Achieving international biodiversity targets: Learning from local norms, values and actions regarding migratory waterfowl management in Kazakhstan.

Migratory species are protected under international legislation; their seasonal movements across international borders may therefore present opportunities for understanding how global conservation policies translate to local-level actions across different socio-ecological contexts. Moreover, local-level management of migratory species can reveal how culture and governance affects progress towards achieving global targets. Here, we investigate potential misalignment in the two-way relationship between global-level conservation policies (i.e. hunting bans and quotas) and local-level norms, values and actions (i.e. legal and illegal hunting) in the context of waterfowl hunting in northern Kazakhstan as a case-study.Northern Kazakhstan is globally important for waterfowl and a key staging area for arctic-breeding species. Hunting is managed through licences, quotas and seasonal bans under UN-AEWA intergovernmental agreements. To better understand the local socio-ecological context of waterfowl hunting, we take a mixed-methods approach using socio-ecological surveys, informal discussions and population modelling of a focal migratory goose species to: (a) investigate motivations for hunting in relation to socio-economic factors; (b) assess knowledge of species' protection status; and (c) predict the population size of Lesser White-fronted Geese (LWfG; Anser erythropus; IUCN Vulnerable) under different scenarios of survival rates and hunting offtake, to understand how goose population demographics interact with the local socio-ecological context.Model results showed no evidence that waterfowl hunting is motivated by financial gain; social and cultural importance were stronger factors. The majority of hunters are knowledgeable about species' protection status; however, 11% did not know LWfG are protected, highlighting a key area for increased stakeholder engagement.Simulations of LWfG population growth over a 20-year period showed LWfG are highly vulnerable to hunting pressure even when survival rates are high. This potential impact of hunting highlights the need for effective regulation along the entire flyway; our survey results show that hunters were generally compliant with newly introduced hunting regulations, showing that effective regulation is possible on a local level. Synthesis and applications. Here, we investigate how global conservation policy and local norms interact to affect the management of a threatened migratory species, which is particularly important for the protection and sustainable management of wildlife that crosses international borders where local contexts may differ. Our study highlights that to be effective and sustainable in the long-term, global conservation policies must fully integrate local socio-economic, cultural, governance and environmental contexts, to ensure interventions are equitable across entire species' ranges. This approach is relevant and adaptable for different contexts involving the conservation of wide-ranging and migratory species, including the 255 migratory waterfowl covered by UN-AEWA (United Nations Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds).

Assessing the socio-economic and land-cover drivers of wildfire activity and its spatiotemporal distribution in south-central Chile.

Sustained human pressures on the environment have significantly increased the frequency, extent, and severity of wildfires, globally. This is particularly the case in Mediterranean regions, in which human-caused wildfires represent up to 90% of all recorded wildfire ignitions. In Chile, it has been estimated that nearly 90% of wildfires are related to human activities, and that their frequency and distribution have steadily increased over the last decade. Despite this, the role of socio-economic factors in driving wildfire activity and its spatiotemporal distribution remains unclear. In this study, we assess the association between socio-economic drivers and spatiotemporal patterns of wildfires in the Mediterranean region of south-central Chile over the period 2010-2018. Our results show that 98.5% of wildfires are related to human activities, either accidentally (58.2%) or intentionally (36.6%). Wildfires occurred primarily during the summer months and their density at the commune-level was associated with increased road access, as well as with the percentage of land covered by agriculture, exotic tree plantations, and native forest. Wildfire activity at the commune-level was also related to socio-economic variables such as population density, proportion of indigenous population, and unemployment rate, although such associations varied considerably depending on the region and on whether the wildfire was started accidentally or intentionally. Our study provides a comprehensive and interdisciplinary assessment of the complex ways in which land-cover and socio-economic factors drive the distribution of wildfire activity in south-central Chile. It represents an important guide for policy-making, as well a baseline for research into strategies aimed at predicting and mitigating wildfire activity at both local and national levels.

A multispecies assessment of wildlife impacts on local community livelihoods.

Conflicts between the interests of agriculture and wildlife conservation are a major threat to biodiversity and human well-being globally. Addressing such conflicts requires a thorough understanding of the impacts associated with living alongside protected wildlife. Despite this, most studies reporting on human-wildlife impacts and the strategies used to mitigate them focus on a single species, thus oversimplifying often complex systems of human-wildlife interactions. We sought to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of impacts by multiple co-occurring species on agricultural livelihoods in the eastern Okavango Delta Panhandle in northern Botswana through the use of a database of 3264 wildlife-incident reports recorded from 2009 to 2015 by the Department of Wildlife and National Parks. Eight species (African elephants [Loxodonta africana], hippopotamuses [Hippopotamus amphibious], lions [Panthera leo], cheetah [Acinonyx jubatus], African wild dogs [Lycaon pictus], hyenas [Crocuta crocuta], leopards [Panthera pardus], and crocodiles [Crocodylus niloticus]) appeared on incident reports, of which 56.5% were attributed to elephants. Most species were associated with only 1 type of damage (i.e., either crop damage or livestock loss). Carnivores were primarily implicated in incident reports related to livestock loss, particularly toward the end of the dry season (May-October). In contrast, herbivores were associated with crop-loss incidents during the wet season (November-April). Our results illustrate how local communities can face distinct livelihood challenges from different species at different times of the year. Such a multispecies assessment has important implications for the design of conservation interventions aimed at addressing the costs of living with wildlife and thereby mitigation of the underlying conservation conflict. Our spatiotemporal, multispecies approach is widely applicable to other regions where sustainable and long-term solutions to conservation conflicts are needed for local communities and biodiversity.

Article Impact Statement: Impacts of protected wildlife on local community livelihoods can vary and overlap across species, spatial scales, and time of the year. Una Evaluación Multiespecie de los Impactos de la Fauna sobre el Sustento de la Comunidad Local Resumen Los conflictos entre los intereses de la agricultura y la conservación de fauna son una gran amenaza para la biodiversidad y el bienestar humano en todo el mundo. Para tratar estos conflictos se requiere un entendimiento exhaustivo de los impactos asociados con la convivencia con fauna protegida. A pesar de esto, la mayoría de los estudios que reportan sobre los impactos humano-fauna y las estrategias que se usan para mitigarlos se enfocan en una sola especie, lo que simplifica demasiado los complejos sistemas de interacciones humano-fauna. Buscamos caracterizar los patrones espaciotemporales de los impactos por múltiples especies coocurrentes sobre el sustento agrícola en la franja oriental del Delta del Okavango al norte de Botswana mediante el uso de una base de datos de 3,264 reportes de incidentes con fauna registrados entre 2009 y 2015 por el Departamento de Vida Silvestre y Parques Nacionales. Ocho especies (elefante africano [Loxodonta africana], hipopótamo [Hippopotamus amphibious], león [Panthera leo], chita [Acinonyx jubatus], licaón [Lycaon pictus], hiena [Crocuta crocuta], leopardo [Panthera pardus] y cocodrilo [Crocodylus niloticus]) aparecieron en los reportes de incidentes, de los cuales el 56.5% estaba atribuido a los elefantes. La mayoría de las especies estuvo asociada sólo con un tipo de daño (es decir, daño a cultivos o pérdida de ganado). Los carnívoros fueron los principales implicados en los reportes de incidentes relacionados con la pérdida de ganado, particularmente hacia el final de la temporada seca (mayo-octubre). Al contrario, los herbívoros estuvieron asociados con los incidentes de pérdida de cultivos durante la temporada de lluvias (noviembre-abril). Nuestros resultados ejemplifican cómo las comunidades locales pueden enfrentar diferentes dificultades en su sustento por parte de diferentes especies durante diferentes periodos en el año. Tal evaluación multiespecie tiene consecuencias importantes para el diseño de las intervenciones de conservación enfocadas en la resolución de los efectos de la convivencia con la fauna y por lo tanto la mitigación del conflicto de conservación subyacente. Nuestro enfoque multiespecie espaciotemporal puede aplicarse ampliamente a otras regiones en donde las comunidades y la biodiversidad local necesitan soluciones sustentables y a largo plazo para los conflictos de conservación.

Time series analysis reveals synchrony and asynchrony between conflict management effort and increasing large grazing bird populations in northern Europe.

The management of conflicts between wildlife conservation and agricultural practices often involves the implementation of strategies aimed at reducing the cost of wildlife impacts on crops. Vital to the success of these strategies is the perception that changes in management efforts are synchronized relative to changes in impact levels, yet this expectation is never evaluated. We assess the level of synchrony between time series of population counts and management effort in the context of conflicts between agriculture and five populations of large grazing birds in northern Europe. We reveal inconsistent patterns of synchrony and asynchrony between changes in population counts and impact management effort relating to population harvesting, monetary payments, or scaring practices. This variation is likely due to differing management aims, the existence of lags between management decisions and population monitoring, and the inconsistent use of predictive models across case studies. Overall, our findings highlight the need for more adaptive and timely responses of management to changes in target species numbers so as not to unexpectedly increase social conflicts and jeopardize the status of wildlife populations.

Determining baselines for human-elephant conflict: A matter of time.

Elephant crop raiding is one of the most relevant forms of human-elephant conflict (HEC) in Africa. Northern Botswana holds the largest population of African elephants in the world, and in the eastern Okavango Panhandle, 16,000 people share and compete for resources with more than 11,000 elephants. Hence, it is not surprising this area represents a HEC 'hotspot' in the region. Crop-raiding impacts lead to negative perceptions of elephants by local communities, which can strongly undermine conservation efforts. Therefore, assessing trends in conflict levels is essential to developing successful management strategies. In this context, we investigated the trend in the number of reported raiding incidents as one of the indicators of the level of HEC, and assessed its relationship to trends in human and elephant population size, as well as land-use in the study area. For each of these factors, we considered data spanning historical (since the 1970s) and contemporary (2008-2015) time frames, with the aim of comparing subsequent inferences on the drivers of crop raiding and predictions for the future. We find that the level of reported crop raiding by elephants in the eastern Panhandle appears to have decreased since 2008, which seems to be related to the reduction in agricultural land allocated to people in recent years, more than with human and elephant population size. We show that inferences regarding the drivers of HEC and predictions for the future are dependent on the time span of the data used. Although our study represents a first step in developing a HEC baseline in the eastern Panhandle, it highlights the need for additional multi-scale analyses that consider progress in conservation conflict to better understand and predict drivers of HEC in the region.