wavelength based bioaerosol sensor with multiple fluorescence bands called Spectral Intensity Bioaerosol Sensor (SIBS) has been assessed across five contrasting outdoor environments. The mean concentrations of total and fluorescent particles across the sites were highly variable being the highest at the agricultural farm (2.6 cm-3 and 0.48 cm-3, respectively) and the composting site (2.32 cm-3 and 0.46 cm-3, respectively) and the lowest at the dairy farm (1.03 cm-3 and 0.24 cm-3, respectively) and the sewage treatment works (1.03 cm-3 and 0.25 cm-3, respectively). In contrast, the number-weighted fluorescent fraction was lowest at the agricultural site (0.18) in comparison to the other sites indicating high variability in nature and magnitude of emissions from environmental sources. The fluorescence emissions data demonstrated that the spectra at different sites were multimodal with intensity differences largely at wavelengths located in secondary emission peaks for λex 280 and λex 370. This finding suggests differences in the molecular composition of emissions at these sites which can help to identify distinct fluorescence signature of different environmental sources. Overall this study demonstrated that SIBS provides additional spectral information compared to existing instruments and capability to resolve spectrally integrated signals from relevant biological fluorophores could improve selectivity and thus enhance discrimination and classification strategies for real-time characterisation of bioaerosols from environmental sources. However, detailed lab-based measurements in conjunction with real-world studies and improved numerical methods are required to optimise and validate these highly resolved spectral signatures with respect to the diverse atmospherically relevant biological fluorophores.

Environmental regulation in transition: Policy officials' views of regulatory instruments and their mapping to environmental risks.

This study re-analysed 14 semi-structured interviews with policy officials from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) to explore the use of a variety of regulatory instruments and different levels of risk across 14 policy domains and 18 separately named risks. Interviews took place within a policy environment of a better regulation agenda and of broader regulatory reform. Of 619 (n) coded references to 5 categories of regulatory instrument, 'command and control' regulation (n = 257) and support mechanisms (n = 118) dominated the discussions, with a preference for 'command and control' cited in 8 of the policy domains. A framing analysis revealed officials' views on instrument effectiveness, including for sub-categories of the 5 key instruments. Views were mixed, though notably positive for economic instruments including taxation, fiscal instruments and information provision. An overlap analysis explored officials' mapping of public environmental risks to instrument types suited to their management. While officials frequently cite risk concepts generally within discussions, the extent of overlap for risks of specific significance was low across all risks. Only 'command and control' was mapped to risks of moderate significance in likelihood and impact severity. These results show that policy makers still prefer 'command and control' approaches when a certainty of outcome is sought and that alternative means are sought for lower risk situations. The detailed reasons for selection, including the mapping of certain instruments to specific risk characteristics, is still developing.

Appraising longitudinal trends in the strategic risks cited by risk managers in the international water utility sector, 2005-2015.

We report dynamic changes in the priorities for strategic risks faced by international water utilities over a 10year period, as cited by managers responsible for managing them. A content analysis of interviews with three cohorts of risk managers in the water sector was undertaken. Interviews probed the focus risk managers' were giving to strategic risks within utilities, as well as specific questions on risk analysis tools (2005); risk management cultures (2011) and the integration of risk management with corporate decision-making (2015). The coding frequency of strategic (business, enterprise, corporate) risk terms from 18 structured interviews (2005) and 28 semi-structured interviews (12 in 2011; 16 in 2015) was used to appraise changes in the perceived importance of strategic risks within the sector. The aggregated coding frequency across the study period, and changes in the frequency of strategic risks cited at three interview periods identified infrastructure assets as the most significant risk over the period and suggests an emergence of extrinsic risk over time. Extended interviews with three utility risk managers (2016) from the UK, Canada and the US were then used to contextualise the findings. This research supports the ongoing focus on infrastructure resilience and the increasing prevalence of extrinsic risk within the water sector, as reported by the insurance sector and by water research organisations. The extended interviews provided insight into how strategic risks are now driving the implementation agenda within utilities, and into how utilities can secure tangible business value from proactive risk governance. Strategic external risks affecting the sector are on the rise, involve more players and are less controllable from within a utility's own organisational boundaries. Proportionate risk management processes and structures provide oversight and assurance, whilst allowing a focus on the tangible business value that comes from managing strategic risks well.

Strategic risk appraisal. Comparing expert- and literature-informed consequence assessments for environmental policy risks receiving national attention.

Strategic risk appraisal (SRA) has been applied to compare diverse policy level risks to and from the environment in England and Wales. Its application has relied on expert-informed assessments of the potential consequences from residual risks that attract policy attention at the national scale. Here we compare consequence assessments, across environmental, economic and social impact categories that draw on 'expert'- and 'literature-based' analyses of the evidence for 12 public risks appraised by Government. For environmental consequences there is reasonable agreement between the two sources of assessment, with expert-informed assessments providing a narrower dispersion of impact severity and with median values similar in scale to those produced by an analysis of the literature. The situation is more complex for economic consequences, with a greater spread in the median values, less consistency between the two assessment types and a shift toward higher severity values across the risk portfolio. For social consequences, the spread of severity values is greater still, with no consistent trend between the severities of impact expressed by the two types of assessment. For the latter, the findings suggest the need for a fuller representation of socioeconomic expertise in SRA and the workshops that inform SRA output.

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Testing UnISERA, a guide for uncertainty assessment.

A means for identifying and prioritising the treatment of uncertainty (UnISERA) in environmental risk assessments (ERAs) is tested, using three risk domains where ERA is an established requirement and one in which ERA practice is emerging. UnISERA's development draws on 19 expert elicitations across genetically modified higher plants, particulate matter, and agricultural pesticide release and is stress tested here for engineered nanomaterials (ENM). We are concerned with the severity of uncertainty; its nature; and its location across four accepted stages of ERAs. Using an established uncertainty scale, the risk characterisation stage of ERA harbours the highest severity level of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating expressions of risk. Combined epistemic and aleatory uncertainty is the dominant nature of uncertainty. The dominant location of uncertainty is associated with data in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. Testing UnISERA produced agreements of 55%, 90%, and 80% for the severity level, nature and location dimensions of uncertainty between the combined case studies and the ENM stress test. UnISERA enables environmental risk analysts to prioritise risk assessment phases, groups of tasks, or individual ERA tasks and it can direct them towards established methods for uncertainty treatment.

Predicting Aspergillus fumigatus exposure from composting facilities using a dispersion model: A conditional calibration and validation.

Bioaerosols are released in elevated quantities from composting facilities and are associated with negative health effects, although dose-response relationships are unclear. Exposure levels are difficult to quantify as established sampling methods are costly, time-consuming and current data provide limited temporal and spatial information. Confidence in dispersion model outputs in this context would be advantageous to provide a more detailed exposure assessment. We present the calibration and validation of a recognised atmospheric dispersion model (ADMS) for bioaerosol exposure assessments. The model was calibrated by a trial and error optimisation of observed Aspergillus fumigatus concentrations at different locations around a composting site. Validation was performed using a second dataset of measured concentrations for a different site. The best fit between modelled and measured data was achieved when emissions were represented as a single area source, with a temperature of 29°C. Predicted bioaerosol concentrations were within an order of magnitude of measured values (1000-10,000CFU/m3) at the validation site, once minor adjustments were made to reflect local differences between the sites (r2>0.7 at 150, 300, 500 and 600m downwind of source). Results suggest that calibrated dispersion modelling can be applied to make reasonable predictions of bioaerosol exposures at multiple sites and may be used to inform site regulation and operational management.

Risk management for drinking water safety in low and middle income countries - cultural influences on water safety plan (WSP) implementation in urban water utilities.

We investigated cultural influences on the implementation of water safety plans (WSPs) using case studies from WSP pilots in India, Uganda and Jamaica. A comprehensive thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews (n=150 utility customers, n=32 WSP 'implementers' and n=9 WSP 'promoters'), field observations and related documents revealed 12 cultural themes, offered as 'enabling', 'limiting', or 'neutral', that influence WSP implementation in urban water utilities to varying extents. Aspects such as a 'deliver first, safety later' mind set; supply system knowledge management and storage practices; and non-compliance are deemed influential. Emergent themes of cultural influence (ET1 to ET12) are discussed by reference to the risk management, development studies and institutional culture literatures; by reference to their positive, negative or neutral influence on WSP implementation. The results have implications for the utility endorsement of WSPs, for the impact of organisational cultures on WSP implementation; for the scale-up of pilot studies; and they support repeated calls from practitioner communities for cultural attentiveness during WSP design. Findings on organisational cultures mirror those from utilities in higher income nations implementing WSPs - leadership, advocacy among promoters and customers (not just implementers) and purposeful knowledge management are critical to WSP success.

Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action.

Insights into the biodegradation of weathered hydrocarbons in contaminated soils by bioaugmentation and nutrient stimulation.

The potential for biotransformation of weathered hydrocarbon residues in soils collected from two commercial oil refinery sites (Soil A and B) was studied in microcosm experiments. Soil A has previously been subjected to on-site bioremediation and it was believed that no further degradation was possible while soil B has not been subjected to any treatment. A number of amendment strategies including bioaugmentation with hydrocarbon degrader, biostimulation with nutrients and soil grinding, were applied to the microcosms as putative biodegradation improvement strategies. The hydrocarbon concentrations in each amendment group were monitored throughout 112 days incubation. Microcosms treated with biostimulation (BS) and biostimulation/bioaugmentation (BS + BA) showed the most significant reductions in the aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbon fractions. However, soil grinding was shown to reduce the effectiveness of a nutrient treatment on the extent of biotransformation by up to 25% and 20% for the aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbon fractions, respectively. This is likely due to the disruption to the indigenous microbial community in the soil caused by grinding. Further, ecotoxicological responses (mustard seed germination and Microtox assays) showed that a reduction of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) concentration in soil was not directly correlable to reduction in toxicity; thus monitoring TPH alone is not sufficient for assessing the environmental risk of a contaminated site after remediation.

Better by design: business preferences for environmental regulatory reform.

We present the preferences for environmental regulatory reform expressed by 30 UK businesses and industry bodies from 5 sectors. While five strongly preferred voluntary regulation, seven expressed doubts about its effectiveness, and 18 expressed no general preference between instrument types. Voluntary approaches were valued for flexibility and lower burdens, but direct regulation offered stability and a level playing field. Respondents sought regulatory frameworks that: are coherent; balance clarity, prescription and flexibility; are enabled by positive regulatory relationships; administratively efficient; targeted according to risk magnitude and character; evidence-based and that deliver long-term market stability for regulatees. Anticipated differences in performance between types of instrument can be undermined by poor implementation. Results underline the need for policy makers and regulators to tailor an effective mix of instruments for a given sector, and to overcome analytical, institutional and political barriers to greater coherence, to better coordinate existing instruments and tackle new environmental challenges as they emerge.

Influence of mature compost amendment on total and bioavailable polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in contaminated soils.

A laboratory microcosm study was carried out to assess the influence of compost amendment on the degradation and bioavailability of PAHs in contaminated soils. Three soils, contaminated with diesel, coal ash and coal tar, respectively, were amended with two composts made from contrasting feedstock (green waste and predominantly meat waste) at two different rates (250 and 750 t ha(-1)) and incubated for 8 months. During this period the treatments were sampled for PAH analysis after 0, 3, 6 and 8 months. Total and bioavailable fractions were obtained by sequential ultrasonic solvent extraction and hydroxypropyl-ß-cyclodextrin extraction, respectively, and PAHs were identified and quantified by GC-MS. Bioavailability decrease due to sorption was only observed at the first 3 months in the diesel spiked soil. After 8 months, compost addition resulted in over 90% loss of total PAHs irrespective of soil types. Desorption and degradation contributed to 30% and 70%, respectively, of the PAH loss in the spiked soil, while PAH loss in the other two soils resulted from 40% enhanced desorption and 60% enhanced degradation. Compost type and application rates had little influence on PAH bioavailability, but higher PAH removal was observed at higher initial concentration during the early stage of incubation. The bioavailable fraction of PAH was inversely correlated to the number of benzene rings and the octanol-water partition coefficient. Further degradation was not likely after 8-month although over 30% of the residual PAHs were bioavailable, which highlighted the application of bioavailability concept during remediation activities.

Temporal and spatial changes in the microbial bioaerosol communities in green-waste composting.

In this study, the microbial community within compost, emitted into the airstream, downwind and upwind from a composting facility was characterized and compared through phospholipid fatty acid analysis and 16S rRNA gene analysis using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and bar-coded pyrosequencing techniques. All methods used suggested that green-waste composting had a significant impact upon bioaerosol community composition. Daily variations of the on-site airborne community showed how specific site parameters such as compost process activity and meteorological conditions affect bioaerosol communities, although more data are required to qualify and quantify the causes for these variations. A notable feature was the dominance of Pseudomonas in downwind samples, suggesting that this genus can disperse downwind in elevated abundances. Thirty-nine phylotypes were homologous to plant or human phylotypes containing pathogens and were found within compost, on-site and downwind microbial communities. Although the significance of this finding in terms of potential health impact was beyond the scope of this study, it clearly illustrated the potential of molecular techniques to improve our understanding of the impact that green-waste composting emissions may have on the human health.

Character of environmental harms: overcoming implementation challenges with policy makers and regulators.

Policy makers and regulators are charged with the daunting task of comparing incommensurate environmental risks to inform strategic decisions on interventions. Here we present a policy-level framework intended to support strategic decision processes concerning environmental risks within the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). The framework provides the structure by which risk-based evidence may be collated and by assessing the value of harm expressed by different environmental policy areas against a consistent objective (e.g., sustainable development), we begin to form a basis for relative comparison. This research integrates the prior art, examples of best practice, and intimate end-user input to build a qualitative assessment informed by expert judgment. Supported by contextual narratives, the framework has proven successful in securing organizational support and stimulating debate about proportionate mitigation activity, resource allocation, and shifts in current risk thinking.

Mineralisation of target hydrocarbons in three contaminated soils from former refinery facilities.

This study investigated the microbial degradation of (14)C-labelled hexadecane, octacosane, phenanthrene and pyrene and considered how degradation might be optimised in three genuinely hydrocarbon-contaminated soils from former petroleum refinery sites. Hydrocarbon mineralisation by the indigenous microbial community was monitored over 23 d. Hydrocarbon mineralisation enhancement by nutrient amendment (biostimulation), hydrocarbon degrader addition (bioaugmentation) and combined nutrient and degrader amendment, was also explored. The ability of indigenous soil microflora to mineralise (14)C-target hydrocarbons was appreciable; ≥ 16% mineralised in all soils. Generally, addition of nutrients or degraders increased the rates and extents of mineralisation of (14)C-hydrocarbons. However, the addition of nutrients and degraders in combination had a negative effect upon (14)C-octacosane mineralisation and resulted in lower extents of mineralisation in the three soils. In general, the rates and extents of mineralisation will be dependent upon treatment type, nature of the contamination and adaptation of the ingenious microbial community.

Multimedia fate of petroleum hydrocarbons in the soil: oil matrix of constructed biopiles.

A dynamic multimedia fugacity model was used to evaluate the partitioning and fate of petroleum hydrocarbon fractions and aromatic indicator compounds within the soil: oil matrix of three biopiles. Each biopile was characterised by four compartments: air, water, soil solids and non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL). Equilibrium partitioning in biopile A and B suggested that most fractions resided in the NAPL, with the exception of the aromatic fraction with an equivalent carbon number from 5 to 7 (EC(5-7)). In Biopile C, which had the highest soil organic carbon content (13%), the soil solids were the most important compartment for both light aliphatic fractions (EC(5-6) and EC(6-8)) and aromatic fractions, excluding the EC(16-21) and EC(21-35). Our starting hypothesis was that hydrocarbons do not degrade within the NAPL. This was supported by the agreement between predicted and measured hydrocarbon concentrations in Biopile B when the degradation rate constant in NAPL was set to zero. In all scenarios, biodegradation in soil was predicted as the dominant removal process for all fractions, except for the aliphatic EC(5-6) which was predominantly lost via volatilization. The absence of an explicit NAPL phase in the model yielded a similar prediction of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) behaviour; however the predicted concentrations in the air and water phases were significantly increased with consequent changes in potential mobility. Further comparisons between predictions and measured data, particularly concentrations in the soil mobile phases, are required to ascertain the true value of including an explicit NAPL in models of this kind.

The role of organizational culture and leadership in water safety plan implementation for improved risk management.

Appropriate implementation of WSPs offers an important opportunity to engage in and promote preventative risk management within water utilities. To ensure success, the whole organization, especially executive management, need to be advocates. Illustrated by two case studies, we discuss the influence of organizational culture on buy-in and commitment to public health protection and WSPs. Despite an internal desire to undertake risk management, some aspects of organizational culture prevented these from reaching full potential. Enabling cultural features included: camaraderie; competition; proactive, involved leaders; community focus; customer service mentality; transparency; accountability; competent workforce; empowerment; appreciation of successes, and a continual improvement culture. Blocking features included: poor communication; inflexibility; complacency; lack of awareness, interest or reward and coercion. We urge water utilities to consider the influence of organizational culture on the success and sustainability of WSP adoption, and better understand how effective leadership can mould culture to support implementation.

Intervention strategies for carcass disposal: pareto analysis of exposures for exotic disease outbreaks.

An enhanced methodology for the policy-level prioritization of intervention options during carcass disposal is presented. Pareto charts provide a semiquantitative analysis of opportunities for multiple exposures to human health, animal health, and the wider environment during carcass disposal; they identify critical control points for risk management and assist in waste technology assessment. Eighty percent of the total availability of more than 1300 potential exposures to human, animal, or environmental receptors is represented by 16 processes, these being dominated by on-farm collection and carcass processing, reinforcing the criticality of effective controls during early stages of animal culling and waste processing. Exposures during mass burials are dominated by ground- and surface-water exposures with noise and odor nuisance prevalent for mass pyres, consistent with U.K. experience. Pareto charts are discussed in the context of other visualization formats for policy officials and promoted as a communication tool for informing the site-specific risk assessments required during the operational phases of exotic disease outbreaks.