The urology work force in Ontario for the 21st century: feast or famine?

OBJECTIVE: To address the issues of work-force planning and modelling in the 21st century for the specialty of urology in the Province of Ontario. DESIGN: Data (from 1991 to 1995) regarding urology physician resources were gathered from Health Canada, the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada, the Ontario Physician Human Resources Data Centre, the Canadian Post-M.D. Education Registry, the System for Health Area Resource Planning (SHARP) database, the Canadian Institute for Health Information and the National Physician Database. Specifically, the age and gender breakdown of currently active Ontario urologists, measures of urologist clinical activity (from Ontario Hospital Insurance Plan billings and questionnaires), inputs into and exits from the active urologist population were gathered, and estimates of future needs for urologist services, based on current population and demographic models, were made. A model to predict the balance between future needs for urology services and future supply of urologists was then created and validated against data drawn from the SHARP database. RESULTS: The model revealed that there will be a significant shortage of urologists in Ontario in the immediate and long-term future; by the year 2010 there will be a shortfall of 101 urologists in Ontario, or 51% of the total needed. CONCLUSIONS: Enlarging the urology training programs in Ontario would help to minimize the estimated shortfall. Systematic modelling of physician work-force needs for the future is necessary for the optimal allocation of health care resources. The methodology of the urology work-force model is generalizable to physician work-force planning for other specialty groups on a provincial or national basis.

Canadian human resource needs in vascular surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To outline the distribution of vascular surgeons in Canada and to determine the present and future human resource needs in vascular surgery practice in Canada. DESIGN: Voluntary questionnaires sent to all members of the Canadian Society for Vascular Surgery (CSVS), the administrators of hospitals in Canada with more than 100 beds, and interrogation of the membership database of the CSVS. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The perceived present and future needs for full-time and part-time vascular surgeons, determined by a variety of methods. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred and forty active members of the CSVS and administrators of 120 hospitals. MAIN RESULTS: From the CSVS members 62 responses were received from those residing in Canada, revealing 47 full-time vascular (more than 75% of the practice) surgeons working with 0 to 5 colleagues (mean 1.8 [SD 1.3]). Fifteen responding surgeons combined the practice of vascular surgery with another specialty. Perceived immediate needs were 24 surgeons, with 42 required in 4.8 (1.8) years. Of 120 hospitals offering vascular surgery services, 90 stated that they met the needs of their community; however, additional immediate manpower requirements totalled 27 surgeons. Hospital administrators predicted a need of 55 additional vascular surgeons in a mean of 5.5 (4.6) years. Over 85% of hospitals stated that they had the resources to support the currently practising surgeons and their immediately required additions. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction of the need for additional vascular surgeons should be based on an estimated retirement age of 65 years, with an adjustment for the increasing percentage of the Canadian population reaching the age of 60 years. All methodologies used in this study predict the need for additional human resources in vascular surgery. The need for continued training of new vascular surgeons is apparent, but the optimal number of trainees per year is less clear.

Preferences of program directors for evaluation of candidates for postgraduate training.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the preferences of program directors for various grading systems and other criteria in selecting students for residency training positions through the Canadian Resident Matching Service (CaRMS). DESIGN: Questionnaire survey. PARTICIPANTS: All 110 directors of residency training programs in Ontario. SETTING: Ontario medical schools. OUTCOME MEASURES: Weighting of importance of different screening tools (e.g., grading systems, personal interview, dean's letter) used during undergraduate training. RESULTS: Of the 110 directors 96 (87%) responded. Of the 92 who rated the various grading practices 35 (38%) preferred a numeric grading system, 26 (28%) a letter grading system, 23 (25%) an honours/pass/fail system and 8 (9%) a pass/fail system. Most of the respondents from each school favoured a grading system that was more discriminating than the one used at their location. The personal interview was regarded as the most important screening tool by 80 (83%) of the respondents; the dean's letter was considered to be very useful by only 16 (17%). CONCLUSIONS: More value was placed by program directors on a numeric or other more discriminating grading system than on the pass/fail system. Although the grading system provides only one type of screening mechanism it raises the question of whether there should be a policy for uniform grading practices for all Canadian students.

Vascular injury and repair associated with retroperitoneal lymphadenectomy for nonseminomatous germinal cell tumours of the testis.

Metastatic disease adjacent to major vascular structures in the retroperitoneum sometimes necessitates planned removal of portions of these vessels, or the vessels may inadvertently be injured when retroperitoneal lymphadenectomy is performed. In 78 patients who underwent retroperitoneal lymphadenectomy, 17 (22%) required vascular repair intraoperatively. The vena cava was most frequently involved (eight cases) followed by inadvertent injury to the renal arteries (five cases) or the infrarenal aorta (three cases). Resection of the infrarenal aorta was planned in two cases without postoperative complication. In six cases a resection of either the whole inferior vena cava or a portion of it was needed to remove all of the tumour. There were nine cases of inadvertent injury to the aorta, vena cava or a renal artery. The outcome after arterial repair was satisfactory with the exception of the inadvertent renal artery injuries, which required nephrectomy in three cases. Leg swelling was not a long-term sequela of either caval repair or resection.

End-to-end versus end-to-side proximal anastomosis in aortobifemoral bypass surgery: does it matter?

The proximal anastomosis is still a controversial issue in vascular surgery. To compare end-to-end (EE) and end-to-side (ES) proximal anastomoses, the authors undertook a prospective study with 3 years' follow-up involving 120 patients, all of whom had aortobifemoral bypass. Fifty-one (42.5%) patients received the EE and 69 (57.5%) the ES anastomosis. The indications for surgery were abdominal aortic aneurysm (EE 51%, ES 0%; p less than 0.05), claudication (EE 33.3%, ES 53.6%; p less than 0.05) and critical ischemia (EE 15.7%, ES 46.4%; p less than 0.05). Patients in the EE group were older (mean age: EE 66.1 +/- 2.8 years, ES 60.9 +/- 1.1 years; p less than 0.05) and had more ischemic heart disease (EE 39.2%, ES 27.5%; p less than 0.05). Postoperative mean increases in transcutaneous oximetry (EE 15.5 +/- 3.9 mm Hg, ES 12.6 +/- 2.3 mm Hg) and the ankle-brachial pressure index (EE 0.34 +/- 0.05, ES 0.30 +/- 0.03) were not significantly different in the two groups. The operative death rate was higher for the EE group (EE 11.8%, ES 1.4%; p less than 0.05). Early thrombosis occurred in six patients, two in the EE group and four in the ES group. Computed tomography, done 1 year postoperatively in 95 patients, revealed two small (less than 3 cm) distal anastomotic dilatations, one in each group. At 3 years, cumulative survival and patency were similar in both groups. The authors conclude that the two anastomotic groups had very similar short- and long-term results, except for the operative death rate which was higher in the EE group.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

The role of central haemodynamic monitoring in abdominal aortic surgery. A prospective randomised study.

To test the hypothesis that central haemodynamic monitoring is not necessary in all patients undergoing abdominal aortic surgery, a prospective randomised study in 40 consecutive patients undergoing elective abdominal aortic surgery was carried out. Patients with unstable angina, recent myocardial infarction (less than or equal to 6 months), and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) less than 0.50 were excluded. Twenty-one patients had perioperative central haemodynamic monitoring while 19 patients had central venous pressure monitoring alone. Parameters studied included, perioperative haemodynamics and fluid balance, perioperative cardiac drug administration, operation time and clamp time, postoperative renal function, incidence of postoperative ventilation and line complications, duration of hospital and ICU stay, and 30 day postoperative outcome. Results obtained were compared with a high risk group of patients (LVEF less than 0.50) undergoing similar surgery. Statistical analysis failed to show any difference in outcome for any variable measured in either low risk group. All serious postoperative cardiac complications occurred in patients with LVEF less than 0.50 (P less than 0.0001). These data suggest that patients with LVEF greater than or equal to 0.50 are at low risk of developing postoperative cardiac complications and can be successfully managed perioperatively without the added potential risks and costs of central haemodynamic monitoring.

Is tube repair of aortic aneurysm followed by aneurysmal change in the common iliac arteries?

To address the concern that tube repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm might be followed by aneurysmal change in the common iliac arteries, 23 patients who had undergone the operation were re-examined 3 to 5 years later. Although 9 had had minimal ectasia of these arteries preoperatively, in none of the 23 was there symptomatic or radiologic evidence of aneurysmal change on follow-up. Measurements of the maximum intraluminal diameters were made by computed tomography; they indicated no significant differences between the preoperative and follow-up sizes of the common iliac arteries. The variation in time to follow-up also showed no significant correlation with change in artery diameter.

The influence of central haemodynamics on transcutaneous oxygen (TcpO2) measurements.

Transcutaneous oxygen measurements (TcpO2) have been shown to be an index of tissue perfusion and it has been suggested that the main haemodynamic variable influencing tissue perfusion is cardiac output, assuming that inspired oxygen remains constant. To investigate this hypothesis we studied 23 consecutive patients in order to identify if changes in cardiac output correlated with similar changes in TcpO2 measurements. No correlation was found to suggest that cardiac output was the main haemodynamic determinant of TcpO2 measurements.

The effect of femoral arteriography on the incidence of groin contamination and postoperative infections.

A prospective study is presented on the effects of preoperative femoral arteriography on bacterial contamination and postoperative wound complications from groin incisions. Forty-four femoral reconstructive procedures (88 groin incisions) for aortoiliac disease were performed. Positive cultures occurred in 43.2% of patients and in 30.7% of the 88 incisions. There was no correlation found between the site of arteriography and positive cultures (Spearman correlation coefficient, p greater than .10). No correlation was found between the presence of hematoma due to arteriography and subsequent positive groin culture (Spearman correlation coefficient, p greater than .10). A higher incidence of positive cultures did occur for patients who had a difficult arteriographic procedure (Fisher's exact test, p = .020) or whose reconstructive procedure was greater than four hours (Fischer's exact test, p = .047). Seven patients had postoperative groin wound complications (15.9%), including three lymph leaks (6.8%) and four confirmed or suspected infections (9%). There were no graft infections. No correlation was found between the site of arteriography and the site of wound complication (Spearman correlation coefficient, p greater than .10). Neither positive culture results nor difficult arteriography nor presence of hematoma were accurate predictors of postoperative wound complications. We conclude that transfemoral arteriography does not increase the risk of complications of arterial reconstruction involving a femoral anastomosis.

Failure of bicycle exercise electrocardiograms to predict major post-operative cardiac complications in patients undergoing abdominal aortic surgery.

To determine if exercise electrocardiograms (EECGs) are justified in routine pre-operative screening for cardiac disease, we performed a prospective study on 77 consecutive patients scheduled for infrarenal aortic reconstructive surgery. All patients had EECGs performed 1-12 days prior to elective surgery. In addition to routine clinical assessment of cardiac disease, all patients were allocated a Goldman risk score. Four patients developed major post-operative cardiac complications of whom one patient died. EECG was not a significant predictor of outcome, as 48.6% of all EECGs were inadequate due to non-completion of the exercise protocol. Significant pre-operative predictors of outcome were a history of angina (p less than 0.01), myocardial infarction (p less than 0.001), congestive cardiac failure (p less than 0.0001), or a Goldman score of greater than 14 (p less than 0.05). By multivariate analysis of the pre-operative risk factors a history of congestive cardiac failure was found to be the most significant independent predictor of post-operative cardiac complications.

Predictors of surgical outcome in patients undergoing aortobifemoral bypass reconstruction.

We report a prospective study with 2 years of follow-up including 105 consecutive symptomatic patients (58.1% claudication and 41.9% severe ischemia) undergoing aortobifemoral bypass surgery (ABF/BP). Proportional-hazards, stepwise regression, and life-table analyses were used to determine predictors of the following outcome criteria: graft patency, amputation, mortality, symptomatic recurrence, and palliation. The operative mortality was 5.7% and the 2-year cumulative mortality was 15.5%. Most deaths (61.5%) were cardiac-related. There were 3 predictors of mortality: the presence of more than 1 surgical risk factor (relative risk [RR] 6.2; p less than 0.001), advanced age (RR 2.9; p = 0.03) and the presence of ischemic heart disease (RR 1.5; p = 0.045). No patient required amputation. Early graft patency rate was 94.3% and the 2-year cumulative patency was 92.8%. The only predictor of graft failure was preoperative ankle/brachial index (ABI) of less than 0.4 (RR 6.1; p = 0.003). Early symptomatic relief was 98.1% and at 2 years it was 77.3%. There were 2 predictors of symptomatic recurrence: postoperative smoking (RR 2.4; p less than 0.001) and impaired runoff (RR 2.5; p = 0.017). Cumulative palliation was 87.6% at 1 month and 66.5% at 2 years postoperatively. There were 2 predictors of palliation: the presence of more than 1 surgical risk-factor (RR 1.8; p = 0.001) and postoperative transcutaneous oximetry (PtcO2) of less than 35 mmHg (RR 3.1; p = 0.04). We conclude that the best predictors of outcome in patients undergoing ABF/BP surgery were the number of preoperative risk factors, age, ischemic heart disease, ABI, PtcO2, postoperative smoking, and angiographic runoff.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Comparison between transcutaneous oximetry and ankle-brachial pressure ratio in predicting runoff and outcome in patients who undergo aortobifemoral bypass.

In a prospective study, transcutaneous oxygen tension and ankle-brachial pressure index (ABI) were measured pre- and postoperatively in 105 symptomatic patients who underwent aortobifemoral bypass to compare the ability of these two measurements to reflect the runoff status, determined by angiography, and to predict the outcome of surgery. Postoperatively, ABI better reflected the runoff status. The difference in mean ABI for good versus poor runoff was 0.17 (p less than 0.05). The difference in mean transcutaneous oxygen tension below the knee for the two runoff categories was relatively small (6.3 mm Hg, p less than 0.05). Post-minus preoperative increases in ABI reflected the runoff status better than increases in transcutaneous oxygen tension. For good runoff, the mean ABI increase was 0.25 and for poor runoff it was only 0.14 (p less than 0.05). Runoff and transcutaneous oxygen tension were found to be the best predictors of symptomatic recurrence. Poor runoff was associated with a relative risk of 2.5 (p = 0.017) and transcutaneous oxygen pressure of less than 40 mm Hg implied a relative risk of 2.3 (p = 0.029) for symptomatic recurrence. The most important predictor of graft failure was preoperative ABI. Transcutaneous oxygen tension and the ankle-brachial pressure index appear to be valuable noninvasive techniques for vascular assessment, offering different insights and different predictions for management and prognosis of peripheral vascular disease.

Percutaneous transluminal angioplasty without anticoagulation.

This paper presents the results of a retrospective study of 110 percutaneous transluminal angioplasties done over a period of two years on 110 consecutive patients. Anticoagulation or antiplatelet drugs were not used during or after percutaneous transluminal angioplasty. Life-table analysis was used to calculate success rates at one and three months following the procedure. Success rates were determined using three criteria: clinical improvement, pre- and post-percutaneous transluminal angioplasty Doppler studies, and radiographic appearance. Claudication was present in 87 (79%) patients and severe ischemia in 23 (21%) patients. Sixty-eight (62%) PCTAs were done in the iliac arteries, 35 (32%) in the femoral arteries, and 7 (6%) in the popliteal artery. The majority of patients (61%) had 50%-75% arterial stenosis and only 18% had complete occlusion. Percutaneous transluminal angioplasty in the iliac arteries had the best results with cumulative success rates of 90% and 85% at one and three months, respectively. Success rates in the femoral arteries were 83% and 79% and in the popliteal artery 71% and 57% at one and three months, respectively. None of our patients required amputation. Ten patients (9.1%) suffered the following complications within 30 days of percutaneous transluminal angioplasty: death (2), thrombosis (2), perforation (3), minor hematoma (2), and false aneurysm (1). In conclusion, we have shown that percutaneous transluminal angioplasty can be performed safely and effectively without the use of anticoagulation and its associated risks.

Effects of cigarette smoking on outcome of femoral popliteal bypass for limb salvage.

A retrospective 5-year follow-up study of 83 femoral-popliteal bypass operations for severe ischemia (79 patients) is presented. There were no operative deaths. At one month, cumulative patency rates (CPR) and limb salvage rates (LSR) were 86.8% and 96.4% respectively. At 5 years, CPR, LSR and cumulative survival were 50%, 79.4% and 71.6% respectively. Post-operative smoking habits were strongly related to CPR and LSR. Smoking more than 5 cigarettes per day adversely affected CPR's. At 5 years, CPR of non-smokers and smokers of up to 5 cigarettes per day (47 patients) was 67.7% and for smokers of more than 5 cigarettes per day (32 patients) it was 44.7% (P less than 0.045). Smoking more than 15 cigarettes per day had an adverse effect on LSR's. Smokers of more than 15 cigarettes per day (17 patients) had a 5-year LSR of 58.5% compared with 89% for non-smokers and smokers of up to 15 cigarettes per day (62 patients) (P = 0.009). For 20 limbs requiring thrombectomy LSR was 100% at 1 year and 57.5% at 5 years. CPR's and LSR's were not significantly influenced by pre-operative smoking, diabetes, run off or level of distal anastomosis relative to the knee joint. Based on zero operative mortality and 96.4% limb salvage at 1 year, it is concluded that an aggressive approach toward revascularization for limb salvage is well justified in most patients.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Selection of amputation level and prediction of healing using transcutaneous tissue oxygen tension (PtcO2).

Pre-operative measurement of transcutaneous tissue oxygen tension (PtcO2) by reflecting oxygen delivery at proposed amputation sites may allow accurate prediction of post-operative healing. Thirty-eight patients requiring amputation had PtcO2 measured with a Clark electrode on the foot, anteriorly and posteriorly below knee and above the knee while lying supine. PtcO2 greater than 24 mmHg was chosen to predict healing and indicated 13 above-knee (AK) and 25 below-knee (BK) amputations. Clinical criteria indicated 12 AK and 26 BK amputations. PtcO2 and clinical judgement differed on five occasions, a lower amputation was indicated by PtcO2 twice and by clinical selection three times (PtcO2 16 mmHg). Amputation was performed at the more distal level indicated (25 BK, 13 AK). Foot PtcO2 in both groups did not differ significantly, 4.08 +/- 2.00 mmHg (BK) and 3.9 +/- 1.29 mmHg (AK) (p greater than 0.5), nor did above knee PtcO2 (p greater than 0.3). Anterior below knee PtcO2 in both groups differed significantly, 34.92 +/- 10.84 mmHg (BK) and 9.5 +/- 5.60 mmHg (AK) (p less than 0.001). Likewise, posterior PtcO2, 39.64 +/- 6.85 mmHg (BK) and 14.1 +/- 4.43 mmHg (AK) (p less than 0.001). Amputation sites healed primarily within two weeks except the site with a pre-operative PtcO2 of 16 mmHg, where healing was delayed and occurred by second intention. These results indicate that PtcO2 is a valid predictor of primary healing following amputation.

The effect of postoperative smoking on femoropopliteal bypass grafts.

Effect of smoking habits on limb loss rates and cumulative patency rates of 136 arterial reconstructions performed for lower limb ischemia were analyzed in a five year follow-up retrospective study. Of 121 patients, 103 (85%) smoked before the operation and 43 of the smokers (42%) discontinued smoking postoperatively. Patients who continued to smoke more than 15 cigarettes per day (34 patients) increased the probability of losing their limb approximately five times at two years and three times at five years postoperatively, compared with nonsmokers and smokers of up to 15 cigarettes per day (87 patients) (p = 0.013). Cumulative patency rates of nonsmokers and smokers of up to five cigarettes per day (Group A, 66 patients) were not significantly influenced (p = 0.518) by preoperative symptoms (claudication versus limb salvage). However, for smokers of more than five cigarettes per day (Group B, 55 patients), at five years claudicants had a cumulative patency rate of 62.9% compared to 38.3% for limb salvage patients (p = 0.015). In group A at five years, autologous saphenous vein grafts had a cumulative patency rate of 74.2%, compared to 24% for prosthetic grafts (P = 0.013). In group B the CPR differences between autologous saphenous vein and prosthetic grafts were not significantly different (p = 0.394). Multiple interactions between smoking and variables like age, preoperative symptoms, and graft material demonstrate the complexity of the effects of smoking on cumulative patency rate and the need for sub-grouping and removal of confounding factors. In view of the adverse affects of continued smoking on postrevascularization prognosis, patients should be strongly advised to discontinue smoking.