GIS-based probability assessment of natural hazards in forested landscapes of Central and South-Eastern Europe.

We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards--windthrow, drought, and forest fire--for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.

How to support forest management in a world of change: results of some regional studies.

This article presents results of several studies in Middle, Eastern and Southeastern Europe on needs and application areas, desirable attributes and marketing potentials of forest management support tools. By comparing present and future application areas, a trend from sectoral planning towards landscape planning and integration of multiple stakeholder needs is emerging. In terms of conflicts, where management support tools might provide benefit, no clear tendencies were found, neither on local nor on regional level. In contrast, on national and European levels, support of the implementation of laws, directives, and regulations was found to be of highest importance. Following the user-requirements analysis, electronic tools supporting communication are preferred against paper-based instruments. The users identified most important attributes of optimized management support tools: (i) a broad accessibility for all users at any time should be guaranteed, (ii) the possibility to integrate iteratively experiences from case studies and from regional experts into the knowledge base (learning system) should be given, and (iii) a self-explanatory user interface is demanded, which is also suitable for users rather inexperienced with electronic tools. However, a market potential analysis revealed that the willingness to pay for management tools is very limited, although the participants specified realistic ranges of maximal amounts of money, which would be invested if the products were suitable and payment inevitable. To bridge the discrepancy between unwillingness to pay and the need to use management support tools, optimized financing or cooperation models between practice and science must be found.