Negative Perception of the COVID-19 Pandemic Is Dropping: Evidence From Twitter Posts.

The COVID-19 pandemic hit hard society, strongly affecting the emotions of the people and wellbeing. It is difficult to measure how the pandemic has affected the sentiment of the people, not to mention how people responded to the dramatic events that took place during the pandemic. This study contributes to this discussion by showing that the negative perception of the people of the COVID-19 pandemic is dropping. By negative perception, we mean the number of negative words the users of Twitter, a social media platform, employ in their online posts. Seen as aggregate, Twitter users are using less and less negative words as the pandemic evolves. The conclusion that the negative perception is dropping comes from a careful analysis we made in the contents of the COVID-19 Twitter chatter dataset, a comprehensive database accounting for more than 1 billion posts generated during the pandemic. We explore why the negativity of the people decreases, making connections with psychological traits such as psychophysical numbing, reappraisal, suppression, and resilience. In particular, we show that the negative perception decreased intensively when the vaccination campaign started in the USA, Canada, and the UK and has remained to decrease steadily since then. This finding led us to conclude that vaccination plays a key role in dropping the negativity of the people, thus promoting their psychological wellbeing.

Data-driven methods for present and future pandemics: Monitoring, modelling and managing.

This survey analyses the role of data-driven methodologies for pandemic modelling and control. We provide a roadmap from the access to epidemiological data sources to the control of epidemic phenomena. We review the available methodologies and discuss the challenges in the development of data-driven strategies to combat the spreading of infectious diseases. Our aim is to bring together several different disciplines required to provide a holistic approach to epidemic analysis, such as data science, epidemiology, and systems-and-control theory. A 3M-analysis is presented, whose three pillars are: Monitoring, Modelling and Managing. The focus is on the potential of data-driven schemes to address three different challenges raised by a pandemic: (i) monitoring the epidemic evolution and assessing the effectiveness of the adopted countermeasures; (ii) modelling and forecasting the spread of the epidemic; (iii) making timely decisions to manage, mitigate and suppress the contagion. For each step of this roadmap, we review consolidated theoretical approaches (including data-driven methodologies that have been shown to be successful in other contexts) and discuss their application to past or present epidemics, such as Covid-19, as well as their potential application to future epidemics.

Multitask learning and nonlinear optimal control of the COVID-19 outbreak: A geometric programming approach.

We propose a multitask learning approach to learn the parameters of a compartmental discrete-time epidemic model from various data sources and use it to design optimal control strategies of human-mobility restrictions that both curb the epidemic and minimize the economic costs associated with implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions. We develop an extension of the SEIR epidemic model that captures the effects of changes in human mobility on the spread of the disease. The parameters of the model are learned using a multitask learning approach that leverages both data on the number of deaths across a set of regions, and cellphone data on individuals' mobility patterns specific to each region. Using this model, we propose a nonlinear optimal control problem aiming to find the optimal mobility-based intervention strategy that curbs the spread of the epidemic while obeying a budget on the economic cost incurred. We also show that the solution to this nonlinear optimal control problem can be efficiently found, in polynomial time, using tools from geometric programming. Furthermore, in the absence of a straightforward mapping from human mobility data to economic costs, we propose a practical method by which a budget on economic losses incurred may be chosen to eliminate excess deaths due to over-utilization of hospital resources. Our results are demonstrated with numerical simulations using real data from the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philadelphia metropolitan area.

Large-scale dynamic modeling of task-fMRI signals via subspace system identification.

OBJECTIVE: We analyze task-based fMRI time series to produce large-scale dynamical models that are capable of approximating the observed signal with good accuracy. APPROACH: We extend subspace system identification methods for deterministic and stochastic state-space models with external inputs. The dynamic behavior of the generated models is characterized using control-theoretic analysis tools. To validate their effectiveness, we perform a probabilistic inversion of the identified input-output relationships via joint state-input maximum likelihood estimation. Our experimental setup explores a large dataset generated using state-of-the-art acquisition and pre-processing methods from the Human Connectome Project. MAIN RESULTS: We analyze both anatomically parcellated and spatially dense time series, and propose an efficient algorithm to address the high-dimensional optimization problem resulting from the latter. Our results enable the quantification of input-output transfer functions between each task condition and each region of the cortex, as exemplified by a motor task. Further, the identified models produce impulse response functions between task conditions and cortical regions that are compatible with typical hemodynamic response functions. We then extend subspace methods to account for multi-subject experimental configurations, identifying models that capture common dynamical characteristics across subjects. Finally, we show that system inversion via maximum-likelihood allows the time-of-occurrence of the task stimuli to be estimated from the observed outputs. SIGNIFICANCE: The ability to produce dynamical input-output models might have an impact in the expanding field of neurofeedback. In particular, the models we produce allow the partial quantification of the effect of external task-related inputs on the metabolic response of the brain, conditioned on its current state. Such a notion provides a basis for leveraging control-theoretic approaches to neuromodulation and self-regulation in therapeutic applications.

Spectral mapping of brain functional connectivity from diffusion imaging.

Understanding the relationship between the dynamics of neural processes and the anatomical substrate of the brain is a central question in neuroscience. On the one hand, modern neuroimaging technologies, such as diffusion tensor imaging, can be used to construct structural graphs representing the architecture of white matter streamlines linking cortical and subcortical structures. On the other hand, temporal patterns of neural activity can be used to construct functional graphs representing temporal correlations between brain regions. Although some studies provide evidence that whole-brain functional connectivity is shaped by the underlying anatomy, the observed relationship between function and structure is weak, and the rules by which anatomy constrains brain dynamics remain elusive. In this article, we introduce a methodology to map the functional connectivity of a subject at rest from his or her structural graph. Using our methodology, we are able to systematically account for the role of structural walks in the formation of functional correlations. Furthermore, in our empirical evaluations, we observe that the eigenmodes of the mapped functional connectivity are associated with activity patterns associated with different cognitive systems.

Delayed bet-hedging resilience strategies under environmental fluctuations.

Many biological populations, such as bacterial colonies, have developed through evolution a protection mechanism, called bet hedging, to increase their probability of survival under stressful environmental fluctuation. In this context, the concept of preadaptation refers to a common type of bet-hedging protection strategy in which a relatively small number of individuals in a population stochastically switch their phenotypes to a dormant metabolic state in which they increase their probability of survival against potential environmental shocks. Hence, if an environmental shock took place at some point in time, preadapted organisms would be better adapted to survive and proliferate once the shock is over. In many biological populations, the mechanisms of preadaptation and proliferation present delays whose influence in the fitness of the population are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a rigorous mathematical framework to analyze the role of delays in both preadaptation and proliferation mechanisms in the survival of biological populations, with an emphasis on bacterial colonies. Our theoretical framework allows us to analytically quantify the average growth rate of a bet-hedging bacterial colony with stochastically delayed reactions with arbitrary precision. We verify the accuracy of the proposed method by numerical simulations and conclude that the growth rate of a bet-hedging population shows a nontrivial dependency on their preadaptation and proliferation delays. Contrary to the current belief, our results show that faster reactions do not, in general, increase the overall fitness of a biological population.

Trade-offs between driving nodes and time-to-control in complex networks.

Recent advances in control theory provide us with efficient tools to determine the minimum number of driving (or driven) nodes to steer a complex network towards a desired state. Furthermore, we often need to do it within a given time window, so it is of practical importance to understand the trade-offs between the minimum number of driving/driven nodes and the minimum time required to reach a desired state. Therefore, we introduce the notion of actuation spectrum to capture such trade-offs, which we used to find that in many complex networks only a small fraction of driving (or driven) nodes is required to steer the network to a desired state within a relatively small time window. Furthermore, our empirical studies reveal that, even though synthetic network models are designed to present structural properties similar to those observed in real networks, their actuation spectra can be dramatically different. Thus, it supports the need to develop new synthetic network models able to replicate controllability properties of real-world networks.

Epidemic processes over adaptive state-dependent networks.

In this paper we study the dynamics of epidemic processes taking place in adaptive networks of arbitrary topology. We focus our study on the adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (ASIS) model, where healthy individuals are allowed to temporarily cut edges connecting them to infected nodes in order to prevent the spread of the infection. In this paper we derive a closed-form expression for a lower bound on the epidemic threshold of the ASIS model in arbitrary networks with heterogeneous node and edge dynamics. For networks with homogeneous node and edge dynamics, we show that the resulting lower bound is proportional to the epidemic threshold of the standard SIS model over static networks, with a proportionality constant that depends on the adaptation rates. Furthermore, based on our results, we propose an efficient algorithm to optimally tune the adaptation rates in order to eradicate epidemic outbreaks in arbitrary networks. We confirm the tightness of the proposed lower bounds with several numerical simulations and compare our optimal adaptation rates with popular centrality measures.

Optimal information dissemination strategy to promote preventive behaviors in multilayer epidemic networks.

Launching a prevention campaign to contain the spread of infection requires substantial financial investments; therefore, a trade-off exists between suppressing the epidemic and containing costs. Information exchange among individuals can occur as physical contacts (e.g., word of mouth, gatherings), which provide inherent possibilities of disease transmission, and non-physical contacts (e.g., email, social networks), through which information can be transmitted but the infection cannot be transmitted. Contact network (CN) incorporates physical contacts, and the information dissemination network (IDN) represents non-physical contacts, thereby generating a multilayer network structure. Inherent differences between these two layers cause alerting through CN to be more effective but more expensive than IDN. The constraint for an epidemic to die out derived from a nonlinear Perron-Frobenius problem that was transformed into a semi-definite matrix inequality and served as a constraint for a convex optimization problem. This method guarantees a dying-out epidemic by choosing the best nodes for adopting preventive behaviors with minimum monetary resources. Various numerical simulations with network models and a real-world social network validate our method.