Plant invasion risk inside and outside protected areas: Propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors definitively matter.

Invasive alien species are among the main global drivers of biodiversity loss posing major challenges to nature conservation and to managers of protected areas. The present study applied a methodological framework that combined invasive Species Distribution Models, based on propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors for 14 invasive alien plants of Union concern in Italy, with the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation analysis aiming to map, evaluate and analyse the risk of plant invasions across the country, inside and outside the network of protected areas. Using a hierarchical invasive Species Distribution Model, we explored the combined effect of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on shaping invasive alien plant occurrence across three biogeographic regions (Alpine, Continental, and Mediterranean) and realms (terrestrial and aquatic) in Italy. We disentangled the role of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on invasive alien plant distribution and projected invasion risk maps. We compared the risk posed by invasive alien plants inside and outside protected areas. Invasive alien plant distribution varied across biogeographic regions and realms and unevenly threatens protected areas. As an alien's occurrence and risk on a national scale are linked with abiotic factors followed by propagule pressure, their local distribution in protected areas is shaped by propagule pressure and biotic filters. The proposed modelling framework for the assessment of the risk posed by invasive alien plants across spatial scales and under different protection regimes represents an attempt to fill the gap between theory and practice in conservation planning helping to identify scale, site, and species-specific priorities of management, monitoring and control actions. Based on solid theory and on free geographic information, it has great potential for application to wider networks of protected areas in the world and to any invasive alien plant, aiding improved management strategies claimed by the environmental legislation and national and global strategies.

Red-listed plants are contracting their elevational range faster than common plants in the European Alps.

Mountain ecosystems are exposed to multiple anthropogenic pressures that are reshaping the distribution of plant populations. Range dynamics of mountain plants exhibit large variability with species expanding, shifting, or shrinking their elevational range. Using a dataset of more than 1 million records of common and red-listed native and alien plants, we could reconstruct range dynamics of 1,479 species of the European Alps over the last 30 y. Red-listed species were not able to track climate warming at the leading edge of their distribution, and further experienced a strong erosion of rear margins, resulting in an overall rapid range contraction. Common natives also contracted their range, albeit less drastically, through faster upslope shift at the rear than at the leading edge. By contrast, aliens quickly expanded upslope by moving their leading edge at macroclimate change speed, while keeping their rear margins almost still. Most red-listed natives and the large majority of aliens were warm-adapted, but only aliens showed high competitive abilities to thrive under high-resource and disturbed environments. Rapid upward shifts of the rear edge of natives were probably driven by multiple environmental pressures including climate change as well as land-use change and intensification. The high environmental pressure that populations encounter in the lowlands might constrain the ability of expanding species to shift their range into more natural areas at higher elevations. As red-listed natives and aliens mostly co-occurred in the lowlands, where human pressures are at their highest, conservation should prioritize low-elevation areas of the European Alps.

Topography of the Dolomites modulates range dynamics of narrow endemic plants under climate change.

Climate change is expected to threaten endemic plants in the Alps. In this context, the factors that may modulate species responses are rarely investigated at a local scale. We analyzed eight alpine narrow endemics of the Dolomites (southeastern Alps) under different predicted climate change scenarios at fine spatial resolutions. We tested possible differences in elevation, topographic heterogeneity and velocity of climate change among areas of gained, lost, or stable climatic habitat. The negative impact of climate change ranged from moderate to severe, depending on scenario and species. Generally, range loss occurred at the lowest elevations, while gained and stable areas were located at highest elevations. For six of the species, climate change velocity had higher values in stable and gained areas than in lost ones. Our findings support the role of topographic heterogeneity in maintaining climatic microrefugia, however, the peculiar topography of the Dolomites, characterized by high altitude plateaus, resulted in high climate change velocity in areas of projected future climatic suitability. Our study supports the usefulness of multiple predictors of spatio-temporal range dynamics for regional climate-adapted management and eventual assisted colonization planning to not overlook or overestimate the potential impact of climate change locally.

Consistent population declines but idiosyncratic range shifts in Alpine orchids under global change.

Mountains are plant biodiversity hotspots considered particularly vulnerable to multiple environmental changes. Here, we quantify population changes and range-shift dynamics along elevational gradients over the last three decades for c. two-thirds of the orchid species of the European Alps. Local extinctions were more likely for small populations, after habitat alteration, and predominated at the rear edge of species' ranges. Except for the most thermophilic species and wetland specialists, population density decreased over time. Declines were more pronounced for rear-edge populations, possibly due to multiple pressures such as climate warming, habitat alteration, and mismatched ecological interactions. Besides these demographic trends, different species exhibited idiosyncratic range shifts with more than 50% of the species lagging behind climate warming. Our study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring of populations and range distributions at fine spatial resolution to be able to fully understand the consequences of global change for orchids.

Impact of invasive alien plants on native plant communities and Natura 2000 habitats: State of the art, gap analysis and perspectives in Italy.

Invasive alien plants are a major threat to biodiversity and they contribute to the unfavourable conservation status of habitats of interest to the European Community. In order to favour implementation of European Union Regulation no. 1143/2014 on invasive alien species, the Italian Society of Vegetation Science carried out a large survey led by a task force of 49 contributors with expertise in vegetation across all the Italian administrative regions. The survey summed up the knowledge on impact mechanisms of invasive alien plants in Italy and their outcomes on plant communities and the EU habitats of Community Interest, in accordance with Directive no. 92/43/EEC. The survey covered 241 alien plant species reported as having deleterious ecological impacts. The data collected illustrate the current state of the art, highlight the main gaps in knowledge, and suggest topics to be further investigated. In particular, the survey underlined competition as being the main mechanism of ecological impact on plant communities and Natura 2000 habitats. Of the 241 species, only Ailanthus altissima was found to exert an ecological impact on plant communities and Natura 2000 habitats in all Italian regions; while a further 20 species impact up to ten out of the 20 Italian administrative regions. Our data indicate that 84 out of 132 Natura 2000 Habitats (64%) are subjected to some degree of impact by invasive alien plants. Freshwater habitats and natural and semi-natural grassland formations were impacted by the highest number of alien species, followed by coastal sand dunes and inland dunes, and forests. Although not exhaustive, this research is the first example of nationwide evaluation of the ecological impacts of invasive alien plants on plant communities and Natura 2000 Habitats.

Fruit availability for migratory birds: a GIS approach.

Bird migration is a widely studied phenomenon, however many factors that influence migratory flows remain unknown or poorly understood. Food availability en route is particularly important for many species and can affect their migration success, pattern and timing but this relationship has not been addressed at a wide scale due to the lack of spatial models of food availability on the terrain. This work presents a GIS-database approach that combines spatial and non-spatial ecological information in order to map fruit availability from vegetation over time in the SE Alps, an important node of European migratory routes. We created a unique database that contains information on the presence and periods of fructification of 52 wild plants carrying berries and a series of original cartographic themes. The presence and coverage of the plant species was modelled with the geo-statistical method of the Gaussian Kernel, which was validated against the ground truth of field sampling data with a correct classification power above 80% in most cases. The highest fruit availability in the study area during September and October co-occurs with the peak of captures of berry eating birds. The maps created and distributed along this work can be useful to address more detailed studies about stopover sites as well as the spatial ecology of other fruit eating animals.

Genetic diversity in widespread species is not congruent with species richness in alpine plant communities.

The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims at the conservation of all three levels of biodiversity, that is, ecosystems, species and genes. Genetic diversity represents evolutionary potential and is important for ecosystem functioning. Unfortunately, genetic diversity in natural populations is hardly considered in conservation strategies because it is difficult to measure and has been hypothesised to co-vary with species richness. This means that species richness is taken as a surrogate of genetic diversity in conservation planning, though their relationship has not been properly evaluated. We tested whether the genetic and species levels of biodiversity co-vary, using a large-scale and multi-species approach. We chose the high-mountain flora of the Alps and the Carpathians as study systems and demonstrate that species richness and genetic diversity are not correlated. Species richness thus cannot act as a surrogate for genetic diversity. Our results have important consequences for implementing the CBD when designing conservation strategies.