ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: An accurate and simple risk prediction model that would facilitate earlier detection of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is not available at present. In this study, we compare different algorithms of risk prediction in order to select the best one for constructing a biomarker-based risk score, PancRISK. METHODS: Three hundred and seventy-nine patients with available measurements of three urine biomarkers, (LYVE1, REG1B and TFF1) using retrospectively collected samples, as well as creatinine and age, were randomly split into training and validation sets, following stratification into cases (PDAC) and controls (healthy patients). Several machine learning algorithms were used, and their performance characteristics were compared. The latter included AUC (area under ROC curve) and sensitivity at clinically relevant specificity. RESULTS: None of the algorithms significantly outperformed all others. A logistic regression model, the easiest to interpret, was incorporated into a PancRISK score and subsequently evaluated on the whole data set. The PancRISK performance could be even further improved when CA19-9, commonly used PDAC biomarker, is added to the model. CONCLUSION: PancRISK score enables easy interpretation of the biomarker panel data and is currently being tested to confirm that it can be used for stratification of patients at risk of developing pancreatic cancer completely non-invasively, using urine samples.
Subject(s)
Biomarkers, Tumor/urine , Carcinoma, Pancreatic Ductal/urine , Models, Statistical , Pancreatic Neoplasms/urine , Aged , Algorithms , Carcinoma, Pancreatic Ductal/diagnosis , Carcinoma, Pancreatic Ductal/pathology , Case-Control Studies , Creatinine/urine , Early Detection of Cancer/methods , Humans , Lithostathine/urine , Logistic Models , Machine Learning , Middle Aged , Neoplasm Staging , Pancreatic Neoplasms/diagnosis , Pancreatic Neoplasms/pathology , Predictive Value of Tests , Risk , Trefoil Factor-1/urine , Vesicular Transport Proteins/urineABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although mammography screening is available, there is an ongoing interest in improved early detection and prognosis. Herein, we have analysed a combination of serological biomarkers in a case-control cohort of sera taken before diagnosis. METHODS: This nested case-control study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) used serum samples from 239 women who subsequently developed breast cancer and 239 matched cancer-free controls. Sera were screened by ELISA for 9 candidate markers. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to examine associations with clinico-pathological features and between case controls in different time groups before diagnosis. RESULTS: Significant associations with clinico-pathological features related to prognosis were found for several candidates (CA15-3, HSP90A and PAI-1). However, there were no consistent differences between cases and controls for any candidate in the lead up to diagnosis. Whilst combination models outperformed single markers, there was no increase in performance towards diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study using unique pre-diagnosis samples shows that CA15-3, HSP90A and PAI-1 have potential as early prognostic markers and warrant further investigation. However, none of the candidates or combinations would be useful for screening.
