Developing and validating a prediction model of adolescent major depressive disorder in the offspring of depressed parents.

BACKGROUND: Parental depression is common and is a major risk factor for depression in adolescents. Early identification of adolescents at elevated risk of developing major depressive disorder (MDD) in this group could improve early access to preventive interventions. METHODS: Using longitudinal data from 337 adolescents at high familial risk of depression, we developed a risk prediction model for adolescent MDD. The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 1,384 adolescents at high familial risk. We assessed predictors at baseline and MDD at follow-up (a median of 2-3 years later). We compared the risk prediction model to a simple comparison model based on screening for depressive symptoms. Decision curve analysis was used to identify which model-predicted risk score thresholds were associated with the greatest clinical benefit. RESULTS: The MDD risk prediction model discriminated between those adolescents who did and did not develop MDD in the development (C-statistic = .783, IQR (interquartile range) = .779, .778) and the validation samples (C-statistic = .722, IQR = -.694, .741). Calibration in the validation sample was good to excellent (calibration intercept = .011, C-slope = .851). The MDD risk prediction model was superior to the simple comparison model where discrimination was no better than chance (C-statistic = .544, IQR = .536, .572). Decision curve analysis found that the highest clinical utility was at the lowest risk score thresholds (0.01-0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The developed risk prediction model successfully discriminated adolescents who developed MDD from those who did not. In practice, this model could be further developed with user involvement into a tool to target individuals for low-intensity, selective preventive intervention.

Borderline personality and attention-deficit hyperactivity traits in childhood are associated with hypomanic features in early adulthood.

BACKGROUND: There is limited understanding of the symptomatic development of bipolar disorder from childhood to early adulthood. AIMS: We assessed whether borderline personality disorder traits, ADHD, and emotional, behavioural and social difficulties during childhood were associated with hypomania assessed in young adulthood. METHOD: We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), to examine associations between measures of childhood psychopathology and lifetime hypomanic features assessed at age 22-23 years using the Hypomania Checklist-32 (HCL-32; n = 3372). We also conducted a factor analysis of the HCL to identify latent constructs underlying hypomania, and the extent to which childhood psychopathology was associated with these. RESULTS: We identified two factors of the HCL corresponding to energy/mood and risk-taking/irritability. There was evidence of association between childhood borderline personality disorder traits and both hypomania factors, with evidence that the association was stronger with the risk-taking/irritability factor. All individual borderline traits, with the exception of fear of abandonment, were associated with hypomania. There was also evidence of association between most other measures of childhood psychopathology (ADHD, hyperactivity, conduct problems, peer relationship problems and reduced prosocial behaviour) and the risk-taking/irritability factor, but much less consistent evidence of association with the energy/mood factor. LIMITATIONS: The HCL cannot diagnose bipolar disorder and may be subject to reporting bias. CONCLUSIONS: A broad range of childhood psychopathologies may represent early markers of risk for hypomania. Further studies are required to understand the mechanisms underlying these associations, and to inform earlier detection of bipolar disorder.