BeCaked: An Explainable Artificial Intelligence Model for COVID-19 Forecasting.

From the end of 2019, one of the most serious and largest spread pandemics occurred in Wuhan (China) named Coronavirus (COVID-19). As reported by the World Health Organization, there are currently more than 100 million infectious cases with an average mortality rate of about five percent all over the world. To avoid serious consequences on people's lives and the economy, policies and actions need to be suitably made in time. To do that, the authorities need to know the future trend in the development process of this pandemic. This is the reason why forecasting models play an important role in controlling the pandemic situation. However, the behavior of this pandemic is extremely complicated and difficult to be analyzed, so that an effective model is not only considered on accurate forecasting results but also the explainable capability for human experts to take action pro-actively. With the recent advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, the emerging Deep Learning (DL) models have been proving highly effective when forecasting this pandemic future from the huge historical data. However, the main weakness of DL models is lacking the explanation capabilities. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel combination of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) compartmental model and Variational Autoencoder (VAE) neural network known as BeCaked. With pandemic data provided by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, our model achieves 0.98 [Formula: see text] and 0.012 MAPE at world level with 31-step forecast and up to 0.99 [Formula: see text] and 0.0026 MAPE at country level with 15-step forecast on predicting daily infectious cases. Not only enjoying high accuracy, but BeCaked also offers useful justifications for its results based on the parameters of the SIRD model. Therefore, BeCaked can be used as a reference for authorities or medical experts to make on time right decisions.

Siamese KG-LSTM: A deep learning model for enriching UMLS Metathesaurus synonymy.

The Unified Medical Language System, or UMLS, is a repository of medical terminology developed by the U.S. National Library of Medicine for improving the computer system's ability of understanding the biomedical and health languages. The UMLS Metathesaurus is one of the three UMLS knowledge sources, containing medical terms and their relationships. Due to the rapid increase in the number of medical terms recently, the current construction of UMLS Metathesaurus, which heavily depends on lexical tools and human editors, is error-prone and time-consuming. This paper takes advantages of the emerging deep learning models for learning to predict the synonyms and non-synonyms between the pairs of biomedical terms in the Metathesaurus. Our learning approach focuses a subset of specific terms instead of the whole Metathesaurus corpus. Particularly, we train the models with biomedical terms from the Disorders semantic group. To strengthen the models, we enrich the inputs with different strategies, including synonyms and hierarchical relationships from source vocabularies. Our deep learning model adopts the Siamese KG-LSTM (Siamese Knowledge Graph - Long Short-Term Memory) in the architecture. The experimental results show that this approach yields excellent performance when handling the task of synonym detection for Disorders semantic group in the Metathesaurus. This shows the potential of applying machine learning techniques in the UMLS Metathesaurus construction process. Although the work in this paper focuses only on specific semantic group of Disorders, we believe that the proposed method can be applied to other semantic groups in the UMLS Metathesaurus.