Genetic influences on disease course and severity, 30 years after a clinically isolated syndrome.

Multiple sclerosis risk has a well-established polygenic component, yet the genetic contribution to disease course and severity remains unclear and difficult to examine. Accurately measuring disease progression requires long-term study of clinical and radiological outcomes with sufficient follow-up duration to confidently confirm disability accrual and multiple sclerosis phenotypes. In this retrospective study, we explore genetic influences on long-term disease course and severity; in a unique cohort of clinically isolated syndrome patients with homogenous 30-year disease duration, deep clinical phenotyping and advanced MRI metrics. Sixty-one clinically isolated syndrome patients [41 female (67%): 20 male (33%)] underwent clinical and MRI assessment at baseline, 1-, 5-, 10-, 14-, 20- and 30-year follow-up (mean age ± standard deviation: 60.9 ± 6.5 years). After 30 years, 29 patients developed relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, 15 developed secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and 17 still had a clinically isolated syndrome. Twenty-seven genes were investigated for associations with clinical outcomes [including disease course and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)] and brain MRI (including white matter lesions, cortical lesions, and brain tissue volumes) at the 30-year follow-up. Genetic associations with changes in EDSS, relapses, white matter lesions and brain atrophy (third ventricular and medullary measurements) over 30 years were assessed using mixed-effects models. HLA-DRB1*1501-positive (n = 26) patients showed faster white matter lesion accrual [+1.96 lesions/year (0.64-3.29), P = 3.8 × 10-3], greater 30-year white matter lesion volumes [+11.60 ml, (5.49-18.29), P = 1.27 × 10-3] and higher annualized relapse rates [+0.06 relapses/year (0.005-0.11), P = 0.031] compared with HLA-DRB1*1501-negative patients (n = 35). PVRL2-positive patients (n = 41) had more cortical lesions (+0.83 [0.08-1.66], P = 0.042), faster EDSS worsening [+0.06 points/year (0.02-0.11), P = 0.010], greater 30-year EDSS [+1.72 (0.49-2.93), P = 0.013; multiple sclerosis cases: +2.60 (1.30-3.87), P = 2.02 × 10-3], and greater risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [odds ratio (OR) = 12.25 (1.15-23.10), P = 0.031] than PVRL2-negative patients (n = 18). In contrast, IRX1-positive (n = 30) patients had preserved 30-year grey matter fraction [+0.76% (0.28-1.29), P = 8.4 × 10-3], lower risk of cortical lesions [OR = 0.22 (0.05-0.99), P = 0.049] and lower 30-year EDSS [-1.35 (-0.87,-3.44), P = 0.026; multiple sclerosis cases: -2.12 (-0.87, -3.44), P = 5.02 × 10-3] than IRX1-negative patients (n = 30). In multiple sclerosis cases, IRX1-positive patients also had slower EDSS worsening [-0.07 points/year (-0.01,-0.13), P = 0.015] and lower risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [OR = 0.19 (0.04-0.92), P = 0.042]. These exploratory findings support diverse genetic influences on pathological mechanisms associated with multiple sclerosis disease course. HLA-DRB1*1501 influenced white matter inflammation and relapses, while IRX1 (protective) and PVRL2 (adverse) were associated with grey matter pathology (cortical lesions and atrophy), long-term disability worsening and the risk of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

Differentiating Multiple Sclerosis From AQP4-Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder and MOG-Antibody Disease With Imaging.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), aquaporin-4 antibody-positive neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (AQP4-NMOSD), and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD) may have overlapping clinical features. There is an unmet need for imaging markers that differentiate between them when serologic testing is unavailable or ambiguous. We assessed whether imaging characteristics typical of MS discriminate RRMS from AQP4-NMOSD and MOGAD, alone and in combination. METHODS: Adult, nonacute patients with RRMS, APQ4-NMOSD, and MOGAD and healthy controls were prospectively recruited at the National Hospital for Neurology and Neurosurgery (London, United Kingdom) and the Walton Centre (Liverpool, United Kingdom) between 2014 and 2019. They underwent conventional and advanced brain, cord, and optic nerve MRI and optical coherence tomography (OCT). RESULTS: A total of 91 consecutive patients (31 RRMS, 30 APQ4-NMOSD, and 30 MOGAD) and 34 healthy controls were recruited. The most accurate measures differentiating RRMS from AQP4-NMOSD were the proportion of lesions with the central vein sign (CVS) (84% vs 33%, accuracy/specificity/sensitivity: 91/88/93%, p < 0.001), followed by cortical lesions (median: 2 [range: 1-14] vs 1 [0-1], accuracy/specificity/sensitivity: 84/90/77%, p = 0.002) and white matter lesions (mean: 39.07 [±25.8] vs 9.5 [±14], accuracy/specificity/sensitivity: 78/84/73%, p = 0.001). The combination of higher proportion of CVS, cortical lesions, and optic nerve magnetization transfer ratio reached the highest accuracy in distinguishing RRMS from AQP4-NMOSD (accuracy/specificity/sensitivity: 95/92/97%, p < 0.001). The most accurate measures favoring RRMS over MOGAD were white matter lesions (39.07 [±25.8] vs 1 [±2.3], accuracy/specificity/sensitivity: 94/94/93%, p = 0.006), followed by cortical lesions (2 [1-14] vs 1 [0-1], accuracy/specificity/sensitivity: 84/97/71%, p = 0.004), and retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (RNFL) (mean: 87.54 [±13.83] vs 75.54 [±20.33], accuracy/specificity/sensitivity: 80/79/81%, p = 0.009). Higher cortical lesion number combined with higher RNFL thickness best differentiated RRMS from MOGAD (accuracy/specificity/sensitivity: 84/92/77%, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Cortical lesions, CVS, and optic nerve markers achieve a high accuracy in distinguishing RRMS from APQ4-NMOSD and MOGAD. This information may be useful in clinical practice, especially outside the acute phase and when serologic testing is ambiguous or not promptly available. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that selected conventional and advanced brain, cord, and optic nerve MRI and OCT markers distinguish adult patients with RRMS from AQP4-NMOSD and MOGAD.

Qualitative and Quantitative Comparison of Hippocampal Volumetric Software Applications: Do All Roads Lead to Rome?

Brain volumetric software is increasingly suggested for clinical routine. The present study quantifies the agreement across different software applications. Ten cases with and ten gender- and age-adjusted healthy controls without hippocampal atrophy (median age: 70; 25-75% range: 64-77 years and 74; 66-78 years) were retrospectively selected from a previously published cohort of Alzheimer's dementia patients and normal ageing controls. Hippocampal volumes were computed based on 3 Tesla T1-MPRAGE-sequences with FreeSurfer (FS), Statistical-Parametric-Mapping (SPM; Neuromorphometrics and Hammers atlases), Geodesic-Information-Flows (GIF), Similarity-and-Truth-Estimation-for-Propagated-Segmentations (STEPS), and Quantib™. MTA (medial temporal lobe atrophy) scores were manually rated. Volumetric measures of each individual were compared against the mean of all applications with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and Bland-Altman plots. Comparing against the mean of all methods, moderate to low agreement was present considering categorization of hippocampal volumes into quartiles. ICCs ranged noticeably between applications (left hippocampus (LH): from 0.42 (STEPS) to 0.88 (FS); right hippocampus (RH): from 0.36 (Quantib™) to 0.86 (FS). Mean differences between individual methods and the mean of all methods [mm3] were considerable (LH: FS -209, SPM-Neuromorphometrics -820; SPM-Hammers -1474; Quantib™ -680; GIF 891; STEPS 2218; RH: FS -232, SPM-Neuromorphometrics -745; SPM-Hammers -1547; Quantib™ -723; GIF 982; STEPS 2188). In this clinically relevant sample size with large spread in data ranging from normal aging to severe atrophy, hippocampal volumes derived by well-accepted applications were quantitatively different. Thus, interchangeable use is not recommended.

Efficacy of three neuroprotective drugs in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS-SMART): a phase 2b, multiarm, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Neurodegeneration is the pathological substrate that causes major disability in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. A synthesis of preclinical and clinical research identified three neuroprotective drugs acting on different axonal pathobiologies. We aimed to test the efficacy of these drugs in an efficient manner with respect to time, cost, and patient resource. METHODS: We did a phase 2b, multiarm, parallel group, double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial at 13 clinical neuroscience centres in the UK. We recruited patients (aged 25-65 years) with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis who were not on disease-modifying treatment and who had an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of 4·0-6·5. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) at baseline, by a research nurse using a centralised web-based service, to receive twice-daily oral treatment of either amiloride 5 mg, fluoxetine 20 mg, riluzole 50 mg, or placebo for 96 weeks. The randomisation procedure included minimisation based on sex, age, EDSS score at randomisation, and trial site. Capsules were identical in appearance to achieve masking. Patients, investigators, and MRI readers were unaware of treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was volumetric MRI percentage brain volume change (PBVC) from baseline to 96 weeks, analysed using multiple regression, adjusting for baseline normalised brain volume and minimisation criteria. The primary analysis was a complete-case analysis based on the intention-to-treat population (all patients with data at week 96). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01910259. FINDINGS: Between Jan 29, 2015, and June 22, 2016, 445 patients were randomly allocated amiloride (n=111), fluoxetine (n=111), riluzole (n=111), or placebo (n=112). The primary analysis included 393 patients who were allocated amiloride (n=99), fluoxetine (n=96), riluzole (n=99), and placebo (n=99). No difference was noted between any active treatment and placebo in PBVC (amiloride vs placebo, 0·0% [95% CI -0·4 to 0·5; p=0·99]; fluoxetine vs placebo -0·1% [-0·5 to 0·3; p=0·86]; riluzole vs placebo -0·1% [-0·6 to 0·3; p=0·77]). No emergent safety issues were reported. The incidence of serious adverse events was low and similar across study groups (ten [9%] patients in the amiloride group, seven [6%] in the fluoxetine group, 12 [11%] in the riluzole group, and 13 [12%] in the placebo group). The most common serious adverse events were infections and infestations. Three patients died during the study, from causes judged unrelated to active treatment; one patient assigned amiloride died from metastatic lung cancer, one patient assigned riluzole died from ischaemic heart disease and coronary artery thrombosis, and one patient assigned fluoxetine had a sudden death (primary cause) with multiple sclerosis and obesity listed as secondary causes. INTERPRETATION: The absence of evidence for neuroprotection in this adequately powered trial indicates that exclusively targeting these aspects of axonal pathobiology in patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis is insufficient to mitigate neuroaxonal loss. These findings argue for investigation of different mechanistic targets and future consideration of combination treatment trials. This trial provides a template for future simultaneous testing of multiple disease-modifying medicines in neurological medicine. FUNDING: Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation (EME) Programme, an MRC and NIHR partnership, UK Multiple Sclerosis Society, and US National Multiple Sclerosis Society.

Periventricular magnetisation transfer ratio abnormalities in multiple sclerosis improve after alemtuzumab.

BACKGROUND: In multiple sclerosis (MS), disease effects on magnetisation transfer ratio (MTR) increase towards the ventricles. This periventricular gradient is evident shortly after first symptoms and is independent of white matter lesions. OBJECTIVE: To explore if alemtuzumab, a peripherally acting disease-modifying treatment, modifies the gradient's evolution, and whether baseline gradients predict on-treatment relapses. METHODS: Thirty-four people with relapsing-remitting MS underwent annual magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanning (19 receiving alemtuzumab (four scans each), 15 untreated (three scans each)). The normal-appearing white matter was segmented into concentric bands. Gradients were measured over the three bands nearest the ventricles. Mixed-effects models adjusted for age, gender, relapse rate, lesion number and brain parenchymal fraction compared the groups' baseline gradients and evolution. RESULTS: Untreated, the mean MTR gradient increased (+0.030 pu/band/year) but decreased following alemtuzumab (-0.045 pu/band/year, p = 0.037). Within the alemtuzumab group, there were no significant differences in baseline lesion number (p = 0.568) nor brain parenchymal fraction (p = 0.187) between those who relapsed within 4 years (n = 4) and those who did not (n = 15). However, the baseline gradient was significantly different (p = 0.020). CONCLUSION: Untreated, abnormal periventricular gradients worsen with time, but appear reversible with peripheral immunotherapy. Baseline gradients - but not lesion loads or brain volumes - may predict on-treatment relapses. Larger confirmatory studies are required.

Magnetisation transfer ratio abnormalities in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: In relapse-onset multiple sclerosis (MS), tissue abnormality - as assessed with magnetisation transfer ratio (MTR) imaging - is greater in the outer cortical and inner periventricular layers. The cause of this remains unknown but meningeal inflammation has been implicated, particularly lymphoid follicles, which are seen in secondary progressive (SP) but not primary progressive (PP) MS. Cortical and periventricular MTR gradients might, therefore, differ in PPMS and SPMS if these follicles are responsible. OBJECTIVE: We assessed cortical and periventricular MTR gradients in PPMS, and compared gradients between people with PPMS and SPMS. METHODS: Using an optimised processing pipeline, periventricular normal-appearing white matter and cortical grey-matter MTR gradients were compared between 51 healthy controls and 63 people with progressive MS (28 PPMS, 35 SPMS). RESULTS: The periventricular gradient was significantly shallower in healthy controls (0.122 percentage units (pu)/band) compared to PPMS (0.952 pu/band, p < 0.0001) and SPMS (1.360 pu/band, p < 0.0001). The cortical gradient was also significantly shallower in healthy controls (-2.860 pu/band) compared to PPMS (-3.214 pu/band, p = 0.038) and SPMS (-3.328 pu/band, p = 0.016). CONCLUSION: Abnormal periventricular and cortical MTR gradients occur in both PPMS and SPMS, suggesting comparable underlying pathological processes.

Multiple Sclerosis-Secondary Progressive Multi-Arm Randomisation Trial (MS-SMART): a multiarm phase IIb randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial comparing the efficacy of three neuroprotective drugs in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: The major unmet need in multiple sclerosis (MS) is for neuroprotective therapies that can slow (or ideally stop) the rate of disease progression. The UK MS Society Clinical Trials Network (CTN) was initiated in 2007 with the purpose of developing a national, efficient, multiarm trial of repurposed drugs. Key underpinning work was commissioned by the CTN to inform the design, outcome selection and drug choice including animal models and a systematic review. This identified seven leading oral agents for repurposing as neuroprotective therapies in secondary progressive MS (SPMS). The purpose of the Multiple Sclerosis-Secondary Progressive Multi-Arm Randomisation Trial (MS-SMART) will be to evaluate the neuroprotective efficacy of three of these drugs, selected with distinct mechanistic actions and previous evidence of likely efficacy, against a common placebo arm. The interventions chosen were: amiloride (acid-sensing ion channel antagonist); fluoxetine (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor) and riluzole (glutamate antagonist). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Patients with progressing SPMS will be randomised 1:1:1:1 to amiloride, fluoxetine, riluzole or matched placebo and followed for 96 weeks. The primary outcome will be the percentage brain volume change (PBVC) between baseline and 96 weeks, derived from structural MR brain imaging data using the Structural Image Evaluation, using Normalisation, of Atrophy method. With a sample size of 90 per arm, this will give 90% power to detect a 40% reduction in PBVC in any active arm compared with placebo and 80% power to detect a 35% reduction (analysing by analysis of covariance and with adjustment for multiple comparisons of three 1.67% two-sided tests), giving a 5% overall two-sided significance level. MS-SMART is not powered to detect differences between the three active treatment arms. Allowing for a 20% dropout rate, 110 patients per arm will be randomised. The study will take place at Neuroscience centres in England and Scotland. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: MS-SMART was approved by the Scotland A Research Ethics Committee on 13 January 2013 (REC reference: 13/SS/0007). Results of the study will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: NCT01910259; 2012-005394-31; ISRCTN28440672.

An abnormal periventricular magnetization transfer ratio gradient occurs early in multiple sclerosis.

In established multiple sclerosis, tissue abnormality-as assessed using magnetization transfer ratio-increases close to the lateral ventricles. We aimed to determine whether or not (i) these changes are present from the earliest clinical stages of multiple sclerosis; (ii) they occur independent of white matter lesions; and (iii) they are associated with subsequent conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis and disability. Seventy-one subjects had MRI scanning a median of 4.6 months after a clinically isolated optic neuritis (49 females, mean age 33.5 years) and were followed up clinically 2 and 5 years later. Thirty-seven healthy controls (25 females, mean age 34.4 years) were also scanned. In normal-appearing white matter, magnetization transfer ratio gradients were measured 1-5 mm and 6-10 mm from the lateral ventricles. In control subjects, magnetization transfer ratio was highest adjacent to the ventricles and decreased with distance from them; in optic neuritis, normal-appearing white matter magnetization transfer ratio was lowest adjacent to the ventricles, increased over the first 5 mm, and then paralleled control values. The magnetization transfer ratio gradient over 1-5 mm differed significantly between the optic neuritis and control groups [+0.059 percentage units/mm (pu/mm) versus -0.033 pu/mm, P = 0.010], and was significantly steeper in those developing clinically definite multiple sclerosis within 2 years compared to those who did not (0.132 pu/mm versus 0.016 pu/mm, P = 0.020). In multivariate binary logistic regression the magnetization transfer ratio gradient was independently associated with the development of clinically definite multiple sclerosis within 2 years (magnetization transfer ratio gradient odds ratio 61.708, P = 0.023; presence of T2 lesions odds ratio 8.500, P = 0.071). At 5 years, lesional measures overtook magnetization transfer ratio gradients as significant predictors of conversion to multiple sclerosis. The magnetization transfer ratio gradient was not significantly affected by the presence of brain lesions [T2 lesions (P = 0.918), periventricular T2 lesions (P = 0.580) or gadolinium-enhancing T1 lesions (P = 0.724)]. The magnetization transfer ratio gradient also correlated with Expanded Disability Status Scale score 5 years later (Spearman r = 0.313, P = 0.027). An abnormal periventricular magnetization transfer ratio gradient occurs early in multiple sclerosis, is clinically relevant, and may arise from one or more mechanisms that are at least partly independent of lesion formation.