Sub-Saharan Africa Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.

BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) we first conducted in 2020 by providing two additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in SSA when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in SSA. METHODS: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al. (2021), this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a one-sided t-test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of ten. We ran the test iteratively with a rolling, six month-window of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region remained well below the outbreak threshold before and after the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. The 7-day persistence coefficient remained somewhat large (1.11) and statistically significant. However, both shift parameters for the weeks around the WHO declaration were negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases had become recently smaller. From November 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to ten was insignificant for the entire sample period. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in SSA, the region never reached outbreak status, and the weekly transmission rate had remained below one case per 100,000 population for well over one year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of a pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended in SSA by the time of the WHO declaration.

Central Asian Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Longitudinal Analyses.

BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in Central Asia we first conducted in 2020 by providing two additional years of data for the region. The historical context provided through additional data can inform regional preparedness and early responses to infectious outbreaks of either the SARS-CoV-2 virus or future pathogens in Central Asia. OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Central Asia when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in Central Asia. METHODS: Traditional surveillance metrics, including counts and rates of COVID-19 transmissions and deaths, and enhanced surveillance indicators, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, were used to measure shifts in the pandemic. To identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a one-sided t-test for whether regional speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of ten. We ran the test iteratively with six months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for seven months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were relatively small in magnitude (0.125 and 0.347, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the two most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, were both significant and negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the two weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to ten became entirely insignificant for the first time in March of 2023. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Central Asia, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for seven months ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 appeared to be endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of pandemic. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics suggest the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration.

South Asia's COVID-19 History and Surveillance: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.

BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in South Asia we first conducted in 2020 with two additional years of data for the region. We assess whether COVID-19 had transitioned from pandemic to endemic at the point the World Health Organization (WHO) ended the publication health emergency status for COVID-19 on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in South Asia around the WHO declaration. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in South Asia. METHODS: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study Welch et al. (2021), this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a one-sided t-test for whether regional weekly speed or transmission rate per 100,000 population was greater than an outbreak threshold of ten. We ran the test iteratively with six months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region remained below the outbreak threshold for over a year by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive (1.168), the 7-day persistence coefficient was negative (-0.185), suggesting limited cluster effects in which cases on a given day predict cases seven days forward. Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the two most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any overall change in the persistence measure around the time of WHO declaration. From December of 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to ten was statistically insignificant across the entire pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in South Asia, the rate of transmission had remained below the outbreak threshold for well over a year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration. Prevention policies should be a focus ahead of future pandemics. On that point, policy should emphasize an epidemiological task force with widespread testing and a contact-tracing system.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19-related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region. METHODS: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023. RESULTS: The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward. CONCLUSIONS: Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we built upon our initial research published in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data for Europe. We assessed whether COVID-19 had shifted from the pandemic to endemic phase in the region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE: We first aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Europe at the time of the WHO declaration. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we provided the historical context for the course of the pandemic in Europe in terms of policy and disease burden at the country and region levels. METHODS: In addition to the updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-tailed t test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were moderate in magnitude (0.404 and 0.547, respectively; P<.001 for both). The shift parameters for the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration were small and insignificant, suggesting little change in the clustering effect of cases on future cases at the time. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became insignificant for the first time in April 2023. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Europe, the rate of transmission remained below the threshold of an outbreak for 4 months ahead of the WHO declaration. The region had previously been in a nearly continuous state of outbreak. The more recent trend suggested that COVID-19 was endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, several countries remained in a state of outbreak, and the conclusion that COVID-19 was no longer a pandemic in Europe at the time is unclear.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) we first conducted in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to determine whether the MENA region meets the criteria for moving from a pandemic to endemic. In doing so, this study considers pandemic trends, dynamic and genomic surveillance methods, and region-specific historical context for the pandemic. These considerations continue through the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. METHODS: In addition to updates to traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed of COVID-19 spread was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data from September 4, 2020, to May 12, 2023. RESULTS: The speed of COVID-19 spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 continuous months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive, the weekly shift parameters suggested the coefficients had most recently turned negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of the speed of spread equal to 10 became entirely insignificant from October 2022 onward. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic had far-reaching effects on MENA, impacting health care systems, economies, and social well-being. Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in the MENA region, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for over 1 year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had transitioned to endemic by the time of the WHO declaration.

Health care and harm reduction provider perspectives on treating older adults who use non-medical opioids: a qualitative study set in Chicago.

BACKGROUND: Opioid overdose death rates are increasing for adults aged 55 and older, with especially high rates in large urban areas. In parallel, admissions to treatment programs for older adults using illicit substances are increasing as well. Despite these trends, there is a lack of information about older adults who use non-medical opioids (NMO) and even less knowledge about their health and service encounters. Conducted in Chicago, Illinois, this qualitative study explores the perspectives of health care and harm reduction service providers who work with older adults using non-medical opioids. METHODS: The study used snowball sampling to locate participants with expertise in working with older adults who use non-medical opioids. In total, we conducted 26 semi-structured interviews from September 2021-August 2022. We explored questions regarding participants' perceptions of older adult opioid use patterns, comorbidities, and involvement in harm reduction outreach and opioid use disorder treatment. RESULTS: Many of the providers we interviewed consider older adults who use NMO as a distinct population that employ unique use behaviors with the intent to protect them from opioid overdose. However, these same unique behaviors may potentiate their risk for overdose in today's climate. Providers report initial encounters that are not care seeking for opioid use and primarily oriented around health conditions. Older adults who use non-medical opioids are seen as complex patients due to the need to diagnostically untangle symptoms of substance use from co-morbidities and conditions associated with aging. Treatment for this population is also viewed as complicated due to the interactions between aging, comorbidities, and substance use. Providers also noted that older adults who use NMO have use behaviors that make them less visible to outreach and treatment service providers, potentially putting them at increased risk for overdose and health conditions associated with opioid use. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study are intended to inform future research on care provision for older adults who use non-medical opioids and may be especially applicable to large urban reas with histories of opioid use dating back to earlier drug epidemics of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

Changes in the Demographic Distribution of Chicago Gun-Homicide Decedents From 2015-2021: Violent Death Surveillance Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Homicide is one of the 5 leading causes of death in the United States for persons aged 1 to 44 years. In 2019, 75% of US homicides were by gun. Chicago has a gun-homicide rate 4 times the national average, and 90% of all homicides are by gun. The public health approach to violence prevention calls for a 4-step process, beginning with defining and monitoring the problem. Insight into the characteristics of gun-homicide decedents can help frame next steps, including identifying risk and protective factors, developing prevention and intervention strategies, and scaling effective responses. Although much is known about gun homicide because it is a long-standing, entrenched public health problem, it is useful to monitor trends to update ongoing prevention efforts. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to use public health surveillance data and methods to describe changes in the race/ethnicity, sex, and age of Chicago gun-homicide decedents from 2015-2021, in the context of year-to-year variation and an overall increase in the city's gun-homicide rate. METHODS: We calculated the distribution of gun-related homicide deaths by 6 race/ethnicity and sex groups (non-Hispanic Black female, non-Hispanic White female, Hispanic female, non-Hispanic Black male, non-Hispanic White male, and Hispanic male), age in years, and age by age group. We used counts, percentages, and rates per 100,000 persons to describe the distribution of deaths among these demographic groups. Comparisons of means and column proportions with tests of significance set at P≤.05 were used to describe changes in the distribution of gun-homicide decedents over time by race-ethnicity-sex and age groups. The comparison of mean age by race-ethnicity-sex group is done using 1-way ANOVA with significance set at P≤.05. RESULTS: The distribution of gun-homicide decedents in Chicago by race/ethnicity and sex groups had been relatively stable from 2015 to 2021 with 2 notable exceptions: a more than doubling of the proportion of gun-homicide decedents who were non-Hispanic Black female (3.6% in 2015 to 8.2% in 2021) and an increase of 3.27 years in the mean age of gun-homicide decedents. The increase in mean age coincided with a decrease in the proportion of non-Hispanic Black male gun-homicide decedents between the ages of 15-19 and 20-24 years and, conversely, an increase in the proportion of non-Hispanic Black male gun-homicide decedents aged 25-34 years. CONCLUSIONS: The annual gun-homicide rate in Chicago had been increasing since 2015 with year-to-year variation. Continued monitoring of trends in the demographic makeup of gun-homicide decedents is necessary to provide the most relevant and timely information to help shape violence prevention efforts. We detected several changes that suggest a need for increased outreach and engagement marketed toward non-Hispanic Black female and non-Hispanic Black male individuals between the ages of 25-34 years.

The interrelationship between food security, climate change, and gender-based violence: A scoping review with system dynamics modeling.

Gender-based violence (GBV) is a global public health and human rights problem that is exacerbated by social and environmental stressors for a multitude of interpersonal, cultural, and economic reasons. Through sudden disruptions in the microclimate of a region, climate shocks often have a negative impact on food security, which correlates with increases in GBV. Associations between the various combinations of GBV, climate change, and food insecurity have been documented in the growing international literature, but questions remain about these associations that require further clarification. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 provides insight through a real time demonstration into these interactions. This review of the global literature examines the interplay between GBV, climate change, and food insecurity-including recent literature regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. This review covers original research studies employing both quantitative and qualitative methodology, those that conducted secondary analyses of existing data sources and perspective pieces derived from observed evidence. An additional analytic layer of system dynamics modeling allowed for the integration of findings from the scoping review and discovery of additional insights into the interplay between disasters, food insecurity, and GBV. Findings from this review suggest that the development and adaptation of evidence-based, focused interventions and policies to reduce the effects of climate shocks and bolster food security may ultimately decrease GBV prevalence and impact.

Prevalence of Alcohol in Unintentional Opioid Overdose Deaths, 2017-2020.

This cross-sectional study investigates the prevalence of alcohol in unintentional opioid overdose deaths in Illinois from 2017 through 2020.

Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamic Panel Data Estimates.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible than prior variants of concern (VOCs). It has caused the largest outbreaks in the pandemic, with increases in mortality and hospitalizations. Early data on the spread of Omicron were captured in countries with relatively low case counts, so it was unclear how the arrival of Omicron would impact the trajectory of the pandemic in countries already experiencing high levels of community transmission of Delta. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to quantify and explain the impact of Omicron on pandemic trajectories and how they differ between countries that were or were not in a Delta outbreak at the time Omicron occurred. METHODS: We used SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and genetic sequence data to classify countries into 2 groups: those that were in a Delta outbreak (defined by at least 10 novel daily transmissions per 100,000 population) when Omicron was first sequenced in the country and those that were not. We used trend analysis, survival curves, and dynamic panel regression models to compare outbreaks in the 2 groups over the period from November 1, 2021, to February 11, 2022. We summarized the outbreaks in terms of their peak rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the duration of time the outbreaks took to reach the peak rate. RESULTS: Countries that were already in an outbreak with predominantly Delta lineages when Omicron arrived took longer to reach their peak rate and saw greater than a twofold increase (2.04) in the average apex of the Omicron outbreak compared to countries that were not yet in an outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that high community transmission of Delta at the time of the first detection of Omicron was not protective, but rather preluded larger outbreaks in those countries. Outbreak status may reflect a generally susceptible population, due to overlapping factors, including climate, policy, and individual behavior. In the absence of strong mitigation measures, arrival of a new, more transmissible variant in these countries is therefore more likely to lead to larger outbreaks. Alternately, countries with enhanced surveillance programs and incentives may be more likely to both exist in an outbreak status and detect more cases during an outbreak, resulting in a spurious relationship. Either way, these data argue against herd immunity mitigating future outbreaks with variants that have undergone significant antigenic shifts.

Disparities by Sex and Race and Ethnicity in Death Rates Due to Opioid Overdose Among Adults 55 Years or Older, 1999 to 2019.

Importance: Rates of opioid overdose deaths are increasing for older adults. Less is known about these deaths compared with those of younger adults. Objective: To analyze rate variation among opioid overdose deaths in older adults by sex and by race and ethnicity over time. Design, Setting, and Participants: This 21-year longitudinal cross-sectional study of adults who died due to opioid overdose at 55 years or older stratified by sex and by race and ethnicity used data from the Multiple Cause of Death database from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research. The data include all opioid overdose deaths among this age group that occurred between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2019 (N = 79 893). Exposures: Sex and racial and ethnic groups. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates of opioid overdose deaths per 100 000 population by sex and by race and ethnicity for persons 55 years or older. Results: During the period 1999 to 2019, 79 893 US residents 55 years or older died due to an opioid overdose. Among these individuals, 79.97% were aged 55 to 64 years, and 58.98% were men. Annual numbers of deaths increased over time from 518 in 1999 to 10 292 in 2019. Annual rates of opioid overdose deaths per 100 000 persons 55 years or older increased over time and ranged from 0.90 in 1999 to 10.70 in 2019. Substantial variation by sex and by race and ethnicity was found. In 2013, rates among non-Hispanic Black men began to diverge from those of other demographic subgroups. By 2019, the opioid overdose fatality rate among non-Hispanic Black men 55 years or older was 40.03 per 100 000 population, 4 times greater than the overall opioid overdose fatality rate of 10.70 per 100 000 for persons of the same age. Conclusions and Relevance: In this longitudinal cross-sectional study of US adults who died due to opioid overdose, the burden of opioid overdose deaths among older adults since 2013 was most concentrated among non-Hispanic Black men. Deaths among non-Hispanic Black men were disproportionality represented in the overall increase in the rate of opioid overdose deaths among older adults. Further research is needed to inform policy and practice.

Has Omicron Changed the Evolution of the Pandemic?

BACKGROUND: Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus carry differential risks to public health. The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, first identified in Botswana on November 11, 2021, has spread globally faster than any previous variant of concern. Understanding the transmissibility of Omicron is vital in the development of public health policy. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to compare SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks driven by Omicron to those driven by prior variants of concern in terms of both the speed and magnitude of an outbreak. METHODS: We analyzed trends in outbreaks by variant of concern with validated surveillance metrics in several southern African countries. The region offers an ideal setting for a natural experiment given that most outbreaks thus far have been driven primarily by a single variant at a time. With a daily longitudinal data set of new infections, total vaccinations, and cumulative infections in countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated how the emergence of Omicron has altered the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. We used the Arellano-Bond method to estimate regression coefficients from a dynamic panel model, in which new infections are a function of infections yesterday and last week. We controlled for vaccinations and prior infections in the population. To test whether Omicron has changed the average trajectory of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, we included an interaction between an indicator variable for the emergence of Omicron and lagged infections. RESULTS: The observed Omicron outbreaks in this study reach the outbreak threshold within 5-10 days after first detection, whereas other variants of concern have taken at least 14 days and up to as many as 35 days. The Omicron outbreaks also reach peak rates of new cases that are roughly 1.5-2 times those of prior variants of concern. Dynamic panel regression estimates confirm Omicron has created a statistically significant shift in viral spread. CONCLUSIONS: The transmissibility of Omicron is markedly higher than prior variants of concern. At the population level, the Omicron outbreaks occurred more quickly and with larger magnitude, despite substantial increases in vaccinations and prior infections, which should have otherwise reduced susceptibility to new infections. Unless public health policies are substantially altered, Omicron outbreaks in other countries are likely to occur with little warning.

Surgical management of female genital mutilation-related morbidity: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Over 200 million women and girls worldwide have suffered from the partial to total removal of external female genitalia for nonmedical purposes, referred to as female genital mutilation (FGM). Survivors of FGM may develop debilitating physical and psychological long-term sequelae. This is the first study to examine the scope of the extant surgical literature on the management of FGM-related morbidity. METHODS: A systematic scoping review of five major research citation databases was conducted. RESULTS: A total of 190 articles from 29 countries met the inclusion criteria. The majority (76%) were primary source articles and from obstetrics and gynecology literature (71%). Reported interventions for FGM-related morbidity were defibulation, cyst excision, clitoral and vulvar reconstruction, urological reconstruction, peripartum procedures, labial adhesion release, and reinfibulation. CONCLUSIONS: Surgery for FGM complications spans multiple specialties, which suggests multidisciplinary collaboration benefit. Plastic and reconstructive surgeons have a clear role in the multidisciplinary care team for these patients. This scoping review identified a paucity of high-quality evidence with respect to functional quality of life outcomes and long-term follow-up.

Household economic impact of road traffic injury versus routine emergencies in a low-income country.

INTRODUCTION: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are increasing and have disproportionate impact on residents of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where 90% of deaths occur. RTIs are a leading cause of death for those aged 15 - 29 years with costs estimated to be up to 3% of GDP. Despite this fact, little primary research has been done on the household economic impact of these events. METHODS: From July to October 2016, 860 consecutive emergency department patients were enrolled and followed up at 6-8 weeks to assess the household financial impacts of these emergency presentations. At follow-up, patients were queried regarding health status, lost wages or schooling, household costs incurred due to their injury or illness, and assets sold. RESULTS: 860 patients were enrolled and 675 patients (78%) completed follow-up surveys. Of those, 660 had a confirmed reason for visit - 303 (45%) road traffic injuries, 357 (53%) other emergency presentations (non-RTI) - encompassing medical presentations and other types of injury, and reason for visit was missing for 15 patients (2%). More than 90% of RTI patients were working or in school prior to their injury. In the economically productive ages (15-44 years) RTI predominated (70%) vs non-RTI (39%). RTI patients were more likely to report residual disability (78.2% RTI vs 68.1% non-RTI, p=0.004). All emergency patients reported difficulty paying for basic needs (food, housing and medical expenses). More than ⅓ of emergency patients reported having to sell assets in order to meet basic needs after their illness or injury. Despite similar hospital costs and fewer lost days of work for both patients and caregivers, the mean financial impact on households of RTI patients was 37% more than for non-RTI patients. These costs equalled between 6-16 weeks of income for patients based on their occupation type and median reported pre-hospitalization income. DISCUSSION: Ugandan emergency care patients suffered significant personal and household economic hardship. In addition to the need for policy and infrastructural changes to improve road safety, these findings highlight the need for basic emergency care systems to secure economic gains in vulnerable households and prevent medical impoverishment of marginal communities.