Cost-effectiveness analysis of empagliflozin treatment in people with Type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial.

AIM: In the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial, empagliflozin therapy reduced cardiovascular death by 38% compared with placebo when added to standard of care. Using the trial results, we created a discrete-event simulation model to assess lifetime health economic outcomes in people with Type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Time-dependent survival regression analysis was performed on data from EMPA-REG OUTCOME for 10 cardiovascular and renal events (e.g. stroke, heart failure hospitalization, macroalbuminuria, cardiovascular mortality) to capture event rates over time, and interaction between events. Model performance was assessed by comparing predicted and observed outcomes at 3 years. Costs in the United Kingdom (UK) and health utilities were obtained from published literature. Outcomes included cumulative event rates, life-years, costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS: The model predicted an 18% relative increase (by 2.1 life-years) in survival for empagliflozin (14.0 life-years) vs. standard of care (11.9 life-years), attributable to direct treatment effect on cardiovascular mortality, and to indirect effect via reductions in other events. Participants treated with empagliflozin may experience improved quality of life (1.0 QALY) and higher costs (£3737/participant), yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £4083/QALY. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these results to changes in input parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Based on extrapolation of EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial data using a participant-level simulation model, empagliflozin in addition to standard of care is projected to be highly cost-effective using UK healthcare costs. The impact in other countries will vary due to differences in drug pricing and accrual of other costs. (Clinical Trial Registry No: NCT01131676).

Impact of peginterferon beta-1a and disease factors on quality of life in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The Phase III ADVANCE study has shown clinical benefits for peginterferon beta-1a 125 µg dosed every 2 weeks versus placebo at 1 year in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS). This study assessed the impact of peginterferon beta-1a and disease factors on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) using data from ADVANCE. METHODS: HRQoL was assessed at baseline and 12, 24, and 48 weeks using the 29-item Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29) and other generic HRQoL measures. Changes in scores from baseline within each group and differences in mean change from baseline between groups were evaluated. Post-hoc mixed-effects repeated measures analyses were performed to assess the impact of confirmed disability progression and relapses, and the interactions of treatment and these MS events on HRQoL. Predictors with p≥0.1 were excluded from the final models, unless they were clinically meaningful. RESULTS: Relapses and confirmed disability progression were major drivers of HRQoL. When comparing week 48 to baseline, in placebo-treated patients (n=500), confirmed disability progression was associated with a 6.0-point worsening (p<0.0001) of MSIS-29 physical scores, relative to a 1.9-point worsening (p=0.044) with peginterferon beta-1a every 2 weeks (n=512). Such findings were observed consistently with other generic HRQoL measures. Additionally, having a recent relapse (≤29 days before the HRQoL assessment) was associated with a 10.0-point worsening (p<0.0001) of MSIS-29 psychological scores in placebo-treated patients, compared with a 3.5-point (p=0.031) worsening with peginterferon beta-1a every 2 weeks. CONCLUSION: Treatment with peginterferon beta-1a could help to improve or maintain HRQoL in addition to clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00906399.

Mean overall survival gain with aflibercept plus FOLFIRI vs placebo plus FOLFIRI in patients with previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Mean survival in cancer trials can be estimated with statistical techniques to extrapolate study survival curves. This methodology was applied to data from the VELOUR trial, where use of the novel biologic aflibercept (ziv-aflibercept in the United States) in combination with fluorouracil+leucovorin+irinotecan (FOLFIRI), had significantly increased median overall survival (OS) by 1.44 months, vs placebo plus FOLFIRI in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) resistant to, or that had progressed following, an oxaliplatin-containing regimen. METHODS: Parametric survival analyses were used to identify distributions with the best fit to the empirical VELOUR data. Mean OS for the two treatment groups (and pre-defined subgroups) was calculated from the fitted curves over a 15-year survival period. RESULTS: Overall, the log-logistic distribution was the best-fitting for both treatment arms and, with it, the estimated difference in mean OS over 15 years between aflibercept+FOLFIRI and placebo+FOLFIRI was 4.7 months. In addition, the survival advantage with aflibercept was at least 3 months for the ITT population, whichever distribution was used to extrapolate survival. CONCLUSION: Extrapolation of survival curves suggests the mean OS difference for aflibercept in the VELOUR trial is at least 3 months in the ITT population and selected subgroups.

Smoking, smoking cessation and smoking relapse patterns: a web-based survey of current and former smokers in the US.

AIM: The aim of this study was to characterise the natural course of smoking cessation behaviour in a web-based survey of current and former cigarette smokers (CS and FS) in the United States. METHODS: A web-based survey of CS and FS was conducted in April 2009; demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and smoking history (including the number of lifetime and length of latest quit attempts, aids used and time to relapse) were collated. The surveyed cohort was selected from prescreened CS and FS panellists and matched for age, race and education, to be representative of the US population. Descriptive statistics and time-to-event analyses using Kaplan-Meier curves were applied in the analysis of this report. RESULTS: The final cohort comprised 512 CS and 566 FS (n = 1078). A larger proportion of FS than CS reported a longest smoke-free period of > 1 year (78.8% vs. 22.4%, respectively). As a greater variety of smoking cessation products became available over time, the proportion of unassisted quit attempts decreased from 76.1% prior to 1983 to 43.9% after 2006 for CS and from 79.3% to 50.3% for FS. The cumulative proportion of subjects relapsing was 31.3% by 1 week and 79.3% by 6 months. The estimated median time to next quit attempt was approximately 360 days. CONCLUSIONS: These data confirm that relapse is common and that as the variety of cessation modalities increase, the proportion of unassisted quit attempts decreases. Self-help or cold-turkey methods still provide significant alternatives even when pharmacotherapy is available. This study provides data related to the smoking history and smoking cessation patterns of a large, nationally representative sample of CS and FS.