ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the use of the head and neck cancer risk calculator version 2 in a primary care setting and to evaluate the impact of the risk calculator on the number of referrals stratified by urgency and cancer yield. METHOD: Referrals between April 2019 and August 2019, April 2020 and July 2020 (pre-risk calculator) and August 2020 and July 2021 (post-risk calculator) were analysed. Referral urgency, head and neck cancer risk calculator version 2 score, cancer diagnosis, cancer type and further investigations were recorded. RESULTS: The 2023 patient encounters were analysed; there were 1110 (55 per cent) referrals before head and neck cancer risk calculator version 2 use and 913 (45 per cent) after head and neck cancer risk calculator version 2 use. A higher proportion of older (p < 0.001) and male (p < 0.013) patients were seen post-head and neck cancer risk calculator version 2 use. All cancer cases were seen on the urgent suspicion of cancer pathway post-head and neck cancer risk calculator version 2 use; however, a higher proportion of patients were seen as urgent suspicion of cancer (51.1 vs 83.5 per cent; p < 0.001). Overall, the cancer diagnosis rate increased from 2.7 to 4.1 per cent. CONCLUSION: The head and neck cancer risk calculator version 2 had high sensitivity in cancer diagnosis. More studies are required to optimise the predicted versus actual cancer probability gap.
