Machine learning survival models trained on clinical data to identify high risk patients with hormone responsive HER2 negative breast cancer.

For endocrine-positive Her2 negative breast cancer patients at an early stage, the benefit of adding chemotherapy to adjuvant endocrine therapy is not still confirmed. Several genomic tests are available on the market but are very expensive. Therefore, there is the urgent need to explore novel reliable and less expensive prognostic tools in this setting. In this paper, we shown a machine learning survival model to estimate Invasive Disease-Free Events trained on clinical and histological data commonly collected in clinical practice. We collected clinical and cytohistological outcomes of 145 patients referred to Istituto Tumori "Giovanni Paolo II". Three machine learning survival models are compared with the Cox proportional hazards regression according to time-dependent performance metrics evaluated in cross-validation. The c-index at 10 years obtained by random survival forest, gradient boosting, and component-wise gradient boosting is stabled with or without feature selection at approximately 0.68 in average respect to 0.57 obtained to Cox model. Moreover, machine learning survival models have accurately discriminated low- and high-risk patients, and so a large group which can be spared additional chemotherapy to hormone therapy. The preliminary results obtained by including only clinical determinants are encouraging. The integrated use of data already collected in clinical practice for routine diagnostic investigations, if properly analyzed, can reduce time and costs of the genomic tests.

Dynamical Quantum Phase Transitions of the Schwinger Model: Real-Time Dynamics on IBM Quantum.

Simulating the real-time dynamics of gauge theories represents a paradigmatic use case to test the hardware capabilities of a quantum computer, since it can involve non-trivial input states' preparation, discretized time evolution, long-distance entanglement, and measurement in a noisy environment. We implemented an algorithm to simulate the real-time dynamics of a few-qubit system that approximates the Schwinger model in the framework of lattice gauge theories, with specific attention to the occurrence of a dynamical quantum phase transition. Limitations in the simulation capabilities on IBM Quantum were imposed by noise affecting the application of single-qubit and two-qubit gates, which combine in the decomposition of Trotter evolution. The experimental results collected in quantum algorithm runs on IBM Quantum were compared with noise models to characterize the performance in the absence of error mitigation.

Analyzing breast cancer invasive disease event classification through explainable artificial intelligence.

Introduction: Recently, accurate machine learning and deep learning approaches have been dedicated to the investigation of breast cancer invasive disease events (IDEs), such as recurrence, contralateral and second cancers. However, such approaches are poorly interpretable. Methods: Thus, we designed an Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) framework to investigate IDEs within a cohort of 486 breast cancer patients enrolled at IRCCS Istituto Tumori "Giovanni Paolo II" in Bari, Italy. Using Shapley values, we determined the IDE driving features according to two periods, often adopted in clinical practice, of 5 and 10 years from the first tumor diagnosis. Results: Age, tumor diameter, surgery type, and multiplicity are predominant within the 5-year frame, while therapy-related features, including hormone, chemotherapy schemes and lymphovascular invasion, dominate the 10-year IDE prediction. Estrogen Receptor (ER), proliferation marker Ki67 and metastatic lymph nodes affect both frames. Discussion: Thus, our framework aims at shortening the distance between AI and clinical practice.

A machine learning ensemble approach for 5- and 10-year breast cancer invasive disease event classification.

Designing targeted treatments for breast cancer patients after primary tumor removal is necessary to prevent the occurrence of invasive disease events (IDEs), such as recurrence, metastasis, contralateral and second tumors, over time. However, due to the molecular heterogeneity of this disease, predicting the outcome and efficacy of the adjuvant therapy is challenging. A novel ensemble machine learning classification approach was developed to address the task of producing prognostic predictions of the occurrence of breast cancer IDEs at both 5- and 10-years. The method is based on the concept of voting among multiple models to give a final prediction for each individual patient. Promising results were achieved on a cohort of 529 patients, whose data, related to primary breast cancer, were provided by Istituto Tumori "Giovanni Paolo II" in Bari, Italy. Our proposal greatly improves the performances returned by the baseline original model, i.e., without voting, finally reaching a median AUC value of 77.1% and 76.3% for the IDE prediction at 5-and 10-years, respectively. Finally, the proposed approach allows to promote more intelligible decisions and then a greater acceptability in clinical practice since it returns an explanation of the IDE prediction for each individual patient through the voting procedure.

Robustness Evaluation of a Deep Learning Model on Sagittal and Axial Breast DCE-MRIs to Predict Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy.

To date, some artificial intelligence (AI) methods have exploited Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging (DCE-MRI) to identify finer tumor properties as potential earlier indicators of pathological Complete Response (pCR) in breast cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). However, they work either for sagittal or axial MRI protocols. More flexible AI tools, to be used easily in clinical practice across various institutions in accordance with its own imaging acquisition protocol, are required. Here, we addressed this topic by developing an AI method based on deep learning in giving an early prediction of pCR at various DCE-MRI protocols (axial and sagittal). Sagittal DCE-MRIs refer to 151 patients (42 pCR; 109 non-pCR) from the public I-SPY1 TRIAL database (DB); axial DCE-MRIs are related to 74 patients (22 pCR; 52 non-pCR) from a private DB provided by Istituto Tumori "Giovanni Paolo II" in Bari (Italy). By merging the features extracted from baseline MRIs with some pre-treatment clinical variables, accuracies of 84.4% and 77.3% and AUC values of 80.3% and 78.0% were achieved on the independent tests related to the public DB and the private DB, respectively. Overall, the presented method has shown to be robust regardless of the specific MRI protocol.

A ultrasound-based radiomic approach to predict the nodal status in clinically negative breast cancer patients.

In breast cancer patients, an accurate detection of the axillary lymph node metastasis status is essential for reducing distant metastasis occurrence probabilities. In case of patients resulted negative at both clinical and instrumental examination, the nodal status is commonly evaluated performing the sentinel lymph-node biopsy, that is a time-consuming and expensive intraoperative procedure for the sentinel lymph-node (SLN) status assessment. The aim of this study was to predict the nodal status of 142 clinically negative breast cancer patients by means of both clinical and radiomic features extracted from primary breast tumor ultrasound images acquired at diagnosis. First, different regions of interest (ROIs) were segmented and a radiomic analysis was performed on each ROI. Then, clinical and radiomic features were evaluated separately developing two different machine learning models based on an SVM classifier. Finally, their predictive power was estimated jointly implementing a soft voting technique. The experimental results showed that the model obtained by combining clinical and radiomic features provided the best performances, achieving an AUC value of 88.6%, an accuracy of 82.1%, a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 78.2%. The proposed model represents a promising non-invasive procedure for the SLN status prediction in clinically negative patients.

Advancement study of CancerMath model as prognostic tools for predicting Sentinel lymph node metastasis in clinically negative T1 breast cancer patients.

PURPOSE: Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is an invasive surgical procedure and although it has fewer complications and is less severe than axillary lymph node dissection, it is not a risk-free procedure. Large prospective trials have documented SLNB that it is considered non-therapeutic in early stage breast cancer. METHODS: Web-calculator CancerMath (CM) allows you to estimate the probability of having positive lymph nodes valued on the basis of tumour size, age, histologic type, grading, expression of estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor. We collected 595 patients referred to our Institute resulting clinically negative T1 breast cancer characterized by sentinel lymph node status, prognostic factors defined by CM and also HER2 and Ki-67. We have compared classification performances obtained by online CM application with those obtained after training its algorithm on our database. RESULTS: By training CM model on our dataset and using the same feature, adding HER2 or ki67 we reached a sensitivity median value of 71.4%, 73%, 70.4%, respectively, whereas the online one was equal to 61%, without losing specificity. The introduction of the prognostic factors Her2 and Ki67 could help improving performances on the classification of particularly type of patients. CONCLUSIONS: Although the training of the model on the sample of T1 patients has brought a significant improvement in performance, the general performance does not yet allow a clinical application of the algorithm. However, the experimental results encourage future developments aimed at introducing features of a different nature in the CM model.

Decision support systems for the prediction of lymph node involvement in early breast cancer.

The prediction of lymph node involvement represents an important task which could reduce unnecessary surgery and improve the definition of oncological therapies. An artificial intelligence model able to predict it in pre-operative phase requires the interface among multiple data structures. The trade-off among time consuming, expensive and invasive methodologies is emerging in experimental setups exploited for the analysis of sentinel lymph nodes, where machine learning algorithms represent a key ingredient in recorded data elaboration. The accuracy required for clinical applications is obtainable matching different kind of data. Statistical associations of prognostic factors with symptoms and predictive models implemented also through on-line softwares represent useful diagnostic support tools which translate into patients quality of life improvement and costs reduction.

Predicting of Sentinel Lymph Node Status in Breast Cancer Patients with Clinically Negative Nodes: A Validation Study.

In the absence of lymph node abnormalities detectable on clinical examination or imaging, the guidelines provide for the dissection of the first axillary draining lymph nodes during surgery. It is not always possible to arrive at surgery without diagnostic doubts, and machine learning algorithms can support clinical decisions. The web calculator CancerMath (CM) allows you to estimate the probability of having positive lymph nodes valued on the basis of tumor size, age, histologic type, grading, expression of estrogen receptor, and progesterone receptor. We collected 993 patients referred to our institute with clinically negative results characterized by sentinel lymph node status, prognostic factors defined by CM, and also human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) and Ki-67. Area Under the Curve (AUC) values obtained by the online CM application were comparable with those obtained after training its algorithm on our database. Nevertheless, by training the CM model on our dataset and using the same feature, we reached a sensitivity median value of 72%, whereas the online one was equal to 46%, despite a specificity reduction. We found that the addition of the prognostic factors Her2 and Ki67 could help improve performances on the classification of particular types of patients with the aim of reducing as much as possible the false positives that lead to axillary dissection. As showed by our experimental results, it is not particularly suitable for use as a support instrument for the prediction of metastatic lymph nodes on clinically negative patients.