ABSTRACT
Background: Traditional health economic evaluations of antimicrobials currently underestimate their value to wider society. They can be supplemented by additional value elements including insurance value, which captures the value of an antimicrobial in preventing or mitigating impacts of adverse risk events. Despite being commonplace in other sectors, constituents of the impacts and approaches for estimating insurance value have not been investigated. Objectives: This study assessed the insurance value of a novel gram-negative antimicrobial from operational healthcare, wider population health, productivity, and informal care perspectives. Methods: A novel mixed-methods approach was used to model insurance value in the United Kingdom: (1) literature review and multidisciplinary expert workshops to identify risk events for 4 relevant scenarios: ward closures, unavoidable shortage of conventional antimicrobials, viral respiratory pandemics, and catastrophic antimicrobial resistance (AMR); (2) parameterizing mitigable costs and frequencies of risk events across perspectives and scenarios; (3) estimating insurance value through a Monte Carlo simulation model for extreme events and a dynamic disease transmission model. Results: The mean insurance value across all scenarios and perspectives over 10 years in the UK was £718 million, should AMR remain unchanged, where only £134 million related to operational healthcare costs. It would be 50%-70% higher if AMR steadily increased or if a more risk-averse view (1-in-10 year downside) of future events is taken. Discussion: The overall insurance value if AMR remains at current levels (a conservative projection), is over 5 times greater than insurance value from just the operational healthcare costs perspective, traditionally the sole perspective used in health budgeting. Insurance value was generally larger for nationwide or universal (catastrophic AMR, pandemic, and conventional antimicrobial shortages) rather than localized (ward closure) scenarios, across perspectives. Components of this insurance value match previously published estimates of operational costs and mortality impacts. Conclusions: Insurance value of novel antimicrobials can be systematically modeled and substantially augments their traditional health economic value in normal circumstances. These approaches are generalizable to similar health interventions and form a framework for health systems and governments to capture broader value in health technology assessments, improve healthcare access, and increase resilience by planning for adverse scenarios.
ABSTRACT
Background: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is increasing, but increasing longevity among persons with diagnosed diabetes may be is associated with more extensive and diverse types of morbidity. The extent and breadth of morbidity and how this varies across sub-groups is unclear and could have important clinical and public health implications. We aimed to estimate comorbidity profiles in people with T2DM and variations across sub-groups and over time. Methods: We identified approximately 224,000 people with T2DM in the Discover-NOW dataset, a real-world primary care database from 2000 to 2020 covering 2.5 million people across North-West London, England, linked to hospital records. We generated a mixed prevalence and incidence study population through repeated annual cross sections, and included a broad set of 35 comorbidities covering traditional T2DM conditions, emerging T2DM conditions and other common conditions.We estimated annual age-standardised prevalence of comorbidities, over the course of the disease in people with T2DM and several sub-groups. Findings: Multimorbidity (two or more chronic conditions) is common in people with T2DM and increasing, but the comorbidity profiles of people with T2DM vary substantially. Nearly 30% of T2DM patients had three or more comorbidities at diagnosis, increasing to 60% of patients ten years later. Two of the five commonest comorbidities at diagnosis were traditional T2DM conditions (hypertension (37%) and ischaemic heart disease (10%)) the other three were not (depression (15%), back pain (25%) and osteoarthritis (11%)). The prevalence of each increased during the course of the disease, with more than one in three patients having back pain and one in four having depression ten years post diagnosis.People with five or more comorbidities at diagnosis had higher prevalence of each of the 35 comorbidities. Hypertension (73%) was the commonest comorbidity at diagnosis in this group; followed by back pain (69%), depression (67%), asthma (45%) and osteoarthritis (36%). People with obesity at diagnosis had substantially different comorbidity profiles to those without, and the five commonest comorbidities were 50% more common in this group. Interpretation: Preventative and clinical interventions alongside care pathways for people with T2DM should transition to reflect the diverse set of causes driving persistent morbidity. This would benefit both patients and healthcare systems alike. Funding: The study was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE).
