Predicting and testing a silo-free delivery system.

Given the scale and complexity of the challenge of addressing the aging population, increasing demand for complex and integrated care, this article sets out potential opportunities to predict a future without silos, based on international learnings. Examining another country's health and delivery systems, it is interesting to see the similarities and differences, so we offer some reflections applicable to Canada. These models are breaking down the silos. Imagine a setting where you could collaboratively co-design scenarios, debate, refine policy, and predict future population needs. Using a transformation lab setting, governments and policy-makers, providers, patients, families, and community support groups could collaboratively take the time to learn new ways of working together in a risk-free environment before becoming accountable for delivering targeted outcomes. It is time to implement provincial transformation labs to test local strategies and operational plans to co-design scenarios, use simulation, and test the choices using evidence-based tools.

Using simulation modelling to test the impact of future demand for end-of-life care.

Health systems globally are exploring new models of care to address the increasing demand for palliative, hospice, and end-of-life care. Yet few tools exist at the population level to explore "what if" scenarios and test, in a "cost avoidance environment," the impact of these new care models on policy, workforce, technology, and funding. This article introduces the application of scenario-based "what if" thinking and discrete event simulation in strategic planning for a not-for-profit hospice organization. It will describe how a set of conceptual models was designed to frame discussions between strategic partners about the implications and alternatives in implementing a new, integrated service model for palliative and end-of-life care.