The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018.

Global aviation operations contribute to anthropogenic climate change via a complex set of processes that lead to a net surface warming. Of importance are aviation emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapor, soot and sulfate aerosols, and increased cloudiness due to contrail formation. Aviation grew strongly over the past decades (1960-2018) in terms of activity, with revenue passenger kilometers increasing from 109 to 8269 billion km yr-1, and in terms of climate change impacts, with CO2 emissions increasing by a factor of 6.8 to 1034 Tg CO2 yr-1. Over the period 2013-2018, the growth rates in both terms show a marked increase. Here, we present a new comprehensive and quantitative approach for evaluating aviation climate forcing terms. Both radiative forcing (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) terms and their sums are calculated for the years 2000-2018. Contrail cirrus, consisting of linear contrails and the cirrus cloudiness arising from them, yields the largest positive net (warming) ERF term followed by CO2 and NOx emissions. The formation and emission of sulfate aerosol yields a negative (cooling) term. The mean contrail cirrus ERF/RF ratio of 0.42 indicates that contrail cirrus is less effective in surface warming than other terms. For 2018 the net aviation ERF is +100.9 milliwatts (mW) m-2 (5-95% likelihood range of (55, 145)) with major contributions from contrail cirrus (57.4 mW m-2), CO2 (34.3 mW m-2), and NOx (17.5 mW m-2). Non-CO2 terms sum to yield a net positive (warming) ERF that accounts for more than half (66%) of the aviation net ERF in 2018. Using normalization to aviation fuel use, the contribution of global aviation in 2011 was calculated to be 3.5 (4.0, 3.4) % of the net anthropogenic ERF of 2290 (1130, 3330) mW m-2. Uncertainty distributions (5%, 95%) show that non-CO2 forcing terms contribute about 8 times more than CO2 to the uncertainty in the aviation net ERF in 2018. The best estimates of the ERFs from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions for soot and sulfate remain undetermined. CO2-warming-equivalent emissions based on global warming potentials (GWP* method) indicate that aviation emissions are currently warming the climate at approximately three times the rate of that associated with aviation CO2 emissions alone. CO2 and NOx aviation emissions and cloud effects remain a continued focus of anthropogenic climate change research and policy discussions.

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Aviation.

Aviation alters the composition of the atmosphere globally and can thus drive climate change and ozone depletion. The last major international assessment of these impacts was made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1999. Here, a comprehensive updated assessment of aviation is provided. Scientific advances since the 1999 assessment have reduced key uncertainties, sharpening the quantitative evaluation, yet the basic conclusions remain the same. The climate impact of aviation is driven by long-term impacts from CO2 emissions and shorter-term impacts from non-CO2 emissions and effects, which include the emissions of water vapour, particles and nitrogen oxides (NO x ). The present-day radiative forcing from aviation (2005) is estimated to be 55 mW m-2 (excluding cirrus cloud enhancement), which represents some 3.5% (range 1.3-10%, 90% likelihood range) of current anthropogenic forcing, or 78 mW m-2 including cirrus cloud enhancement, representing 4.9% of current forcing (range 2-14%, 90% likelihood range). According to two SRES-compatible scenarios, future forcings may increase by factors of 3-4 over 2000 levels, in 2050. The effects of aviation emissions of CO2 on global mean surface temperature last for many hundreds of years (in common with other sources), whilst its non-CO2 effects on temperature last for decades. Much progress has been made in the last ten years on characterizing emissions, although major uncertainties remain over the nature of particles. Emissions of NO x result in production of ozone, a climate warming gas, and the reduction of ambient methane (a cooling effect) although the overall balance is warming, based upon current understanding. These NO x emissions from current subsonic aviation do not appear to deplete stratospheric ozone. Despite the progress made on modelling aviation's impacts on tropospheric chemistry, there remains a significant spread in model results. The knowledge of aviation's impacts on cloudiness has also improved: a limited number of studies have demonstrated an increase in cirrus cloud attributable to aviation although the magnitude varies: however, these trend analyses may be impacted by satellite artefacts. The effect of aviation particles on clouds (with and without contrails) may give rise to either a positive forcing or a negative forcing: the modelling and the underlying processes are highly uncertain, although the overall effect of contrails and enhanced cloudiness is considered to be a positive forcing and could be substantial, compared with other effects. The debate over quantification of aviation impacts has also progressed towards studying potential mitigation and the technological and atmospheric tradeoffs. Current studies are still relatively immature and more work is required to determine optimal technological development paths, which is an aspect that atmospheric science has much to contribute. In terms of alternative fuels, liquid hydrogen represents a possibility and may reduce some of aviation's impacts on climate if the fuel is produced in a carbon-neutral way: such fuel is unlikely to be utilized until a 'hydrogen economy' develops. The introduction of biofuels as a means of reducing CO2 impacts represents a future possibility. However, even over and above land-use concerns and greenhouse gas budget issues, aviation fuels require strict adherence to safety standards and thus require extra processing compared with biofuels destined for other sectors, where the uptake of such fuel may be more beneficial in the first instance.

Concepts and approaches to in situ luminescence dating of Martian sediments.

In this paper we present the concept of a robotic instrument for in situ luminescence dating of near-surface sediments on Mars. The scientific objectives and advantages to be gained from the development of such an instrument are described, and the challenges presented by the Mars surface environment to the design and operation of the instrument are outlined.

Increased social fear and decreased fear of objects in monkeys with neonatal amygdala lesions.

The amygdala has been implicated in the mediation of emotional and species-specific social behavior (Kling et al., 1970; Kling and Brothers, 1992; Kluver and Bucy, 1939; Rosvold et al., 1954). Humans with bilateral amygdala damage are impaired in judging negative emotion in facial expressions and making accurate judgements of trustworthiness (Adolphs et al., 1998, 1994). Amygdala dysfunction has also been implicated in human disorders ranging from social anxiety (Birbaumer et al., 1998) to depression (Drevets, 2000) to autism (Bachevalier, 1994; Baron-Cohen et al., 2000; Bauman and Kemper, 1993). We produced selective amygdala lesions in 2-week-old macaque monkeys who were returned to their mothers for rearing. At 6-8 months of age, the lesioned animals demonstrated less fear of novel objects such as rubber snakes than age-matched controls. However, they displayed substantially more fear behavior than controls during dyadic social interactions. These results suggest that neonatal amygdala lesions dissociate a system that mediates social fear from one that mediates fear of inanimate objects. Furthermore, much of the age-appropriate repertoire of social behavior was present in amygdala-lesioned infants indicating that these lesions do not produce autistic-like behavior in monkeys. Finally, amygdala lesions early in development have different effects on social behavior than lesions produced in adulthood.

Regional dendritic and spine variation in human cerebral cortex: a quantitative golgi study.

The present study explored differences in dendritic/spine extent across several human cortical regions. Specifically, the basilar dendrites/spines of supragranular pyramidal cells were examined in eight Brodmann's areas (BA) arranged according to Benson's (1993, Behav Neurol 6:75-81) functional hierarchy: primary cortex (somatosensory, BA3-1-2; motor, BA4), unimodal cortex (Wernicke's area, BA22; Broca's area, BA44), heteromodal cortex (supple- mentary motor area, BA6beta; angular gyrus, BA39) and supramodal cortex (superior frontopolar zone, BA10; inferior frontopolar zone, BA11). To capture more general aspects of regional variability, primary and unimodal areas were designated as low integrative regions; heteromodal and supramodal areas were designated as high integrative regions. Tissue was obtained from the left hemisphere of 10 neurologically normal individuals (M(age) = 30 +/- 17 years; five males, five females) and stained with a modified rapid Golgi technique. Ten neurons were sampled from each cortical region (n = 800) and evaluated according to total dendritic length, mean segment length, dendritic segment count, dendritic spine number and dendritic spine density. Despite considerable inter-individual variation, there were significant differences across the eight Brodmann's areas and between the high and low integrative regions for all dendritic and spine measures. Dendritic systems in primary and unimodal regions were consistently less complex than in heteromodal and supramodal areas. The range within these rankings was substantial, with total dendritic length in BA10 being 31% greater than that in BA3-1-2, and dendritic spine number being 69% greater. These findings demonstrate that cortical regions involved in the early stages of processing (e.g. primary sensory areas) generally exhibit less complex dendritic/spine systems than those regions involved in the later stages of information processing (e.g. prefrontal cortex). This dendritic progression appears to reflect significant differences in the nature of cortical processing, with spine-dense neurons at hierarchically higher association levels integrating a broader range of synaptic input than those at lower cortical levels.

Effect of antibiotic therapy and etiologic microorganism on the risk of bacterial meningitis in children with occult bacteremia.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the effect of antibiotic therapy on the probability of subsequent bacterial meningitis in children with fever without source treated as outpatients. DESIGN: Bayesian meta-analyses. REPORTS INCLUDED: All reports of the organism-specific prevalence of occult bacteremia in children with fever without source treated as outpatients, and the organism-specific prevalence of subsequent meningitis in children with occult bacteremia initially treated as outpatients stratified by type of antibiotic therapy. RESULTS: The mean probabilities of subsequent meningitis in children with occult bacteremia were 9.8%, 8.2%, and 0.3% in the no antibiotic, oral antibiotic, and parenteral antibiotic therapy groups, respectively. All cases of bacterial meningitis in children with occult bacteremia treated with oral antibiotics were due to Haemophilus influenzae. There were no cases of culture-positive bacterial meningitis in 139 bacteremic children treated with ceftriaxone (mean probability, 0.3%; 95% confidence interval, 0.0% to 1.5%). The mean probabilities of bacterial meningitis in a child with fever without source treated as an outpatient without antibiotics were: Streptococcus pneumoniae, 0.21%; and H influenzae, 0.06%. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic therapy is effective in preventing meningitis in children at risk of occult bacteremia.

Outcome of pregnancies experienced during residency.

To investigate potential adverse effects of residency training on pregnancy outcome, a cohort study was conducted among 45 university-affiliated residency programs. Outcomes of the first pregnancy experienced during residency were compared between 92 female residents and 144 spouses of male residents. Despite long hours, sleep deprivation, and an increase in perceived stress, the female residents were as likely to give birth to a live, full-term newborn as the spouses of male residents. For white cohort members, an increased risk of premature labor without delivery was identified (RR = 12.3, 95% confidence interval 2.4-61.6). No significant differences were found in prematurity, spontaneous and therapeutic abortions, or presence of congenital abnormalities in the infants. Method of delivery and use of anesthetics and of other medications were similar in both groups. Pregnancy outcomes between the two groups were similar; however, the increased risk for premature labor among female residents is a cause for concern and should be further investigated.

Implications of pregnancy for residents and their training programs.

This study investigated the implications of pregnancy on residents and their training programs and how programs have planned for pregnancy disruptions compared to other employers. We received questionnaires from 236 male and female residents and their families who had experienced at least one pregnancy during their training. Results for female residents were compared with working spouses of male residents. Approximately half of the female residents reported that their programs had formal leave policies compared to 70% of the working spouses. The average amount of leave taken by residents was considerably less than that taken by the spouse group. For both groups, 35% of all pregnancies were unplanned; 19% of these without benefit of birth control. Approximately 30% of both groups said they should have timed their pregnancies differently. Female residents were more likely to perceive their pregnancies as a stressful time. Despite this greater stress, female residents were equally as unlikely as spouses of male residents to miss work for pregnancy-related causes. This study supports the need for better planning for pregnancy during residency training.

Female residents not at increased risk for adverse pregnancy outcome.

A cohort study was conducted among 45 university-affiliated residency programs to investigate potential adverse effects of residency training on pregnancy outcome. Pregnancy outcomes between female residents and spouses of male residents were similar; however, the increased risk for premature labor among female residents is a cause for concern and should be further investigated.

Reductions in ozone at high concentrations of stratospheric halogens.

An increase in the concentration of inorganic chlorine to levels comparable to that of oxidized reactive nitrogen could cause a significant change in the chemistry of the lower stratosphere leading to a reduction potentially larger than 15% in the column density of ozone. This could occur, for example by the middle of the next century, if emissions of man-made chlorocarbons were to grow at a rate of 3% per year. Ozone could be further depressed by release of industrial bromocarbon.

Helium on venus: implications for uranium and thorium.

Helium is removed at an average rate of 10(6) atoms per square centimeter per second from Venus's atmosphere by the solar wind following ionization above the plasmapause. The surface source of helium-4 on Venus is similar to that on Earth, suggesting comparable abundances of crustal uranium and thorium.

Escape of hydrogen from venus.

Recombination of O(2)(+) represents a source of fast oxygen atoms in Venus' exosphere, and subsequent collisions of oxygen atoms with hydrogen atoms lead to escape of about 10(7) hydrogen atoms per square centimeter per second. Escape of deuterium atoms is negligible, and the ratio of deuterium to hydrogen should increase with time. It is suggested that the mass-2 ion observed by Pioneer Venus is D(+), which implies a ratio of deuterium to hydrogen in the contemporary atmosphere of about 10(-2), an initial ratio of 5 x 10(-5) and an original H(2)O abundance not less than 800 grams per square centimeter.