Effects of meteorological factors on influenza transmissibility by virus type/subtype.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative evidence on the impact of meteorological factors on influenza transmissibility across different virus types/subtypes is scarce, and no previous studies have reported the effect of hourly temperature variability (HTV) on influenza transmissibility. Herein, we explored the associations between meteorological factors and influenza transmissibility according to the influenza type and subtype in Guangzhou, a subtropical city in China. METHODS: We collected influenza surveillance and meteorological data of Guangzhou between October 2010 and December 2019. Influenza transmissibility was measured using the instantaneous effective reproductive number (Rt). A gamma regression with a log link combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the associations of daily meteorological factors with Rt by influenza types/subtypes. RESULTS: The exposure-response relationship between ambient temperature and Rt was non-linear, with elevated transmissibility at low and high temperatures. Influenza transmissibility increased as HTV increased when HTV < around 4.5 °C. A non-linear association was observed between absolute humidity and Rt, with increased transmissibility at low absolute humidity and at around 19 g/m3. Relative humidity had a U-shaped association with influenza transmissibility. The associations between meteorological factors and influenza transmissibility varied according to the influenza type and subtype: elevated transmissibility was observed at high ambient temperatures for influenza A(H3N2), but not for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09; transmissibility of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 increased as HTV increased when HTV < around 4.5 °C, but the transmissibility decreased with HTV when HTV < 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C for influenza A(H3N2) and B, respectively; positive association of Rt with absolute humidity was witnessed for influenza A(H3N2) even when absolute humidity was larger than 19 g/m3, which was different from that for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B. CONCLUSIONS: Temperature variability has an impact on influenza transmissibility. Ambient temperature, temperature variability, and humidity influence the transmissibility of different influenza types/subtypes discrepantly. Our findings have important implications for improving preparedness for influenza epidemics, especially under climate change conditions.

Key Social Determinants to Narrow the Gap between Health-adjusted Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy in Megacities.

Objective: Improvement in the quality of life is reflected in the narrowing of the gap between health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) and life expectancy (LE). The effect of megacity expansion on narrowing the gap is rarely reported. This study aimed to disclose this potential relationship. Methods: Annual life tables were constructed from identified death records and population counts from multiple administrative sources in Guangzhou, China, from 2010 to 2020. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate the temporal trend. Generalized principal component analysis and multilevel models were applied to examine the county-level association between the gap and social determinants. Results: Although LE and HALE in megacities are increasing steadily, their gap is widening. Socio-economic and health services are guaranteed to narrow this gap. Increasing personal wealth, a growing number of newborns and healthy immigrants, high urbanization, and healthy aging have helped in narrowing this gap. Conclusion: In megacities, parallel LE and HALE growth should be highly considered to narrow their gap. Multiple social determinants need to be integrated as a whole to formulate public health plans.

Transmission and containment of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of concern in Guangzhou, China: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The first community transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Delta variant of concern (VOC) in Guangzhou, China occurred between May and June 2021. Herein, we describe the epidemiological characteristics of this outbreak and evaluate the implemented containment measures against this outbreak. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention provided the data on SARS-CoV-2 infections reported between 21 May and 24 June 2021. We estimated the incubation period distribution by fitting a gamma distribution to the data, while the serial interval distribution was estimated by fitting a normal distribution. The instantaneous effective reproductive number (Rt) was estimated to reflect the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2. Clinical severity was compared for cases with different vaccination statuses using an ordinal regression model after controlling for age. Of the reported local cases, 7/153 (4.6%) were asymptomatic. The median incubation period was 6.02 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.42-6.71) days and the means of serial intervals decreased from 5.19 (95% CI: 4.29-6.11) to 3.78 (95% CI: 2.74-4.81) days. The incubation period increased with age (P<0.001). A hierarchical prevention and control strategy against COVID-19 was implemented in Guangzhou, with Rt decreasing from 6.83 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.98-10.44) for the 7-day time window ending on 27 May 2021 to below 1 for the time window ending on 8 June and thereafter. Individuals with partial or full vaccination schedules with BBIBP-CorV or CoronaVac accounted for 15.3% of the COVID-19 cases. Clinical symptoms were milder in partially or fully vaccinated cases than in unvaccinated cases (odds ratio [OR] = 0.26 [95% CI: 0.07-0.94]). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The hierarchical prevention and control strategy against COVID-19 in Guangzhou was timely and effective. Authorised inactivated vaccines are likely to contribute to reducing the probability of developing severe disease. Our findings have important implications for the containment of COVID-19.

Effectiveness of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against the Delta variant infection in Guangzhou: a test-negative case-control real-world study.

The effectiveness of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against the Delta variant, which has been associated with greater transmissibility and virulence, remains unclear. We conducted a test-negative case-control study to explore the vaccine effectiveness (VE) in real-world settings. We recruited participants aged 18-59 years who consisted of SARS-CoV-2 test-positive cases (n = 74) and test-negative controls (n = 292) during the outbreak of the Delta variant in May 2021 in Guangzhou city, China. Vaccination status was compared to estimate The VE of SARS-CoV-2 inactivated vaccines. A single dose of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine yielded the VE of only 13.8%. After adjusting for age and sex, the overall VE for two-dose vaccination was 59.0% (95% confidence interval: 16.0% to 81.6%) against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and 70.2% (95% confidence interval: 29.6-89.3%) against moderate COVID-19 and 100% against severe COVID-19 which might be overestimated due to the small sample size. The VE of two-dose vaccination against COVID-19 reached 72.5% among participants aged 40-59 years, and was higher in females than in males against COVID-19 and moderate diseases. While single dose vaccination was not sufficiently protective, the two-dose dosing scheme of the inactivated vaccines was effective against the Delta variant infection in real-world settings, with the estimated efficacy exceeding the World Health Organization minimal threshold of 50%.

Genomic Elucidation of a COVID-19 Resurgence and Local Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Guangzhou, China.

While China experienced a peak and decline in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases at the start of 2020, regional outbreaks continuously emerged in subsequent months. Resurgences of COVID-19 have also been observed in many other countries. In Guangzhou, China, a small outbreak, involving less than 100 residents, emerged in March and April 2020, and comprehensive and near-real-time genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 was conducted. When the numbers of confirmed cases among overseas travelers increased, public health measures were enhanced by shifting from self-quarantine to central quarantine and SARS-CoV-2 testing for all overseas travelers. In an analysis of 109 imported cases, we found diverse viral variants distributed in the global viral phylogeny, which were frequently shared within households but not among passengers on the same flight. In contrast to the viral diversity of imported cases, local transmission was predominately attributed to two specific variants imported from Africa, including local cases that reported no direct or indirect contact with imported cases. The introduction events of the virus were identified or deduced before the enhanced measures were taken. These results show the interventions were effective in containing the spread of SARS-CoV-2, and they rule out the possibility of cryptic transmission of viral variants from the first wave in January and February 2020. Our study provides evidence and emphasizes the importance of controls for overseas travelers in the context of the pandemic and exemplifies how viral genomic data can facilitate COVID-19 surveillance and inform public health mitigation strategies.

[The feasibility of outpatient data used for respiratory syndromic surveillance in general hospital].

OBJECTIVE: To find out the data sources of respiratory syndromes and their components from the outpatients of general hospitals and to describe the time distribution and mutual relations of different respiratory syndromes. Feasibility of respiratory syndromes used for early warning surveillance on respiratory infectious disease was also under research. METHODS: Retrospective investigation on Hospital Information System (HIS) was implemented in a general hospital in Guangzhou, 2005, and data of outpatients was collected and classified into different syndromes. The respiratory syndromes with its time distribution similar to influenza like illness (ILI), were selected, and cross-correlation analyses were conducted to investigate the feasibility of respiratory syndromes for early warning surveillance on respiratory infection diseases (influenza as an example). RESULTS: Primary sub-classification of respiratory syndromes in outpatient department would include upper respiratory infection (URI) (51.20%), trachitis/bronchitis (18.80%), asthma (17.52%), etc. Pulmonary infection accounted for only 2.26%. Time distributions of URI, trachitis/bronchitis, pulmonary infection, cough and asthma in outpatient department, X-ray tests and pneumonia/acute respiratory distress syndromes (ARDSs) in outpatient X-ray room were similar, with two peaks observed. Cross-correlation functions were calculated with the data sets of 1(st) - 28(th) week. The most significant correlation was detected between the time series of outpatient pulmonary infections and ILIs moved 4 weeks backward (r = 0.739, P < 0.01), and that was detected between URIs and ILIs moved 5 weeks backward (r = 0.714, P < 0.01). Correlation between X-ray tests, pneumonia/ARDSs in outpatient X-ray room and ILIs was the strongest when ILIs time series moved 1 week backward (r = 0.858, P < 0.001;r = 0.821, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Outpatient data from HIS system in general hospital could be applied to syndromic surveillance on respiratory diseases. For early warning epidemics or outbreaks of influenza or other respiratory infectious diseases, data of outpatient pulmonary infection appeared to be the most feasible for its specificity and timeliness, followed by URI and cough. X-ray tests and pneumonia/ARDSs in outpatient X-ray findings were important supplementary to verify the respiratory disease epidemics or outbreaks for its good specificity, but with no advantage for early warning.

A patient with asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and antigenemia from the 2003-2004 community outbreak of SARS in Guangzhou, China.

An asymptomatic case of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) occurred early in 2004, during a community outbreak of SARS in Guangzhou, China. This was the first time that a case of asymptomatic SARS was noted in an individual with antigenemia and seroconversion. The asymptomatic case patient and the second index case patient with SARS in the 2003-2004 outbreak both worked in the same restaurant, where they served palm civets, which were found to carry SARS-associated coronaviruses. Epidemiological information and laboratory findings suggested that the findings for the patient with asymptomatic infection, together with the findings from previously reported serological analyses of handlers of wild animals and the 4 index case patients from the 2004 community outbreak, reflected a likely intermediate phase of animal-to-human transmission of infection, rather than a case of human-to-human transmission. This intermediate phase may be a critical stage for virus evolution and disease prevention.

[Study on human case of avian influenza in Guangzhou 2006 without causing human-to-human transmission among close contacts].

UNLABELLED: Study on human case of avian influenza in Guangzhou 2006 without causing human-to-human transmission OBJECTIVE: To explore the possibility of transmission from a human case of avian influenza to his close contacts. METHODS: Close contacts of the human case of avian influenza in Guangzhou 2006 were found out according to the definition and methods publicized by the Ministry of Health, People's Republic of China. Epidemiological investigation and medical observation were carried out. Serum antibodies were tested in some of the close contacts. RESULTS: The avian influenza patient had never left Guangzhou in the month prior to disease onset. No contact history with dead or diseased poultry was found. A total of 56 close contacts, including his girl friend, relatives, friends and medical staff who had taken care of him, were brought under medical observation for 7 days but none of them showed signs of infection. CONCLUSION: Unlike SARS, direct contact with patient contracted with avian influenza at the end of incubation period and in the stage of illness through flying droplets, saliva, mucous membrane and skin injuries will not lead to human-to-human transmission, indicating the virus' ability to pass from human to human is limited.

Food markets with live birds as source of avian influenza.

A patient may have been infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in Guangzhou, People's Republic of China, at a food market that had live birds. Virus genes were detected in 1 of 79 wire cages for birds at 9 markets. One of 110 persons in the poultry business at markets had neutralizing antibody against H5N1.

Cross-host evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus in palm civet and human.

The genomic sequences of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses from human and palm civet of the 2003/2004 outbreak in the city of Guangzhou, China, were nearly identical. Phylogenetic analysis suggested an independent viral invasion from animal to human in this new episode. Combining all existing data but excluding singletons, we identified 202 single-nucleotide variations. Among them, 17 are polymorphic in palm civets only. The ratio of nonsynonymous/synonymous nucleotide substitution in palm civets collected 1 yr apart from different geographic locations is very high, suggesting a rapid evolving process of viral proteins in civet as well, much like their adaptation in the human host in the early 2002-2003 epidemic. Major genetic variations in some critical genes, particularly the Spike gene, seemed essential for the transition from animal-to-human transmission to human-to-human transmission, which eventually caused the first severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak of 2002/2003.

[Study on the epidemiology and measures for control on severe acute respiratory syndrome in Guangzhou city].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics, related risk factors, measures for its control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). METHODS: Data on epidemiological features, pathogens and measures for control were collected and analyzed. RESULTS: Since Jan 2003, infectious atypical pneumonia (AP) has become epidemic in Guangzhou city. The first autochthonous case was identified on Jan 2nd. Number of cases started to increase since February and reached peak in the early 10 days of February. Hereafter the epidemic tended to decline in March and since early April, the average number of new cases began to decrease, less than 10 per day. Epidemiological studies revealed that the number of cases aged between 20 and 50 was higher than that below the age of 20. Of the total 966 cases, 429 were males versus 537 females. Geographically, the epidemics covered all 13 districts of Guangzhou, but 95% of the cases concentrated in 7 urban districts. As for professional distribution, health care workers accounted for 28.67% of the total cases. There were 36 deaths, aged from 5 to 89, with half of them older than 60. Out of the victims, 38.9% of them had complications as hypertension, diabetes, heart diseases and COPD etc. Data regarding the clustering features of cases showed that there were 42 families having 2 or more cases in one family, while 277 health workers suffered from SARS were concentrated in 28 hospitals. Only one outbreak took place in a public setting but no outbreak was reported in schools. Relevant research also indicated that SARS could be classified as an air-borne infectious disease, transmitted through aerosol and droplets, but close contact also played an important role in the mode of transmission. The disease was highly infectious, suggesting that people who had close contact with patients in the place with poor ventilation was in greater risk of getting infection. The incubation period ranged from 1 to 11 days (mainly from 3 to 8 days), with an average of 5 days. According to our observation, the following measures might be effective such as: early diagnosis, isolation and treatment provided to the patients, and suspected cases under medical observation should also be put in separate places. Improving ventilation and regular disinfection over air and stuff in hospital wards were also recommended. In order to prevent iatrogenic infection, sense on self-protection among health care workers must be strengthened. Patients were not allowed to be visited by any one other than hospital staff. CONCLUSION: SARS is a preventable disease and can be under control. It is of great importance to prevent clustered SARS cases and the prevention of iatrogenic infection is essential.