Factors affecting spatiotemporal patterns of nest site selection and abundance in diamondback terrapins.

Determining what factors influence the distribution and abundance of wildlife populations is crucial for implementing effective conservation and management actions. Yet, for species with dynamic seasonal, sex-, and age-specific spatial ecology, like the diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin; DBT), doing so can be challenging. Moreover, environmental factors that influence the distribution and abundance of DBT in their northernmost range have not been quantitatively characterized. We investigated proximity to nesting habitat as one potential driver of spatiotemporal variation in abundance in a three-step analytical approach. First, we used a scale selection resource selection function (RSF) approach based on landcover data from the National Landcover Database (NLCD) to identify the scale at which DBT are selecting for (or avoiding) landcover types to nest. Next, we used RSF to predict areas of suitable nesting habitat and created an index of nest suitability (NSI). Finally, analyzing visual count data using a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), we investigate spatiotemporal drivers of relative abundance, with a specific focus on whether similar factors affect offshore abundance and onshore nest site selection. We found the scale of selection for developed and saltmarsh land use classes to be 550 and 600 m and open water land use classes to be 100. Selection was positive for nesting areas proximal to saltmarsh habitat and negative for developed and open water. Expected relative abundance was best explained by the interaction between NSI and day of season, where expected relative abundance was greater within high NSI areas during the nesting season (2.20 individuals, CI: 1.19-3.93) compared to areas of low NSI (1.84 individuals, CI: 1.10-3.10). Our results provide evidence that inferred spatial patterns of suitable nesting habitats explain spatiotemporal patterns of terrapin movement and abundance.

On simulating cold-stunned sea turtle strandings on Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Kemp's ridley sea turtles were on the verge of extinction in the 1960s. While these sea turtles have slowly recovered, they are still critically endangered. In the last few years, the number of strandings on the beaches of Cape Cod, Massachusetts has increased by nearly an order of magnitude relative to preceding decades. This study uses a combination of ocean observations and a well-respected ocean model to investigate the causes and transport of cold-stunned sea turtles in Cape Cod Bay. After validating the model using satellite-tracked drifters and local temperature moorings, ocean currents were examined in Cape Cod Bay in an attempt to explain stranding locations as observed by volunteers and, for some years, backtracking was conducted to examine the potential source regions. The general finding of this study is that sub 10.5°C water temperatures in combination with persistently strong wind stress (>0.4 Pa), results in increased strandings along particular sections of the coast and are dependent on the wind direction. However, it is still uncertain where in the water column the majority of cold-stunned turtles reside and, if many of them are on the surface, considerable work will need to be done to incorporate the direct effects of wind and waves on the advective processes.

Warming seas increase cold-stunning events for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the northwest Atlantic.

Since the 1970s, the magnitude of turtle cold-stun strandings have increased dramatically within the northwestern Atlantic. Here, we examine oceanic, atmospheric, and biological factors that may affect the increasing trend of cold-stunned Kemp's ridleys in Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts, United States of America. Using machine learning and Bayesian inference modeling techniques, we demonstrate higher cold-stunning years occur when the Gulf of Maine has warmer sea surface temperatures in late October through early November. Surprisingly, hatchling numbers in Mexico, a proxy for population abundance, was not identified as an important factor. Further, using our Bayesian count model and forecasted sea surface temperature projections, we predict more than 2,300 Kemp's ridley turtles may cold-stun annually by 2031 as sea surface temperatures continue to increase within the Gulf of Maine. We suggest warmer sea surface temperatures may have modified the northerly distribution of Kemp's ridleys and act as an ecological bridge between the Gulf Stream and nearshore waters. While cold-stunning may currently account for a minor proportion of juvenile mortality, we recommend continuing efforts to rehabilitate cold-stunned individuals to maintain population resiliency for this critically endangered species in the face of a changing climate and continuing anthropogenic threats.