Baseline CD4+ T-cell counts predict HBV viral kinetics to adefovir treatment in lamivudine-resistant HBV-infected patients with or without HIV infection.

BACKGROUND: Coinfection with HIV and hepatitis B virus (HBV) substantially alters the course of HBV. Directly acting anti-HBV agents suppress HBV viral levels; however, the kinetics of HBV decline in mono- and coinfected persons have not been evaluated. We investigated the role of baseline CD4+ T-cell counts as a predictor of HBV response to adefovir (ADV) therapy in chronic HBV with and without HIV coinfection. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study of HIV-infected (n = 12) and uninfected (n = 5) chronic HBV patients treated with ADV. Five HIV uninfected patients received ADV; the HIV+ patients received ADV or placebo for a total of 48 weeks. At the end of 48 weeks, all patients received open-label ADV for an additional 48 weeks. HBV, HIV viral loads, CD4+ T-cell counts, and safety labs were performed on days 0, 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 14, and 28 and then every 4 weeks. RESULTS: Lower HBV slopes were observed among coinfected compared to monoinfected patients (P = .027 at 4 weeks, P = .019 at 24 weeks, and P = .045 at 48 weeks). Using a mixed model analysis, we found a significant difference between the slopes of the 2 groups at 48 weeks (P = .045). Baseline CD4+ T-cell count was the only independent predictor of HBV decline in all patients. CONCLUSION: HIV coinfection is associated with slower HBV response to ADV. Baseline CD4+ T-cell count and not IL28B genotype is an independent predictor of HBV decline in all patients, emphasizing the role of immune status on clearance of HBV.

Cycling of gut mucosal CD4+ T cells decreases after prolonged anti-retroviral therapy and is associated with plasma LPS levels.

The gut mucosa is an important site of HIV immunopathogenesis with severe depletion of CD4+ T cells occurring during acute infection. The effect of prolonged anti-retroviral therapy (ART) on cycling and restoration of T lymphocytes in the gut remains unclear. Colon and terminal ileal biopsies and peripheral blood samples were collected from viremic, untreated, HIV-infected participants, patients treated with prolonged ART (>5 years), and uninfected controls and analyzed by flow cytometry. In the gut, the proportion of cycling T cells decreased and the number of CD4+ T cells normalized in treated patients in parallel with beta 7 expression on CD4+ T cells in blood. Cycling of gut T cells in viremic patients was associated with increased plasma LPS levels, but not colonic HIV-RNA. These data suggest that gut T-cell activation and microbial translocation may be interconnected whereas prolonged ART may decrease activation and restore gut CD4+ T cells.

Treatment intensification does not reduce residual HIV-1 viremia in patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy.

In HIV-1-infected individuals on currently recommended antiretroviral therapy (ART), viremia is reduced to <50 copies of HIV-1 RNA per milliliter, but low-level residual viremia appears to persist over the lifetimes of most infected individuals. There is controversy over whether the residual viremia results from ongoing cycles of viral replication. To address this question, we conducted 2 prospective studies to assess the effect of ART intensification with an additional potent drug on residual viremia in 9 HIV-1-infected individuals on successful ART. By using an HIV-1 RNA assay with single-copy sensitivity, we found that levels of viremia were not reduced by ART intensification with any of 3 different antiretroviral drugs (efavirenz, lopinavir/ritonavir, or atazanavir/ritonavir). The lack of response was not associated with the presence of drug-resistant virus or suboptimal drug concentrations. Our results suggest that residual viremia is not the product of ongoing, complete cycles of viral replication, but rather of virus output from stable reservoirs of infection.

Effects on blood lipids of a blood pressure-lowering diet: the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) Trial.

BACKGROUND: Effects of diet on blood lipids are best known in white men, and effects of type of carbohydrate on triacylglycerol concentrations are not well defined. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to determine the effects of diet on plasma lipids, focusing on subgroups by sex, race, and baseline lipid concentrations. DESIGN: This was a randomized controlled outpatient feeding trial conducted in 4 field centers. The subjects were 436 participants of the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) Trial [mean age: 44.6 y; 60% African American; baseline total cholesterol: < or = 6.7 mmol/L (< or = 260 mg/dL)]. The intervention consisted of 8 wk of a control diet, a diet increased in fruit and vegetables, or a diet increased in fruit, vegetables, and low-fat dairy products and reduced in saturated fat, total fat, and cholesterol (DASH diet), during which time subjects remained weight stable. The main outcome measures were fasting total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and triacylglycerol. RESULTS: Relative to the control diet, the DASH diet resulted in lower total (-0.35 mmol/L, or -13.7 mg/dL), LDL- (-0.28 mmol/L, or -10.7 mg/dL), and HDL- (-0.09 mmol/L, or -3.7 mg/dL) cholesterol concentrations (all P < 0.0001), without significant effects on triacylglycerol. The net reductions in total and LDL cholesterol in men were greater than those in women by 0.27 mmol/L, or 10.3 mg/dL (P = 0.052), and by 0.29 mmol/L, or 11.2 mg/dL (P < 0.02), respectively. Changes in lipids did not differ significantly by race or baseline lipid concentrations, except for HDL, which decreased more in participants with higher baseline HDL-cholesterol concentrations than in those with lower baseline HDL-cholesterol concentrations. The fruit and vegetable diet produced few significant lipid changes. CONCLUSIONS: The DASH diet is likely to reduce coronary heart disease risk. The possible opposing effect on coronary heart disease risk of HDL reduction needs further study.

An improved double sampling procedure based on the variance.

Sample size calculations for a continuous outcome require specification of the anticipated variance; inaccurate specification can result in an underpowered or overpowered study. For this reason, adaptive methods whereby sample size is recalculated using the variance of a subsample have become increasingly popular. The first proposal of this type (Stein, 1945, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 16, 243-258) used all of the data to estimate the mean difference but only the first stage data to estimate the variance. Stein's procedure is not commonly used because many people perceive it as ignoring relevant data. This is especially problematic when the first stage sample size is small, as would be the case if the anticipated total sample size were small. A more naive approach uses in the denominator of the final test statistic the variance estimate based on all of the data. Applying the Helmert transformation, we show why this naive approach underestimates the true variance and how to construct an unbiased estimate that uses all of the data. We prove that the type I error rate of our procedure cannot exceed alpha.

Effect of a community intervention on patient delay and emergency medical service use in acute coronary heart disease: The Rapid Early Action for Coronary Treatment (REACT) Trial.

CONTEXT: Delayed access to medical care in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is common and increases myocardial damage and mortality. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a community intervention to reduce patient delay from symptom onset to hospital presentation and increase emergency medical service (EMS) use. DESIGN AND SETTING: The Rapid Early Action for Coronary Treatment Trial, a randomized trial conducted from 1995 to 1997 in 20 US cities (10 matched pairs; population range, 55,777-238,912) in 10 states. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 59,944 adults aged 30 years or older presenting to hospital emergency departments (EDs) with chest pain, of whom 20,364 met the primary population criteria of suspected acute coronary heart disease on admission and were discharged with a coronary heart disease-related diagnosis. INTERVENTION: One city in each pair was randomly assigned to an 18-month intervention that targeted mass media, community organizations, and professional, public, and patient education to increase appropriate patient actions for AMI symptoms (primary population, n=10,563). The other city in each pair was randomly assigned to reference status (primary population, n=9801). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Time from symptom onset to ED arrival and EMS use, compared between intervention and reference city pairs. RESULTS: General population surveys provided evidence of increased public awareness and knowledge of program messages. Patient delay from symptom onset to hospital arrival at baseline (median, 140 minutes) was identical in the intervention and reference communities. Delay time decreased in intervention communities by -4.7% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], -8.6% to -0.6%), but the change did not differ significantly from that observed in reference communities (-6. 8% per year; 95% CI, -14.5% to 1.6%; P=.54). EMS use by the primary study population increased significantly in intervention communities compared with reference communities, with a net effect of 20% (95% CI, 7%-34%; P<.005). Total numbers of ED presentations for chest pain and patients with chest pain discharged from the ED, as well as EMS use among patients with chest pain released from the ED, did not change significantly. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, despite an 18-month intervention, time from symptom onset to hospital arrival for patients with chest pain did not change differentially between groups, although increased appropriate EMS use occurred in intervention communities. New strategies are needed if delay time from symptom onset to hospital presentation is to be decreased further in patients with suspected AMI. JAMA. 2000;284:60-67

Practical guidelines for multiplicity adjustment in clinical trials.

Multiplicity in clinical trials may appear under several different guises: multiple endpoints, multiple treatment arm comparisons, and multiple looks at the data during interim monitoring, to name a few. It is well recognized by statisticians and nonstatisticians alike that multiplicity inflates the type I error rate of the experiment, and this has prompted the development of many multiple comparison adjustment procedures. What has remained one of the thornier and more controversial points of contention among trialists today is the philosophy surrounding the need for multiplicity adjustment in clinical trials. This paper provides guidelines on how to deal with this complex issue in a practical manner. Through a series of scenarios and examples, we illustrate the fundamental issues surrounding the concept of multiplicity and point to some key questions one should ask when deliberating on the necessity and extent of adjustment for multiple comparisons. Control Clin Trials 2000;21:527-539

Statistical methods for monitoring clinical trials.

Clinical trials are monitored to determine whether a treatment is safe and effective. If it becomes clear that treatment is superior to control, ethical considerations compel us to stop the study and make the treatment available to control patients. On the other hand, if it becomes clear that the treatment will not be shown superior to control, we would like to stop the study and save valuable resources for more promising agents. But how much evidence is enough to declare benefit, and what criteria do we use to stop for lack of benefit? This article reviews monitoring procedures designed to answer these two questions. The B-value approach of Lan and Wittes (1) and Lan and Zucker (2) is used to unify the monitoring of many different kinds of trials, including those with continuous, dichotomous, or survival outcomes.

The DASH Diet, Sodium Intake and Blood Pressure Trial (DASH-sodium): rationale and design. DASH-Sodium Collaborative Research Group.

The DASH Diet, Sodium Intake and Blood Pressure Trial (DASH-Sodium) is a multicenter, randomized trial comparing the effects of 3 levels of sodium intake and 2 dietary patterns on blood pressure among adults with higher than optimal blood pressure or with stage 1 hypertension (120-159/80-95 mm Hg). The 2 dietary patterns are a control diet typical of what many Americans eat, and the DASH diet, which, by comparison, emphasizes fruits, vegetables, and low-fat dairy foods, includes whole grains, poultry, fish, and nuts, and is reduced in fats, red meat, sweets, and sugar-containing beverages. The 3 sodium levels are defined as higher (typical of current US consumption), intermediate (reflecting the upper limit of current US recommendations), and lower (reflecting potentially optimal levels). Participants are randomly assigned to 1 of the 2 dietary patterns using a parallel group design and are fed each of the 3 sodium levels using a randomized crossover design. The study provides participants with all of their food during a 2-week run-in feeding period and three 30-day intervention feeding periods. Participants attend the clinic for 1 meal per day, 5 days per week, and take home food for other meals. Weight is monitored and individual energy intake adjusted to maintain baseline weight. The primary outcome is systolic blood pressure measured at the end of each intervention feeding period. Systolic blood pressure is compared across the 3 sodium levels within each diet and across the 2 diets within each sodium level. If effects previously observed in clinical trials are additive, sodium reduction and the DASH diet together may lower blood pressure to an extent not as yet demonstrated for nonpharmacologic treatment. The DASH-Sodium results will have important implications for the prevention and treatment of high blood pressure.

A multiple comparison procedure for three- and four-armed controlled clinical trials.

Multi-armed controlled trials are becoming increasingly popular. With them comes the issue of how to deal with the possibility of multiple Type I errors. This paper recommends a simple and appealing method for three- and four-armed trials in which one is a control. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the United States.

Valid inference in random effects meta-analysis.

The standard approach to inference for random effects meta-analysis relies on approximating the null distribution of a test statistic by a standard normal distribution. This approximation is asymptotic on k, the number of studies, and can be substantially in error in medical meta-analyses, which often have only a few studies. This paper proposes permutation and ad hoc methods for testing with the random effects model. Under the group permutation method, we randomly switch the treatment and control group labels in each trial. This idea is similar to using a permutation distribution for a community intervention trial where communities are randomized in pairs. The permutation method theoretically controls the type I error rate for typical meta-analyses scenarios. We also suggest two ad hoc procedures. Our first suggestion is to use a t-reference distribution with k-1 degrees of freedom rather than a standard normal distribution for the usual random effects test statistic. We also investigate the use of a simple t-statistic on the reported treatment effects.

A simple permutation-type method for testing circular uniformity with correlated angular measurements.

A simple method is provided for testing uniformity on the circle that allows dependence among repeated angular measurements on the same subject. Our null hypothesis is that the distribution of repeated angles is unaffected by rotation. This null can be evaluated with any test of uniformity by using a null reference distribution obtained by simulation, where each subject's vector of angles is rotated by a random amount. A new weighted version of the univariate Rayleigh test of circular uniformity is proposed.

A multivariate test of interaction for use in clinical trials.

An important issue in clinical trials is whether the effect of treatment is essentially homogeneous as a function of baseline covariates. Covariates that have the potential for an interaction with treatment may be suspected on the basis of treatment mechanism or may be known risk factors, as it is often thought that the sickest patients may benefit most from treatment. If disease severity is more accurately determined by a collection of baseline covariates rather than a single risk factor, methods that examine each covariate in turn for interaction may be inadequate. We propose a procedure whereby treatment interaction is examined along a single severity index that is a linear combination of baseline covariates. Formally, we derive a likelihood ratio test based on the null beta0 = beta1 versus the alternative abeta0 = beta1, where X'beta(k) (k = 0, 1) corresponds to the severity index in arm k and X is a vector of baseline covariates. While our explicit test requires a Gaussian response, it can be readily implemented whenever the estimates of beta0,beta1 are approximately multivariate normal. For example, it is appropriate for large clinical trials where beta(k) is based on a logisitic or Cox regression of response on X.

Statistical design of REACT (Rapid Early Action for Coronary Treatment), a multisite community trial with continual data collection.

Unusual problems in statistical design were faced by Rapid Early Action for Coronary Treatment (REACT), a multisite trial testing a community intervention to reduce the delay between onset of symptoms of acute myocardial infarction (MI) and patients' arrival at a hospital emergency department. In 20 pair-matched U.S. communities, hospital staff members recorded delay time throughout a 4-month baseline period and the subsequent 18-month intervention period, during which one randomly selected community of each pair received a campaign of public and professional education. To exploit the continual nature of its data-collection protocol, REACT estimated the trend of delay time separately in each community by linear regression, adjusting for age, sex, and history of MI, and compared the ten adjusted slopes from intervention communities with those from control communities by a paired t-test. Power calculations based on the analytical model showed that with K=600-800 cases per community, REACT would have 80% power to demonstrate a differential reduction of 30 min in mean delay time between intervention and control communities, as well as effects on a variety of secondary outcomes. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that the number of communities was optimal within constraints of funding and that the detectable effect depended weakly on the effectiveness of matching but strongly on K, helping the investigators set operational priorities. The methodologic strategy developed for REACT should prove useful in the design of similar trials in the future.

Rapid early action for coronary treatment: rationale, design, and baseline characteristics. REACT Research Group.

OBJECTIVE: Early reperfusion for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) can reduce morbidity and mortality, yet there is often delay in accessing medical care after symptom onset. This report describes the design and baseline characteristics of the Rapid Early Action for Coronary Treatment (REACT) community trial, which is testing community intervention to reduce delay. METHODS: Twenty U.S. communities were pair-matched and randomly assigned within pairs to intervention or comparison. Four months of baseline data collection was followed by an 18-month intervention of community organization and public, patient, and health professional education. Primary cases were community residents seen in the ED with chest pain, admitted with suspected acute cardiac ischemia, and discharged with a diagnosis related to coronary heart disease. The primary outcome was delay time from symptom onset to ED arrival. Secondary outcomes included delay time in patients with MI/unstable angina, hospital case-fatality rate and length of stay, receipt of reperfusion, and ED/emergency medical services utilization. Impact on public and patient knowledge, attitudes, and intentions was measured by telephone interviews. Characteristics of communities and cases and comparability of paired communities at baseline were assessed. RESULTS: Baseline cases are 46% female, 14% minorities, and 73% aged > or =55 years, and paired communities have similar demographics characteristics. Median delay time (available for 72% of cases) is 2.3 hours and does not vary between treatment conditions (p > 0.86). CONCLUSIONS: REACT communities approximate the demographic distribution of the United States and there is baseline comparability between the intervention and comparison groups. The REACT trial will provide valuable information for community educational programs to reduce patient delay for AMI symptoms.

Reproducibility of mental stress-induced myocardial ischemia in the Psychophysiological Investigations of Myocardial Ischemia (PIMI).

OBJECTIVE: Many patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) develop myocardial ischemia in response to mental stress. This has been documented both in the natural environment and in the laboratory. However, the reproducibility of laboratory mental stress-induced ischemia has not been investigated. METHOD: Sixty patients with documented CAD and a positive exercise stress test discontinued cardiac medications and underwent two standardized mental stress tests (a timed Stroop Color-Word test and a public speaking task) in a nuclear cardiology laboratory (Visit 1), and repeated this procedure between 2 and 8 weeks later (Visit 2). Measurements of cardiovascular function and neurohormonal responses were obtained throughout testing, and mood state was assessed before and after testing. RESULTS: Sixty-eight percent of the 56 patients with detailed radionuclide data from both visits had consistent responses (ie, ischemia either present during both sessions or absent during both) to the Stroop task (kappa = .29, p = .03), 61% had consistent responses to the speech task (kappa = .20, p = .12), and 60% had consistent responses when ischemia was considered present if it occurred during either the Stroop test, the speech task, or both, and absent if it did not occur during either task (kappa = .22, p = .07). Hemodynamic and neuroendocrine responses to the tests were moderately reproducible. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that two popular laboratory tests for mental stress-induced myocardial ischemia are modestly reproducible. The relatively low reproducibility is probably influenced by uncertainties in detecting relatively small changes in wall motion, habituation of the patient to repeated exposure to psychological stressors, and physiological differences in threshold for ischemia on different days of testing.

On the distribution of the unpaired t-statistic with paired data.

I derive the exact distribution of the unpaired t-statistic computed when the data actually come from a paired design. I use this to prove a result Diehr et al. obtained by simulation, namely that the type I error rate of this procedure is no greater than alpha regardless of the sample size. I provide a formula to use in computation of power and type I error rate.

Designed extension of studies based on conditional power.

We propose a flexible method of extending a study based on conditional power. The possibility for extension when the p value at the planned end is small but not statistically significant is built in to the design of the study. The significance of the treatment difference at the planned end is used to determine the number of additional observations needed and the critical value necessary for use after accruing those additional observations. It may therefore be thought of as a two-stage procedure. Even though the observed treatment difference at stage 1 is used to make decisions, the Type I error rate is protected.

Rationale and design of the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension trial (DASH). A multicenter controlled-feeding study of dietary patterns to lower blood pressure.

Epidemiologic studies have found that dietary patterns characterized by high intakes of certain minerals and fiber are associated with low blood pressure. Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) is a multicenter, randomized, controlled-feeding trial designed to test the effects on blood pressure of two such dietary patterns consumed for 8 weeks. The two experimental diets will be compared with each other and with a control dietary pattern that is relatively low in potassium, magnesium, calcium, and fiber, and has a fat and protein profile mirroring current consumption. The first experimental diet, arguably termed "ideal," is high in fruits, vegetables, whole cereal products, low-fat dairy products, fish, chicken, and lean meats designed to be low in saturated fat and cholesterol; moderately high in protein; and high in minerals and fiber. The second experimental diet tests the effect of fruits and vegetables alone. Its potassium, magnesium, and dietary fiber content will be at the same high levels as the ideal dietary pattern, while its fat, protein, and calcium content will resemble that of the control dietary pattern. The study population will consist of 456 healthy men and women, aged 22 years or older, with systolic blood pressure less than 160 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure 80 to 95 mm Hg. African-American and other minority groups will comprise 67% of the population. Participants will eat one of the three dietary patterns. The DASH trial has unique features. First, dietary patterns rather than single nutrients are being tested. Second, all food for the experimental diets is provided to the participants using a standardized multicenter protocol. Because the dietary patterns are constructed with commonly consumed food items, the results, if positive, may be conveniently implemented in dietary recommendations to the general public.

Morphology of the "athlete's heart" assessed by echocardiography in 947 elite athletes representing 27 sports.

In the present study, we used echocardiography to investigate the morphologic adaptations of the heart to athletic training in 947 elite athletes representing 27 sports who achieved national or international levels of competition. Cardiac morphology was compared for these sports, using multivariate statistical models. Left ventricular (LV) diastolic cavity dimension above normal (> 54 mm, ranging up to 66 mm) was identified in 362 (38%) of the 947 athletes. LV wall thickness above normal (> 12 mm, ranging up to 16 mm) was identified in only 16 (1.7%) of the athletes. Athletes training in the sports examined showed considerable differences with regard to cardiac dimensions. Endurance cyclists, rowers, and swimmers had the largest LV diastolic cavity dimensions and wall thickness. Athletes training in sports such as track sprinting, field weight events, and diving were at the lower end of the spectrum of cardiac adaptations to athletic training. Athletes training in sports associated with larger LV diastolic cavity dimensions also had higher values for wall thickness. Athletes training in isometric sports, such as weightlifting and wrestling, had high values for wall thickness relative to cavity dimension, but their absolute wall thickness remained within normal limits. Analysis of gender-related differences in cardiac dimensions showed that female athletes had smaller LV diastolic cavity dimension (average 2 mm) and smaller wall thickness (average 0.9 mm) than males of the same age and body size who were training in the same sport.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)