An event-by-event probabilistic methodology for assessing the health risks of persistent chemicals in fish: a case study at the Palos Verdes Shelf.

A human health risk assessment of recreational anglers who consume fish from the Palos Verdes Shelf was conducted. The uptake of DDT, DDE, and DDD (collectively total DDT or tDDT) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) due to fish ingestion was characterized using Monte Carlo techniques. This analysis relied upon 176 probability density functions developed from over 300,000 individual pieces of information to represent 17 different exposure factors that influence the human uptake of persistent organic chemicals in fish. The carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risks were estimated using a microexposure event modeling approach that estimates exposure on an event-by-event basis. This evaluation relied upon several large studies that provided site-specific data on angler behavior and concentratioins of chemicals in 13 fish species. Our results indicate that the median theoretical increased lifetime cancer risk associated with estimated exposure to tDDT and PCBs was 5 x 10(-8) for anglers who fish on commercial passenger fishing vessels (CPFVs) and who catch and eat fish from the Palos Verdes Shelf. The mean risk for these anglers was 2 x 10(-7), and the 95th percentile risk was 8 x 10(-7). At the 9.5th percentile, the hazard quotients for anglers were less than 1, indicating that noncancer effects are unlikely. These results are in contrast with prior risk assessments of this site that suggested that consumption of white croaker alone posed a cancer risk of 2 x 10(-3) and a hazard quotient of 32. Our results were validated by their agreement with several independent local studies regarding fishing and consumption practices. This assessment indicates that the levels of tDDT and PCB in fish at the Palos Verdes Shelf do not pose a significant risk to human health among recreational anglers. Based on the size of the local angler population, no cases of cancer would be expected to result from eating Palos Verdes Shelf fish. The methodology used here should be applicable to characterizing the risks to those who ingest fish from the waterways of most industrialized nations.

Assessing aggregate and cumulative pesticide risks using a probabilistic model.

Determining aggregate and cumulative risks from exposures to pesticides presents a number of challenges. The analysis must capture the correlations in residues that occur from both additive and exclusionary processes in the use of pesticides. The analysis also requires a quantitative mechanism for evaluating risks associated with exposures to mixtures of pesticides. This paper presents an analysis of aggregate exposures and risks associated with exposures to a pesticide, Alpha, and the cumulative exposure to and risk from three pesticides, Alpha, Beta, and Gamma. The cumulative risks are evaluated by determining the systemic (absorbed) doses that result from inhalation, dermal, and oral exposures to the pesticides. A 'relative toxicity' model is used to evaluate cumulative risks. The assessment of cumulative exposure was performed using the LifeLine Version 1.0. The model simulates pesticide exposure using an individual-based approach where daily exposures are evaluated for each person, season, and location.

The effect of cooking practices on the concentration of DDT and PCB compounds in the edible tissue of fish.

Chemical contaminants in fish can be an important source of human exposure to chemicals. Assessments of the fish consumption pathway need to adjust the concentrations of the chemical to account for reductions in 1,1-bis(4-chlorophenyl)-2,2-dichloroethane (DDD), dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) (herein collectively referred to as total DDT or tDDT) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) that can occur during cooking. The results of this analysis indicate that baking, frying, broiling, boiling, smoking, and microwaving all effectively reduce the concentrations of tDDT and PCBs in fish tissue. Average reductions in tDDT ranged from 16 to 55% depending on the cooking method. Similar reductions in PCBs ranged from 26 to 68%. An evaluation of the factors influencing the degree of cooking loss indicated that neither initial chemical mass in the raw fillet, fillet lipid content, nor skin removal were significant predictors of the percent reduction in tDDT or PCB.

A probabilistic framework for the reference dose (probabilistic RfD).

Determining the probabilistic limits for the uncertainty factors used in the derivation of the Reference Dose (RfD) is an important step toward the goal of characterizing the risk of noncarcinogenic effects from exposure to environmental pollutants. If uncertainty factors are seen, individually, as "upper bounds" on the dose-scaling factor for sources of uncertainty, then determining comparable upper bounds for combinations of uncertainty factors can be accomplished by treating uncertainty factors as distributions, which can be combined by probabilistic techniques. This paper presents a conceptual approach to probabilistic uncertainty factors based on the definition and use of RfDs by the U.S. EPA. The approach does not attempt to distinguish one uncertainty factor from another based on empirical data or biological mechanisms but rather uses a simple displaced lognormal distribution as a generic representation of all uncertainty factors. Monte Carlo analyses show that the upper bounds for combinations of this distribution can vary by factors of two to four when compared to the fixed-value uncertainty factor approach. The probabilistic approach is demonstrated in the comparison of Hazard Quotients based on RfDs with differing number of uncertainty factors.

An approach for modeling noncancer dose responses with an emphasis on uncertainty.

This paper presents an approach for characterizing the probability of adverse effects occurring in a population exposed to dose rates in excess of the Reference Dose (RfD). The approach uses a linear threshold (hockey stick) model of response and is based on the current system of uncertainty factors used in setting RfDs. The approach requires generally available toxicological estimates such as No-Observed-Adverse-Effect Levels (NOAELs) or Benchmark Doses and doses at which adverse effects are observed in 50% of the test animals (ED50s). In this approach, Monte Carlo analysis is used to characterize the uncertainty in the dose response slope based on the range and magnitude of the key sources of uncertainty in setting protective doses. The method does not require information on the shape of the dose response curve for specific chemicals, but is amenable to the inclusion of such data. The approach is applied to four compounds to produce estimates of response rates for dose rates greater than the RfD.

Uncertainty and variation in indirect exposure assessments: an analysis of exposure to tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin from a beef consumption pathway.

Indirect exposures to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and other toxic materials released in incinerator emissions have been identified as a significant concern for human health. As a result, regulatory agencies and researchers have developed specific approaches for evaluating exposures from indirect pathways. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the effect of uncertainty and variation in exposure parameters on the resulting estimates of TCDD dose rates received by individuals indirectly exposed to incinerator emissions through the consumption of home-grown beef. The assessment uses a nested Monte Carlo model that separately characterizes uncertainty and variation in dose rate estimates. Uncertainty resulting from limited data on the fate and transport of TCDD are evaluated, and variations in estimated dose rates in the exposed population that result from location-specific parameters and individuals' behaviors are characterized. The analysis indicates that lifetime average daily dose rates for individuals living within 10 km of a hypothetical incinerator range over three orders of magnitude. In contrast, the uncertainty in the dose rate distribution appears to vary by less than one order of magnitude, based on the sources of uncertainty included in this analysis. Current guidance for predicting exposures from indirect exposure pathways was found to overestimate the intakes for typical and high-end individuals.

Exposure assessment: then, now, and quantum leaps in the future.

Health risk assessments have become so widely accepted in the United States that their conclusions are a major factor in many environmental decisions. Although the risk assessment paradigm is 10 years old, the basic risk assessment process has been used by certain regulatory agencies for nearly 40 years. Each of the four components of the paradigm has undergone significant refinements, particularly during the last 5 years. A recent step in the development of the exposure assessment component can be found in the 1992 EPA Guidelines for Exposure Assessment. Rather than assuming worst-case or hypothetical maximum exposures, these guidelines are designed to lead to an accurate characterization, making use of a number of scientific advances. Many exposure parameters have become better defined, and more sensitive techniques now exist for measuring concentrations of contaminants in the environment. Statistical procedures for characterizing variability, using Monte Carlo or similar approaches, eliminate the need to select point estimates for all individual exposure parameters. These probabilistic models can more accurately characterize the full range of exposures that may potentially be encountered by a given population at a particular site, reducing the need to select highly conservative values to account for this form of uncertainty in the exposure estimate. Lastly, our awareness of the uncertainties in the exposure assessment as well as our knowledge as to how best to characterize them will almost certainly provide evaluations that will be more credible and, therein, more useful to risk managers.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The effect of cooking processes on PCB levels in edible fish tissue.

A significant factor in estimating human intake of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) from fish consumption is the loss of PCBs during cooking. The total amount of PCBs actually consumed in the cooked fish may be significantly lower than the PCB level present before cooking because lipids and lipophilic compounds like PCBs tend to be removed from the fish during cooking. Several studies investigating the extent of loss of PCB compounds during the cooking process have been published in the peer-reviewed literature. However, because of what is perceived as inconsistent and inadequate data on the removal of these compounds, federal and state regulators typically do not assume that cooking reduces contaminant levels (EPA, 1990; 1991). In this paper, an attempt was made to reduce the uncertainty in the findings of these studies on PCB losses during the cooking process. This was accomplished by (1) eliminating studies that lacked statistical power to determine the degree of reduction, (2) reporting all of the results in a common format, and (3) characterizing studies by cooking method. In addition, the studies that reported increases in PCB concentration after cooking were carefully reviewed to provide a possible explanation of this occurrence. Based upon this analysis, it was concluded that cooking processes such as baking, broiling, microwave cooking, poaching, and roasting remove approximately 20 to 30% of the PCBs. Frying appears to remove more than 50%. PCB cooking losses also appears to be a function of the initial lipid concentration in the fish. Based upon this analysis, it is clear that the information from these studies do provide a reasonable basis for federal and state regulators to permit a quantitative adjust of PCB intakes.

Reevaluation of benzene exposure for the Pliofilm (rubberworker) cohort (1936-1976).

The Pliofilm cohort is the most intensely studied group of workers chronically exposed to benzene. Information on this cohort has been the basis for regulations and/or guidelines for occupational and environmental exposure to benzene. Rinsky et al. (1986, 1987) and Crump and Allen (1984) developed different approaches for reconstructing the exposure history of each member of the group. The predicted levels of exposure, combined with the data on the incidence of disease, have been used to estimate benzene's carcinogenic potency. In this paper, recent information from worker interviews and historical records from the National Archives and elsewhere were used to evaluate the accuracy of prior exposure estimates and to develop better ones for the cohort. The following factors were accounted for: (1) uptake of benzene due to short-term, high-level exposure to vapors, (2) uptake due to background concentrations in the manufacturing building, (3) uptake due to contact with the skin, (4) morbidity and mortality data on workers in the Pliofilm process, (5) the installation of industrial hygiene engineering controls, (6) extraordinarily long work weeks during the 1940s, (7) data indicating that airborne concentrations of benzene were underestimated due to inaccurate monitoring devices and the lack of adequate field calibration mated due to inaccurate monitoring devices and the lack of adequate field calibration of these devices, and (8) likely effectiveness of respirators and gloves. Our estimates suggest that Crump and Allen (1984) overestimated the exposure of workers in some job classifications and underestimated others, and that Rinsky et al. (1981, 1986) almost certainly underestimated the exposure of nearly all workers. Airborne concentrations of benzene at the St. Marys facility during the years of its operation were found (on average) to be about half those of the two Akron facilities. Our analysis indicates that short-term, high-level exposure to benzene vapors and dermal exposure significantly increased (by about 25-50%) the total absorbed dose of benzene for some workers. One of the key findings was that, unlike prior analyses, the three facilities probably had significantly different airborne concentrations of benzene, especially during the 1940s and 1950s.

Student nurses' assessment of children in pain.

A self-administered questionnaire was developed to ascertain the criteria that student nurses used to assess children in pain. The sample consisted of 17 second-year registered general nurse students who had just completed their paediatric secondment. The questionnaire required the students to provide their own definition of pain, to rate the pain of four hypothetical children, giving reasons for their ratings and provide data about their assessment of a child they had cared for. Definitions of pain concentrated mainly on the physical effects of pain on patients. The students attributed a wide range of pain ratings to the hypothetical children, though the reasons for reaching these differing conclusions were often based on similar statements. There was limited reference to either personal episodes of pain or previous nursing experience. In their own assessment of children in pain the students appeared to use all the acknowledged criteria. The use of physiological signs was in some circumstances possibly inappropriate.