Does practice analysis agree with the ambulatory care sensitive conditions' list of avoidable unplanned admissions?: a cross-sectional study in the East of England.

OBJECTIVES: To use significant event audits (SEAs) in primary care to determine which of a sample of emergency (unplanned) admissions were potentially avoidable; and compare with the National Health Service (NHS) list of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs). DESIGN: Analysis of unplanned medical admissions randomly identified in secondary care. SETTING: Primary care in the East of England. PARTICIPANTS: 20 general practice teams trained to use SEA on unplanned admissions to identify potentially preventable factors. INTERVENTIONS: SEA of admissions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Level of agreement between those admissions identified as potentially preventable by SEA and the NHS ACSC list. RESULTS: 132 (26%) of randomly selected patients with unplanned admissions gave consent and an SEA was performed by their primary practice team. 130 SEA reports had sufficient data for our analysis. Practices concluded that 17 (13%) admissions were potentially preventable. The NHS ACSC list identified 36 admissions (28%) as potentially preventable. There was a low level of agreement between the practices and the NHS list as to which admissions were preventable (kappa=0.253). The ACSC list consisted mainly of respiratory admissions whereas the practice list identified a wider range of cases and identified context-specific factors as important. CONCLUSIONS: There was disagreement between the NHS list and practice conclusions of potentially avoidable admissions. The SEAs suggest that the pathway into unplanned admission may be less dependent on the condition than on context-specific factors, and the assumption that unplanned admissions for ACSCs are reasonable indicators of performance for primary care may not be valid.

Important factors in predicting mortality outcome from stroke: findings from the Anglia Stroke Clinical Network Evaluation Study.

Background: Although variation in stroke service provision and outcomes have been previously investigated, it is less well known what service characteristics are associated with reduced short- and medium-term mortality. Methods: Data from a prospective multicentre study (2009­12) in eight acute regional NHS trusts with a catchment population of about 2.6 million were used to examine the prognostic value of patient-related factors and service characteristics on stroke mortality outcome at 7, 30 and 365 days post stroke, and time to death within 1 year. Results: A total of 2,388 acute stroke patients (mean (standard deviation) 76.9 (12.7) years; 47.3% men, 87% ischaemic stroke) were included in the study. Among patients characteristics examined increasing age, haemorrhagic stroke, total anterior circulation stroke type, higher prestroke frailty, history of hypertension and ischaemic heart disease and admission hyperglycaemia predicted 1-year mortality. Additional inclusion of stroke service characteristics controlling for patient and service level characteristics showed varying prognostic impact of service characteristics on stroke mortality over the disease course during first year after stroke at different time points. The most consistent finding was the benefit of higher nursing levels; an increase in one trained nurses per 10 beds was associated with reductions in 30-day mortality of 11­28% (P < 0.0001) and in 1-year mortality of 8­12% (P < 0.001). Conclusions: There appears to be consistent and robust evidence of direct clinical benefit on mortality up to 1 year after acute stroke of higher numbers of trained nursing staff over and above that of other recognised mortality risk factors.

Similarity of patient characteristics and outcomes in consecutive data collection on stroke admissions over one month compared to longer periods.

BACKGROUND: The usefulness of time-limited consecutive data collection compared to continuous consecutive data collection in conditions which show seasonal variations is unclear. The objective of this study is to assess whether one month of admission data can be representative of data collected over two years in the same hospitals. METHODS: We compared the baseline characteristics and discharge outcomes of stroke patients admitted in the first month (October 2009) of the Anglia Stroke Clinical Network Evaluation Study (ASCNES) with the routinely collected data over 2 years between September 2008 and April 2011 from the same 8 hospital trusts in the Anglia Stroke & Heart Clinical Network (AS&HCN) as well as seasonal cohorts from the same period. RESULTS: We included a total of 8715 stroke patients (October 2009 cohort of ASCNES (n = 308), full AS&HCN cohort (n = 8407 excluding October 2009)) as well as cohorts from different seasons. All cohorts had a similar median age. No significant differences were observed for pre-stroke residence, pre-stroke modified Rankin, weekend vs. weekday admission, time of admission, patients with atrial fibrillation, type of stroke, admission systolic blood pressure, use of thrombolysis (rTPA), in-patient mortality and discharge destination. There were statistically significant differences between cohorts with regard to Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project Classification. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke patients admitted in one month had largely indistinguishable characteristics and discharge outcomes to those admitted to the same trusts in three separate seasons and also over two years in this cohort.

The at-risk registers in severe asthma (ARRISA) study: a cluster-randomised controlled trial examining effectiveness and costs in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Patients at risk of severe exacerbations contribute disproportionally to asthma mortality, morbidity and costs. We evaluated the effectiveness and costs of using 'asthma risk registers' for these patients in primary care. METHODS: In a cluster-randomised trial, 29 primary care practices identified 911 at-risk asthma patients using British asthma guideline criteria (severe asthma plus adverse psychosocial characteristics). Intervention practices added electronic alerts to identified patients' records to flag their at-risk status and received practice-based training about using the alerts to improve patient access and opportunistic management. Control practices continued routine care. Numbers of patients experiencing the primary outcome of a moderate-severe exacerbation (resulting in death, hospitalisation, accident and emergency attendance, out-of-hours contact, or a course/boost in oral prednisolone for asthma), other healthcare and medication usage, and costs over 1 year were derived from practice-based records. RESULTS: There was no significant effect on exacerbations (control: 46.5%; intervention: 53.6%, OR, 95% CI 1.30, 0.93 to 1.80). However, this composite outcome masked relative reductions in intervention patients experiencing hospitalisations (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.94), accident and emergency (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.42 to 1.31) and out-of-hours contacts (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.37); and a relative increase in prednisolone prescription for exacerbations (OR 1.31, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.85). Furthermore, prescription of nebulised short-acting ß-agonists reduced and long-acting ß-agonists increased for intervention relative to control patients. The adjusted mean per patient healthcare cost was £138.21 lower (p=0.837) among intervention practices. CONCLUSION: Using asthma risk registers in primary care did not reduce treated exacerbations, but reduced hospitalisations and increased prescriptions of recommended preventative therapies without increasing costs.

Evaluation of stroke services in Anglia Stroke Clinical Network to examine the variation in acute services and stroke outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is the third leading cause of death in developed countries and the leading cause of long-term disability worldwide. A series of national stroke audits in the UK highlighted the differences in stroke care between hospitals. The study aims to describe variation in outcomes following stroke and to identify the characteristics of services that are associated with better outcomes, after accounting for case mix differences and individual prognostic factors. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a cohort study in eight acute NHS trusts within East of England, with at least one year of follow-up after stroke. The study population will be a systematically selected representative sample of patients admitted with stroke during the study period, recruited within each hospital. We will collect individual patient data on prognostic characteristics, health care received, outcomes and costs of care and we will also record relevant characteristics of each provider organisation. The determinants of one year outcome including patient reported outcome will be assessed statistically with proportional hazards regression models. Self (or proxy) completed EuroQol (EQ-5D) questionnaires will measure quality of life at baseline and follow-up for cost utility analyses. DISCUSSION: This study will provide observational data about health service factors associated with variations in patient outcomes and health care costs following hospital admission for acute stroke. This will form the basis for future RCTs by identifying promising health service interventions, assessing the feasibility of recruiting and following up trial patients, and provide evidence about frequency and variances in outcomes, and intra-cluster correlation of outcomes, for sample size calculations. The results will inform clinicians, public, service providers, commissioners and policy makers to drive further improvement in health services which will bring direct benefit to the patients.

Statistics teaching in medical school: opinions of practising doctors.

BACKGROUND: The General Medical Council expects UK medical graduates to gain some statistical knowledge during their undergraduate education; but provides no specific guidance as to amount, content or teaching method. Published work on statistics teaching for medical undergraduates has been dominated by medical statisticians, with little input from the doctors who will actually be using this knowledge and these skills after graduation. Furthermore, doctor's statistical training needs may have changed due to advances in information technology and the increasing importance of evidence-based medicine. Thus there exists a need to investigate the views of practising medical doctors as to the statistical training required for undergraduate medical students, based on their own use of these skills in daily practice. METHODS: A questionnaire was designed to investigate doctors' views about undergraduate training in statistics and the need for these skills in daily practice, with a view to informing future teaching. The questionnaire was emailed to all clinicians with a link to the University of East Anglia Medical School. Open ended questions were included to elicit doctors' opinions about both their own undergraduate training in statistics and recommendations for the training of current medical students. Content analysis was performed by two of the authors to systematically categorize and describe all the responses provided by participants. RESULTS: 130 doctors responded, including both hospital consultants and general practitioners. The findings indicated that most had not recognised the value of their undergraduate teaching in statistics and probability at the time, but had subsequently found the skills relevant to their career. Suggestions for improving undergraduate teaching in these areas included referring to actual research and ensuring relevance to, and integration with, clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: Grounding the teaching of statistics in the context of real research studies and including examples of typical clinical work may better prepare medical students for their subsequent career.

Health, wellbeing and nutritional status of older people living in UK care homes: an exploratory evaluation of changes in food and drink provision.

BACKGROUND: Food and drink are important determinants of physical and social health in care home residents. This study explored whether a pragmatic methodology including routinely collected data was feasible in UK care homes, to describe the health, wellbeing and nutritional status of care home residents and assess effects of changed provision of food and drink at three care homes on residents' falls (primary outcome), anaemia, weight, dehydration, cognitive status, depression, lipids and satisfaction with food and drink provision. METHODS: We measured health, wellbeing and nutritional status of 120 of 213 residents of six care homes in Norfolk, UK. An intervention comprising improved dining atmosphere, greater food choice, extended restaurant hours, and readily available snacks and drinks machines was implemented in three care homes. Three control homes maintained their previous system. Outcomes were assessed in the year before and the year after the changes. RESULTS: Use of routinely collected data was partially successful, but loss to follow up and levels of missing data were high, limiting power to identify trends in the data. This was a frail older population (mean age 87, 71% female) with multiple varied health problems. During the first year 60% of residents had one or more falls, 40% a wound care visit, and 40% a urinary tract infection. 45% were on diuretics, 24% antidepressants, and 43% on psychotropic medication. There was a slight increase in falls from year 1 to year 2 in the intervention homes, and a much bigger increase in control homes, leading to a statistically non-significant 24% relative reduction in residents' rate of falls in intervention homes compared with control homes (adjusted rate ratio 0.76, 95% CI 0.57 to 1.02, p = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Care home residents are frail and experience multiple health risks. This intervention to improve food and drink provision was well received by residents, but effects on health indicators (despite the relative reduction in falls rate) were inconclusive, partly due to problems with routine data collection and loss to follow up. Further research with more homes is needed to understand which, if any, components of the intervention may be successful.

Do doctors need statistics? Doctors' use of and attitudes to probability and statistics.

There is little published evidence on what doctors do in their work that requires probability and statistics, yet the General Medical Council (GMC) requires new doctors to have these skills. This study investigated doctors' use of and attitudes to probability and statistics with a view to informing undergraduate teaching.An email questionnaire was sent to 473 clinicians with an affiliation to the University of East Anglia's Medical School.Of 130 respondents approximately 90 per cent of doctors who performed each of the following activities found probability and statistics useful for that activity: accessing clinical guidelines and evidence summaries, explaining levels of risk to patients, assessing medical marketing and advertising material, interpreting the results of a screening test, reading research publications for general professional interest, and using research publications to explore non-standard treatment and management options.Seventy-nine per cent (103/130, 95 per cent CI 71 per cent, 86 per cent) of participants considered probability and statistics important in their work. Sixty-three per cent (78/124, 95 per cent CI 54 per cent, 71 per cent) said that there were activities that they could do better or start doing if they had an improved understanding of these areas and 74 of these participants elaborated on this. Themes highlighted by participants included: being better able to critically evaluate other people's research; becoming more research-active, having a better understanding of risk; and being better able to explain things to, or teach, other people.Our results can be used to inform how probability and statistics should be taught to medical undergraduates and should encourage today's medical students of the subjects' relevance to their future careers.

The impact of computerized prescribing on error rate in a department of Oncology/Hematology.

AIMS: A comparison of prescribing errors detected for computerized and spreadsheet prescriptions in the Department of Hematology and Oncology of the Norfolk and Norwich University hospital. METHODS: A prospective audit of 1941 prescriptions for chemotherapy was made from January to September 2005. Each new cycle of chemotherapy ordered was monitored for prescribing errors, which were analyzed by method of prescription (computerized or spreadsheet), prescriber, type, and severity. RESULTS: Computerized prescribing reduced errors by 42% (RR 0.58; 95% CI 0.47-0.72). Errors occurred in 20% of spreadsheet prescriptions compared with 12% of the computerized prescriptions. There was a significant difference in error rates of three different prescribers whichever prescribing system was used. The proportion of errors that were minor was reduced and serious was increased with little change in the proportion of significant or life-threatening errors. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of computerized prescribing on adverse drug events requires further evaluation. Prescriber training may be important in further reducing errors. The implementation of all the existing functions of the electronic system should lead to further reduction in errors.

Blood levels of vitamin C, carotenoids and retinol are inversely associated with cataract in a North Indian population.

PURPOSE: To examine the association of blood antioxidants with cataract. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of people aged >or=50 years identified from a household enumeration of 11 randomly sampled villages in North India. Participants were interviewed for putative risk factors (tobacco, alcohol, biomass fuel use, sunlight exposure, and socioeconomic status) and underwent lens photography and blood sampling. Lens photographs (nuclear, cortical, and posterior subcapsular) were graded according to the Lens Opacities Classification System (LOCS II). Cataract was defined as LOCS II grade >or=2 for any opacity or ungradable, because of dense opacification or history of cataract surgery. People without cataract were defined as LOCS II <2 on all three types of opacity, with absence of previous surgery. RESULTS: Of 1443 people aged >or=50 years, 94% were interviewed, 87% attended an eye examination, and 78% gave a blood sample; 1112 (77%) were included in the analyses. Compared with levels in Western populations, antioxidants were low, especially vitamin C. Vitamin C was inversely associated with cataract. Odds ratios (OR) for the highest (>or=15 micromol/L) compared with the lowest (

Prevalence of early and late age-related macular degeneration in a rural population in northern India: the INDEYE feasibility study.

PURPOSE: To assess the prevalence of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in a rural population in Northern India. METHODS: In a pilot feasibility study, 1443 people (median age, 60 years; 52% women), were identified from enumeration of the 50+ age group in 11 randomly sampled villages from a rural, periurban district of Haryana, Northern India. Of those identified, 87% attended an eye examination that included digital fundus photography. Fundus images were graded at a single reading center using definitions from the Wisconsin Age-Related Maculopathy Grading System. RESULTS: Fundus photographs were available for 1101 participants. Overall, 28.8% of participants had ungradable fundus images due to cataract. Including all with ungradable images in the denominator, the prevalence of soft drusen was 34.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 26.1-42.9); of soft indistinct drusen, 2.2% (95% CI, 1.1-4.4); and of pigmentary irregularities, 10.8% (95% CI, 7.1-16.1). There were 15 (1.4%) cases of late-stage AMD (95% CI, 0.8-2.3) with the prevalence rising from 0.4% in the 50- to 59-year age range to 4.6% in those aged 70 years or older. CONCLUSIONS: Drusen and pigmentary irregularities are common among the rural northern Indian population. The prevalence of late AMD is similar to that encountered in Western settings and is likely to contribute significantly to the burden of vision loss in older people in the developing world.

Prevalence of lens opacities in North India: the INDEYE feasibility study.

PURPOSE: To obtain estimates of the prevalence of lens opacities in an Indian setting by using photographically acquired lens images. METHODS: In 11 randomly sampled villages from a rural district of Haryana, North India, 1443 people (median age 60 years), 52% women, were identified from enumeration of the > or =50-year age group; 87% attended an eye examination. Digital images of cortical and posterior subcapsular opacities and photographs of nuclear opacities were graded using the Lens Opacity Classification System (LOCS) II. The prevalence of opacities was based on a grade of 2 or higher in the worse eye for nuclear, cortical, or posterior subcapsular opacities. RESULTS: Of the participants, 1071 people had gradable images; a further 163 had undergone surgery or had dense opacities. Nuclear opacities were the most common type, with an overall prevalence of 56.9% (95% CI, 53.0-60.6). Posterior subcapsular opacities occurred in 20.6% (95% CI, 17.9-25.8) and cortical opacities in 21.6% (95% CI, 17.9-25.8). Prevalence rose steeply with age for all opacities and was higher in the women than in the men for cortical opacities (P = 0.03). The prevalence of any type of lens opacity including surgical cases and dense opacities was 75.3% (95% CI, 71.4-78.81). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the substantial excess of lens opacities in India compared with Western populations.

Weight, shape, and mortality risk in older persons: elevated waist-hip ratio, not high body mass index, is associated with a greater risk of death.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for optimal weight in older persons are limited by uncertainty about the ideal body mass index (BMI) or the usefulness of alternative anthropometric measures. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association of BMI (in kg/m(2)), waist circumference, and waist-hip ratio (WHR) with mortality and cause-specific mortality. DESIGN: Subjects aged >/=75 y (n = 14 833) from 53 family practices in the United Kingdom underwent a health assessment that included measurement of BMI and waist and hip circumferences; they also were followed up for mortality. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 5.9 y, 6649 subjects died (46% of circulatory causes). In nonsmoking men and women (90% of the cohort), compared with the lowest quintile of BMI (<23 in men and <22.3 in women), adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality were <1 for all other quintiles of BMI (P for trend = 0.0003 and 0.0001 in men and women, respectively). Increasing WHR was associated with increasing HRs in men and women (P for trend = 0.008 and 0.0002, respectively). BMI was not associated with circulatory mortality in men (P for trend = 0.667) and was negatively associated in women (P for trend = 0.004). WHR was positively related to circulatory mortality in both men and women (P for trend = 0.001 and 0.005, respectively). Waist circumference was not associated with all-cause or circulatory mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Current guidelines for BMI-based risk categories overestimate risks due to excess weight in persons aged >/=75 y. Increased mortality risk is more clearly indicated for relative abdominal obesity as measured by high WHR.

Are older people dying of depression? Findings from the Medical Research Council trial of the assessment and management of older people in the community.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the relationship between symptoms of depression and mortality in older people. DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal study. SETTING: Fifty-three general practices in the United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: Thirteen thousand ninety-seven people aged 75 and older participating in the Medical Research Council Trial of the Assessment and Management of Older People in the Community. MEASUREMENTS: Depression was measured using the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15); the main outcome was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Morbidity, disability, and lifestyle factors can explain most of the observed relationship between symptoms of depression and mortality (hazard ratio=1.75, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.53-1.99), but after mutual adjustment for these factors, subjects who reported six or more symptoms of depression on the GDS-15 were still 27% more likely to have died by the end of the follow-up period than those below the threshold for depression (95% CI=1.11-1.45). CONCLUSION: The findings from this study suggest that depression confers a small risk for mortality in older people, not explained solely by poor health. The results support the encouragement of effective diagnosis, treatment, and support for individuals with depression as highlighted by the World Health Organization and the UK National Service Framework for older people.

Population-based multidimensional assessment of older people in UK general practice: a cluster-randomised factorial trial.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of multidimensional assessment and management of older people remains controversial. Most trials have been too small to produce adequate evidence to inform policy. We aimed to measure the effects of different approaches to assessment and management of older people. METHODS: We undertook a cluster-randomised factorial trial in 106 general practices (43219 eligible patients aged 75 years and older, 78% participation), comparing (1) universal versus targeted assessment and (2) subsequent management by hospital outpatient geriatric team versus the primary-care team. All participants received a brief multidimensional assessment followed by a nurse-led in-depth assessment in the universal group, whereas in the targeted group the in-depth assessment was offered only to those with problems established at the brief assessment. Referrals to the randomised team (geriatric management or primary care), other medical or social services, health-care workers, or agencies, and emergency referrals to the general practitioner were based on a standard protocol at the in-depth assessment. The primary endpoints were mortality, admissions to hospital and institution, and quality of life. Analysis was by intention to treat and per protocol. This trial has been assigned the International Standardised Randomised Controlled Trial Number ISRCTN23494848. FINDINGS: Mortality and hospital or institutional admissions did not differ between groups. During 3 years' follow-up, significant improvements in quality of life resulted from universal versus targeted assessment in terms of homecare, and from management by geriatric team versus primary-care team, in terms of mobility, social interaction, and morale. However, only the result for social interaction was consistent with a small but important effect. INTERPRETATION: The different forms of multidimensional assessment offered almost no differences in patient outcome.

Local area deprivation and urban-rural differences in anxiety and depression among people older than 75 years in Britain.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the association of depression and anxiety with "area deprivation" (neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation) and population density among people older than 75 years in Britain. METHODS: Postal codes were used to link census area information to individual data on depression and anxiety in 13349 people aged 75 years and older taking part in a trial of health screening. RESULTS: Living in the most socioeconomically deprived areas was associated with depression (OR=1.4), but this relation disappeared after adjusting for individual deprivation characteristics. There was no association with anxiety. Living in the highest density and intermediate low-density areas was associated with depression (OR=1.6 and 1.5) and anxiety (OR=1.5 and 1.3) compared with the lowest density areas. CONCLUSIONS: An association between area deprivation and depression in older people was explained by individual health, demographic, and socioeconomic factors. Higher population density was consistently associated with increased depression and anxiety.

Trends in influenza vaccination uptake among people aged over 74 years, 1997-2000: survey of 73 general practices in Britain.

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination policy for elderly people in Britain has changed twice since 1997 to increase protection against influenza but there is no information available on how this has affected vaccine uptake, and socioeconomic variation therein, among people aged over 74 years. METHODS: Vaccination information for 1997-2000 was collected directly from general practices taking part in a MRC-funded Trial of the Assessment and Management of Older People in the Community. This was linked to information collected during assessments carried out as part of the Trial. Regression modelling was used to assess relative probabilities (as relative risks, RR) of having vaccination according to year, gender, age, area and individual socioeconomic characteristics. RESULTS: Out of 106 potential practices, 73 provided sufficient information to be included in the analysis. Uptake was 48% (95% CI 45%, 55%) in 1997 and did not increase substantially until 2000 when the uptake was a third higher at 63% (50%, 66%). Vaccination uptake was lower among women than men (RR 0.9), people aged 85 or more compared to people aged under 80 (RR 0.9), those in the most deprived areas (RR 0.8) compared to the least deprived, and was relatively high for those in owner-occupied homes with central heating compared to other non-supported housing (RR for remainder = 0.9). This pattern did not change over the years studied. CONCLUSIONS: Increased uptake in 2000 may have resulted from the additional financial resources given to practices; it was not at the expense of more disadvantaged socioeconomic groups but nor did they benefit disproportionately.