Evaluation of bovine viral diarrhoea virus control strategies in dairy herds in Hokkaido, Japan, using stochastic modelling.

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infection in cattle can result in growth retardation, reduced milk production, reproductive disorders and death. Persistently infected animals are the primary source of infection. In Hokkaido, Japan, all cattle entering shared pastures in summer are vaccinated before movement for disease control. Additionally, these cattle may be tested for BVDV and culled if positive. However, the effectiveness of this control strategy aiming to reduce the number of BVDV-infected animals has not been assessed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of various test-and-cull and/or vaccination strategies on BVDV control in dairy farms in two districts of Hokkaido, Nemuro and Hiyama. A stochastic model was developed to compare the different control strategies over a 10-year period. The model was individual-based and simulated disease dynamics both within and between herds. Parameters included in the model were obtained from the literature, the Hokkaido government and the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Nine different scenarios were compared as follows: no control, test-and-cull strategies based on antigen testing of either calves or only cattle entering common pastures, vaccination of all adult cattle or only cattle entering shared pastures and combinations thereof. The results indicate that current strategies for BVDV control in Hokkaido slightly reduced the number of BVDV-infected animals; however, alternative strategies such as testing all calves and culling any positives or vaccinating all susceptible adult animals dramatically reduced those. To our knowledge, this is the first report regarding the comparison of the effectiveness between the current strategies in Hokkaido and the alternative strategies for BVDV control measures.

Data management systems for the bovine viral diarrhoea eradication programme in Switzerland.

A programme to eradicate bovine viral diarrhoea was launched in Switzerland in 2008 with the aim of eradicating the causal virus. During the first year of the programme, the entire population of 1.6 million cattle were tested for the presence of the virus; in the following three years an additional 1.8 million calves were tested. The complexity of information generated during the eradication programme, together with a tight schedule, made computerised data management a necessity. To organise, coordinate and supervise the programme, extensions were made to the computerised information system ISVet, of the Swiss Veterinary Service, which provides automated documents for both the Veterinary Service and private veterinarians. Specific data are accessible by user groups via the BVD-Web platform, ISVet and the Swiss animal movement database. The functionalities of the structure and the reports needed to control the progress of the programme are described in detail. The authors also discuss the major advantages, disadvantages and pitfalls when planning an eradication programme using a national centralised database over a distributed computer network.

Risk assessment for the design of a risk-based surveillance programme for fish farms in Switzerland (in accordance with Council Directive 2006/88/EC of the European Union).

Swiss aquaculture farms were assessed according to their risk of acquiring or spreading viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS) and infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN). Risk factors for the introduction and spread of VHS and IHN were defined and assessed using published data and expert opinions. Among the 357 aquaculture farms identified in Switzerland, 49.3% were categorised as high risk, 49.0% as medium risk and 1.7% as low risk. According to the new Directive 2006/88/EC for aquaculture of the European Union, the frequency of farm inspections must be derived from their risk levels. A sensitivity analysis showed that water supply and fish movements were highly influential on the output of the risk assessment regarding the introduction of VHS and IHN. Fish movements were also highly influential on the risk assessment output regarding the spread of these diseases.

An economic model to evaluate the mitigation programme for bovine viral diarrhoea in Switzerland.

Economic analyses are indispensable as sources of information to help policy makers make decisions about mitigation resource use. The aim of this study was to conduct an economic evaluation of the Swiss national mitigation programme for bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), which was implemented in 2008 and concludes in 2017. The eradication phase of the mitigation programme comprised testing and slaughtering of all persistently infected (PI) animals found. First, the whole population was antigen tested and all PI cattle removed. Since October 2008, all newborn calves have been subject to antigen testing to identify and slaughter PI calves. All mothers of PI calves were retested and slaughtered if the test was positive. Antigen testing in calves and elimination of virus-carriers was envisaged to be conducted until the end of 2011. Subsequently, a surveillance programme will document disease freedom or detect disease if it recurs. Four alternative surveillance strategies based on antibody testing in blood from newborn calves and/or milk from primiparous cows were proposed by Federal Veterinary Office servants in charge of the BVDV mitigation programme. A simple economic spreadsheet model was developed to estimate and compare the costs and benefits of the BVDV mitigation programme. In an independent project, the impact of the mitigation programme on the disease dynamics in the population was simulated using a stochastic compartment model. Mitigation costs accrued from materials, labour, and processes such as handling and testing samples, and recording results. Benefits were disease costs avoided by having the mitigation programme in place compared to a baseline of endemic disease equilibrium. Cumulative eradication costs and benefits were estimated to determine the break-even point for the eradication component of the programme. The margin over eradication cost therefore equalled the maximum expenditure potentially available for surveillance without the net benefit from the mitigation programme overall becoming zero. Costs of the four surveillance strategies and the net benefit of the mitigation programme were estimated. Simulations were run for the years 2008-2017 with 20,000 iterations in @Risk for Excel. The mean baseline disease costs were estimated to be 16.04 m CHF (1 Swiss Franc, CHF=0.73 € at the time of analysis) (90% central range, CR: 14.71-17.39 m CHF) in 2008 and 14.89 m CHF (90% CR: 13.72-16.08 m CHF) in 2009. The break-even point was estimated to be reached in 2012 and the margin over eradication cost 63.15m CHF (90% CR: 53.72-72.82 m CHF). The discounted cost for each surveillance strategy was found to be smaller than the margin, so the mitigation programme overall is expected to have a positive net economic benefit irrespective of the strategy adopted. For economic efficiency, the least cost surveillance alternative must be selected.

BVD eradication in Switzerland--a new approach.

Diverse concepts for BVD eradication or control have been applied in several countries with varying success. Results of previous studies conducted in Switzerland have shown that the prevalence of antibody-positive animals is high and that BVDV is widespread in the country causing serious economic losses. A new approach to eradicate BVD in the cattle population in Switzerland was chosen. It consists in testing the whole Swiss cattle population for virus detection in a short period of time, without initial antibody screening. Identified persistently infected (PI) animals have to be slaughtered, and new herd infections should be avoided by movement restrictions. Ear-notches are collected using special tags for labeling the animals, and are analyzed using ELISA or rtRT-PCR methods. Confirmatory tests if needed are performed on blood samples using rtRT-PCR. The eradication program is divided into four phases: (1) Pre-pasturing phase: all young bovines going to transhumance in summer have to be negative tested before. (2) Initial phase: all non-tested bovines have to be tested. Movement restrictions are effective at the same time. (3) Calves phase: all newborn calves have to be tested. (4) Surveillance phase: several strategies will be compared using a modeling approach. After the pre-pasture phase already 595,230 animals (37% of the livestock) have been tested within four months. A prevalence of 1.1% of PIs was observed. The average age of infected animals is 403 days compared to 794 days for non-infected animals, with the oldest PI-animal being over 11 years old. On average PI-animals are slaughtered within 18 days after the last positive result. The pre-pasture phase has shown that sampling and testing a high number of animals in a short time is challenging but possible. The next phase will deal with double the number of animals in a similar time frame. The coordination between all partners as well as the collaboration of farmers is the key factor for ensuring the success of the program.

[BVD eradication campaign in Switzerland: first results and outlook]. / BVD-Eradikationsprogramm in der Schweiz: Erste Zwischenbilanz und Ausblick.

The Swiss BVD eradication campaign aims at eliminating the disease from the cattle population within a few years. During the initial phase from October 1st to December 31th 2008, all bovines will be individually tested and those found virus-positive slaughtered. In the following secondary phase, all newborn calves will be tested using ear notches taken on the occasion of the regular tagging process. From 2011 onwards, freedom of disease shall be confirmed based on a routine monitoring program, starting with antibody detection in milk of first lactating cows. In order to reduce the number of new infections, all bovines "not yet calved" and destined for shared mountain pastures were pretested in spring 2008. The more than enthusiastic start led to an extension of testing far beyond the targeted segment, resulting in almost 600'000 or more than one third of the population being tested until the end of June, 1.1% of which with a positive result. This overwhelming kick-off was extremely demanding for all parties involved, but also allowed identifying many limiting steps that could be optimized in view of the initial phase.

Evaluation of the chemical residue monitoring in animal-derived products in Switzerland.

This paper evaluates whether the Swiss monitoring programme for foreign substances in animal products fulfils basic epidemiological quality requirements, and identifies possible sources of bias in the selection of samples. The sampling was analysed over a 4-year period (2002-05). The sampling frame in 37 participating abattoirs covered 51% of all slaughtered pigs, 73% of calves, 68% of beef and 36% of cows. The analysis revealed that some sub-populations as defined by the region of origin were statistically over-represented while others were under-represented. The programme that is in accordance with European Union requirements contained some relevant bias. Patterns of under-sampled regions characterized by management type differences were identified. This could lead to an underestimate of the number of contaminated animals within the programme. Although the current sampling was stratified and partially risk-based, its efficiency could be improved by adopting a more targeted approach.