ABSTRACT
Based on statistic analysis theory, the occurrence patterns of forest fire in Heilongjiang Province were studied, and the prediction model for forest fire-burnt area was established based on meteorological factors. The results showed that most of forest fires in Larix gmelinii forest region occurred from April to June and in October, and those in broadleaved Korean pine forest region mainly occurred from March to June and in October. By adopting the values of average wind speed, relative humidity and mean temperature, it was predicted that in L. gmelinii forest region, the first three months with greater probability of larger fire occurrence were March, May and June in order, while in broadleaved Korean pine forest region, they were May, March and April. The average precision of the model was 63.3%, suggesting that it could be used to predict the burnt area by forest fires.
