Future Lyme disease risk in the south-eastern United States based on projected land cover.

Lyme disease is the most significant vector-borne disease in the United States, and its southward advance over several decades has been quantified. Previous research has examined the potential role of climate change on the disease's expansion, but no studies have considered the role of future land cover upon its distribution. This research examines Lyme disease risk in the south-eastern U.S. based on projected land cover developed under four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. Land cover types and edge indices significantly associated with Lyme disease in Virginia were incorporated into a spatial Poisson regression model to quantify potential land cover suitability for Lyme disease in the south-eastern U.S. under each scenario. Our results indicate an intensification of potential land cover suitability for Lyme disease under the A scenarios and a decrease of potential land cover suitability under the B scenarios. The decrease under the B scenarios is a critical result, indicating that Lyme disease risk can be decreased by making different land cover choices. Additionally, health officials can focus efforts in projected high incidence areas.

An Examination of the Demographic and Environmental Variables Correlated with Lyme Disease Emergence in Virginia.

Lyme disease is the United States' most significant vector-borne illness. Virginia, on the southern edge of the disease's currently expanding range, has experienced an increase in Lyme disease both spatially and temporally, with steadily increasing rates over the past decade and disease spread from the northern to the southwestern part of the state. This study used a Geographic Information System and a spatial Poisson regression model to examine correlations between demographic and land cover variables, and human Lyme disease from 2006 to 2010 in Virginia. Analysis indicated that herbaceous land cover is positively correlated with Lyme disease incidence rates. Areas with greater interspersion between herbaceous and forested land were also positively correlated with incidence rates. In addition, income and age were positively correlated with incidence rates. Levels of development, interspersion of herbaceous and developed land, and population density were negatively correlated with incidence rates. Abundance of forest fragments less than 2 hectares in area was not significantly correlated. Our results support some findings of previous studies on ecological variables and Lyme disease in endemic areas, but other results have not been found in previous studies, highlighting the potential contribution of new variables as Lyme disease continues to emerge southward.

Spatial and temporal emergence pattern of Lyme disease in Virginia.

The emergence of infectious diseases over the past several decades has highlighted the need to better understand epidemics and prepare for the spread of diseases into new areas. As these diseases expand their geographic range, cases are recorded at different geographic locations over time, making the analysis and prediction of this expansion complicated. In this study, we analyze spatial patterns of the disease using a statistical smoothing analysis based on areal (census tract level) count data of Lyme disease cases in Virginia from 1998 to 2011. We also use space and space-time scan statistics to reveal the presence of clusters in the spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of Lyme disease. Our results confirm and quantify the continued emergence of Lyme disease to the south and west in states along the eastern coast of the United States. The results also highlight areas where education and surveillance needs are highest.

Evaluating terrestrial carbon sequestration options for Virginia.

Changes in forest and agricultural land management practices have the potential to increase carbon (C) storage by terrestrial systems, thus offsetting C emissions to the atmosphere from energy production. This study assesses that potential for three terrestrial management practices within the state of Virginia, USA: afforestation of marginal agricultural lands; afforestation of riparian agricultural lands; and changing tillage practices for row crops; each was evaluated on a statewide basis and for seven regions within the state. Lands eligible for each practice were identified, and the C storage potential of each practice on those lands was estimated through a modeling procedure that utilized land-resource characteristics represented in Geographic Information System databases. Marginal agricultural lands' afforestation was found to have the greatest potential (1.4 Tg C yr(-1), on average, over the first 20 years) if applied on all eligible lands, followed by riparian afforestation (0.2 Tg C yr(-1) over 20 years) and tillage conversion (0.1 Tg C yr(-1) over 14 years). The regions with the largest potentials are the Ridge and Valley of western Virginia (due to extensive areas of steep, shallow soils) and in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain in eastern Virginia (wet soils). Although widespread and rapid implementation of the three modeled practices could be expected to offset only about 3.4% of Virginia's energy-related CO(2) emissions over the following 20 years (equivalent to about 8.5% of a Kyoto Treaty-based target), they could contribute to achievement of C-management goals if implemented along with other mitigation measures.