ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the increase in tuberculosis (TB) notification rates among young adults in Vietnam reflects increased transmission in the population at large. METHOD: Trends of case notification rates of new smear-positive TB were calculated from routinely reported data of district TB units over the period 1996-2005. Results from repeated tuberculin surveys among children aged 6-9 years were obtained to calculate the trend in annual risk of TB infection (ARTI). FINDINGS: From 1996 to 2006, notification rates in the age group 15-24 years increased by 4.3% per year, and more so in highly urbanised (6.7%) than in rural districts (1.7%). The ARTI in urban districts declined from 2.4% in 1992 to 1.2% in 1998 and 0.9% in 2005. In rural districts, the ARTI increased from 0.7% in 1991 to 1.2% in 1997, and then declined to 0.9% in 2006. CONCLUSION: The increase in TB notification rates among young adults in Ho Chi Minh Province is accompanied by a decrease in ARTI in children. This suggests that the trend in TB notification among young adults reflects increased rates of progression from infection to disease and/or increased transmission within this age group, rather than increased transmission in the population at large.
