The Impact of Climate Change on Aeromedical Retrieval Services in Remote Northern Australia: Planning for a Hotter Future.

It is known that environmental heat is associated with increased morbidity manifesting as increasing demand on acute care health services including pre-hospital transport and emergency departments. These services play a vital role in emergency care, and in rural and remote locations, where resource capacity is limited, aeromedical and other retrieval services are a vital part of healthcare delivery. There is no research examining how heat impacts remote retrieval service delivery. The Northern Territory (NT) of Australia is characterised by very remote communities with limited acute healthcare capacities and is a region subject to regular extreme tropical heat. In this study, we examine the relationship between aeromedical retrievals and hot weather for all NT retrievals between February 2018 and December 2019. A regression analysis was performed on the number of retrievals by clinical reason for retrieval matched to the temperature on the day of retrieval. There was a statistically significant exposure response relationship with increasing retrievals of obstetric emergencies in hotter weather in the humid climate zone and surgical retrievals in the arid zone. Retrieval services appeared to be at capacity at all times of the year. Given that there are no obstetric services in remote communities and that obstetric emergencies are a higher triage category than other emergencies (i.e., more urgent), such an increase will impede overall retrieval service delivery in hot weather. Increasing surgical retrievals in the arid zone may reflect an increase in soft tissue infections occurring in overcrowded houses in the hotter months of the year. Given that retrieval services are at capacity throughout the year, any increase in demand caused by increasing environmental heat will have broad implications for service delivery as the climate warms. Planning for a hotter future must include building resilient communities by optimising local healthcare capacity and addressing housing and other socioeconomic inequities that amplify heat-related illness.

Heart failure among Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians in remote Central Australia.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of data on the burden of heart failure (HF) in Central Australia, the most populous Indigenous region in the country. AIMS: To characterize Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians with HF in Central Australia. METHODS: Consecutive patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction <50% were included for the period 2019 to 2021. Clinical, echocardiographic and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) data were collected. RESULTS: Four hundred twenty-four patients with HF were included (70% Indigenous, 59% male; follow-up 2.2 ± 0.5 years). Indigenous Australians were younger (53 ± 15 vs 68 ± 13 years, P < 0.001) with higher rates of rheumatic heart disease (18% vs 1%, P < 0.001), diabetes (63% vs 33%, P < 0.001) and severe chronic kidney disease (CKD; 32% vs 7%, P < 0.001). HF was more prevalent among Indigenous (138 [95% confidence interval (CI), 123-155] per 10 000) compared with non-Indigenous Australians (53 [95% CI, 44-63] per 10 000), particularly among younger individuals and females. There were similar HF aetiologies between groups. Guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) was suboptimal and similar between the groups: angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker (64% vs 67%, P = 0.47) and ß-blockers (68% vs 71%, P = 0.47). Indigenous Australians had a significantly higher rate of MACE (54% vs 28%, P < 0.001) and death from any cause (24% vs 13%, P = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: HF is more than two times as prevalent among Indigenous Central Australians, particularly among younger individuals and females. Despite similar HF aetiologies and GDMT, MACE and mortality outcomes are higher in Indigenous individuals with HF. These data have implications for efforts to close the Indigenous gap in morbidity and mortality.

The relative value of sociocultural and infrastructural adaptations to heat in a very hot climate in northern Australia: a case time series of heat-associated mortality.

BACKGROUND: Climate change is increasing heat-associated mortality particularly in hotter parts of the world. The Northern Territory is a large and sparsely populated peri-equatorial state in Australia. The Northern Territory has the highest proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australia (31%), most of whom live in remote communities of over 65 Aboriginal Nations defined by ancient social, cultural, and linguistic heritage. The remainder non-Indigenous population lives mostly within the two urban centres (Darwin in the Top End region and Alice Springs in the Centre region of the Northern Territory). Here we aim to compare non-Indigenous (eg, high income) and Indigenous societies in a tropical environment and explore the relative importance of physiological, sociocultural, and technological and infrastructural adaptations to heat. METHODS: In this case time series, we matched temperature at the time of death using a modified distributed lag non-linear model for all deaths in the Northern Territory, Australia, from Jan 1, 1980, to Dec 31, 2019. Data on deaths came from the national registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages. Cases were excluded if location or date of death were not recorded or if the person was a non-resident. Daily maximum and minimum temperature were measured and recorded by the Bureau of Meteorology. Hot weather was defined as mean temperature greater than 35°C over a 3-day lag. Socioeconomic status as indicated by Index of Relative Socioeconomic Disadvantage was mapped from location at death. FINDINGS: During the study period, 34 782 deaths were recorded; after exclusions 31 800 deaths were included in statistical analysis (15 801 Aboriginal and 15 999 non-Indigenous). There was no apparent reduction in heat susceptibility despite infrastructural and technological improvements for the majority non-Indigenous population over the study period with no heat-associated mortality in the first two decades (1980-99; relative risk 1·00 [95% CI 0·87-1·15]) compared with the second two decades (2000-19; 1·14 [1·01-1·29]). Despite marked socioeconomic inequity, Aboriginal people are not more susceptible to heat mortality (1·05, [0·95-1·18]) than non-Indigenous people (1·18 [1·06-1·29]). INTERPRETATION: It is widely believed that technological and infrastructural adaptations are crucial in preparing for hotter climates; however, this study suggests that social and cultural adaptations to increasing hot weather are potentially powerful mechanisms for protecting human health. Although cool shelters are essential during extreme heat, research is required to determine whether excessive exposure to air-conditioned spaces might impair physiological acclimatisation to the prevailing environment. Understanding sociocultural practices from past and ancient societies provides insight into non-technological adaptation opportunities that are protective of health. FUNDING: None.

A method for rapid machine learning development for data mining with doctor-in-the-loop.

Classifying free-text from historical databases into research-compatible formats is a barrier for clinicians undertaking audit and research projects. The aim of this study was to (a) develop interactive active machine-learning model training methodology using readily available software that was (b) easily adaptable to a wide range of natural language databases and allowed customised researcher-defined categories, and then (c) evaluate the accuracy and speed of this model for classifying free text from two unique and unrelated clinical notes into coded data. A user interface for medical experts to train and evaluate the algorithm was created. Data requiring coding in the form of two independent databases of free-text clinical notes, each of unique natural language structure. Medical experts defined categories relevant to research projects and performed 'label-train-evaluate' loops on the training data set. A separate dataset was used for validation, with the medical experts blinded to the label given by the algorithm. The first dataset was 32,034 death certificate records from Northern Territory Births Deaths and Marriages, which were coded into 3 categories: haemorrhagic stroke, ischaemic stroke or no stroke. The second dataset was 12,039 recorded episodes of aeromedical retrieval from two prehospital and retrieval services in Northern Territory, Australia, which were coded into 5 categories: medical, surgical, trauma, obstetric or psychiatric. For the first dataset, macro-accuracy of the algorithm was 94.7%. For the second dataset, macro-accuracy was 92.4%. The time taken to develop and train the algorithm was 124 minutes for the death certificate coding, and 144 minutes for the aeromedical retrieval coding. This machine-learning training method was able to classify free-text clinical notes quickly and accurately from two different health datasets into categories of relevance to clinicians undertaking health service research.

'COVID on Country': an innovative model safely supporting high-risk patients in Central Australia.

In January 2022, as the COVID pandemic reached remote communities in Central Australia, The Northern Territory Health Central Australian Regional Health Service and the Royal Flying Doctor Service (RFDS) executed 'COVID on Country', a program designed to triage cases and to implement treatment and clinical review of individuals in their community without the need to be relocated to larger centres for safe provision of care. The program assessed patient factors and community/capacity factors to triage and enact pathways. Remote living people who qualified for the program or who declined aeromedical retrieval, were provided with comprehensive clinical support, including administration of intravenous sotrovimab by daily scheduled visits to all affected communities by a doctor transported on an RFDS plane. Evaluation of the program demonstrated that it was a safe and effective way to provide complex care in a culturally safe manner.

Surveying the changing climate of Northern Territory medical workforce retention.

INTRODUCTION: Low retention is a significant contributor to medical workforce shortages in rural and remote regions of Australia, including in the Northern Territory (NT). Many of these areas are susceptible to climate change, which could exacerbate workforce retention problems. OBJECTIVE: To examine factors influencing medical workforce retention in the NT, including the potential impact of climate change. DESIGN: Cross sectional online survey of NT medical professionals, distributed via email through professional networks. Predominantly quantitative mixed methods (descriptive statistics, multivariate logistic regression, thematic analysis). Main 2 outcome measures reported were proportion of respondents intending to leave the NT, timeframe of intention to leave and motivating factors. FINDINGS: Of 1407 registered practising medical professionals in the NT, 362 responded who met inclusion criteria (26% estimated response rate) and 351 completed all questions. Of the latter, 143 (41%) intended to leave the NT, 102 (29%) were unsure, and 106 (30%) did not intend to leave. Among doctors in training (DITs) 67 (55%) intended to leave and 29 (24%) were unsure. The best multivariable predictive model included only practice type (with general practitioners/rural generalists and non-GP specialists significantly less likely to intend to leave compared to DITs), and location of primary medical degree (with non-NT training non-significantly associated with greater intention to leave). Of those intending to leave 94 (66%) reported planning to do so within two years. Training and career development opportunities, job dissatisfaction, moving to a preferred location and family-related factors were all important motivators. Of those considering leaving, 58 (24%) identified climate change as a motivating factor. CONCLUSION: Retention remains a key challenge in addressing rural workforce shortages. In addition to established factors, climate change is an important driver that has the potential to worsen workforce shortages in susceptible regions.

The Effect of Heat Events on Prehospital and Retrieval Service Utilization in Rural and Remote Areas: A Scoping Review.

INTRODUCTION: It is well-established that heatwaves increase demand for emergency transport in metropolitan areas; however, little is known about the impact of heat events on demand for prehospital retrieval services in rural and remote areas, or how heatwaves are defined in this context. INCLUSION CRITERIA: Papers were eligible for inclusion if they reported on the impact of a heat event on the activity of a prehospital and retrieval service in a rural or remote area. METHODS: A search of PubMed, Cochrane, Science Direct, CINAHL, and Google Scholar databases was undertaken on August 18, 2020 using search terms related to emergency medical transport, extreme heat, and rural or remote. Data relevant to the impact of heat on retrieval service activity were extracted, as well as definitions of extreme heat. RESULTS: Two papers were identified, both from Australia. Both found that heat events increased the number of road ambulance call-outs. Both studies used the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) to define heatwave periods of interest. CONCLUSIONS: This review found almost no primary literature on demand for prehospital retrieval services in rural and remote areas, and no data specifically related to aeromedical transport. The research did recognize the disproportionate impact of heat-related increase in service demand on Australian rural and regional health services. With the effects of climate change already being felt, there is an urgent need for more research and action in this area.

Providing palliative care closer to home: a retrospective analysis from a remote Australian hospital.

BACKGROUND: Rural and remote patients have reduced access to palliative care, often resulting in inter-hospital transfers and death a long way from home and family. Katherine Hospital (KH), a 50-bed hospital services a population with high Aboriginality who experience this issue. AIMS: To characterise trends in mortality and transfers at a remote hospital in reference to increasing capacity to provide palliative care. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of deaths in patients over 18 years of age, admitted between 2008 and 2018 at KH, Northern Territory. Outcome measures include number of deaths, aeromedical transfers to tertiary facility, palliative care episodes, demographics including Aboriginality, admission data and comorbidity. Statistical analysis included unpaired t-test, chi-square test and regression analysis. RESULTS: The number of deaths in KH increased from 23 (0.88% of inpatient admissions) in 2011 to 52 in 2018 (1.7%). During the same period, the proportion of all deaths classified as palliative increased from 51.4 to 66.0% (P = 0.001), with fewer deaths occurring in the emergency department (17.2-1.4% for the last 3 years, R = 0.75, P = 0.008). The number of aeromedical transfers of patients from KH to tertiary centres decreased from 769 (10.4% of all admissions) in 2011 to 434 (3.4%) in 2018 (P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing the capacity of a remote hospital to provide palliative care allowed more patients to die closer to home and decreased inappropriate aeromedical retrievals. An increased in-hospital mortality rate should not be misinterpreted as reflecting suboptimal care if palliative intent, patients' wishes and non-clinical risk factors have not been ascertained.

Addressing Profound Disadvantages to Improve Indigenous Health and Reduce Hospitalisation: A Collaborative Community Program in Remote Northern Territory.

BACKGROUND: Aboriginal people in rural and remote areas of the Northern Territory of Australia have suffered longstanding issues of homelessness and profound health and social inequities. The town and region of Katherine are particularly impacted by such inequities and have the highest rates of homelessness in Australia, composed almost entirely of Aboriginal people who represent 51% of the total population of 24,000 people. The region is serviced by a 60-bed hospital, and a small cohort of frequent attenders (FAs) represent 11% of the Emergency Department (ED) case load. The vast majority of FAs are Aboriginal and have very high burdens of social inequity and homelessness. FAs are a challenge to efficient and effective use of resources for most hospitals around the world, and investment in programs to address underlying social and chronic health issues contributing to frequent attendance have been demonstrated to be effective. METHODS: These are the interim findings of a prospective cohort study using five sources of linked health and related data to evaluate a community-based case management pilot in a culturally competent framework to support frequent attenders to the Katherine Hospital ED. FAs were defined as people with six or more presentations in 12 preceding months. The intervention composed of a community-based case management program with a multi-agency service delivery addressing underlying vulnerabilities contributing to ED presentations. RESULTS: Among this predominantly Aboriginal cohort (91%), there were high rates of homelessness (64%), food insecurity (60%) and alcohol misuse (64%), limited access to transport, and complex comorbidities (average of 2.8 chronic conditions per client). Following intervention, there was a statistically significant reduction in ED presentations (IRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.69-0.85), increased engagement with primary health care (IRR 1.90, 95% CI 1.78-2.03), and ambulance utilisation (IRR 1.21, 95% CI 1.07-1.38). Reductions in hospital admissions (IRR 0.93, 95% CI 0.77-1.10) and aeromedical retrievals (IRR 0.67, 95% CI 0.35-1.20) were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the short-term impacts of community-led case management extending beyond the hospital setting, to address causes of recurrent ED presentations among people with complex social and medical backgrounds. Improving engagement with primary care is a particularly important outcome given the national impetus to reduce preventable hospital admissions.

Factors contributing to frequent attendance to the emergency department of a remote Northern Territory hospital.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the clinical and environmental variables associated with frequent presentations by adult patients to a remote Australian hospital emergency department (ED) for reasons other than chronic health conditions. DESIGN: Unmatched case-control study of all adult patients attending Katherine Hospital ED between 1 January and 31 December 2012. PARTICIPANTS: Cases were defined as frequent attenders (FAs) without a chronic health condition who presented to the ED six or more times during the 12-month period. A single presentation was randomly selected for data collection. Controls were patients who presented on only one occasion. OUTCOME MEASURES: Basic demographic data were collected, including clinical outcomes, Indigenous status, living arrangements, and whether alcohol and violence contributed to the presentation. Environmental variables were extracted from the Bureau of Meteorology database and mapped to each presentation. RESULTS: FAs were much more likely to be homeless (odds ratio [OR], 16.4; P < 0.001) and to be Aboriginal (OR, 2.16; P < 0.001); alcohol as a contributing factor was also more likely (OR, 2.77; P = 0.001). FAs were more likely to present in hotter, wetter weather, although the association was statistically weak. Clinical presentations by cases and controls were similar; the annual death rates for both groups were high (3.6% and 1.5%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: There was a strong association between FA and Aboriginal status, homelessness and the involvement of alcohol, but alcohol was more likely to contribute to presentation by non-Aboriginal FAs who had stable living conditions. FAs and non-FAs had similar needs for emergency medical care, with strikingly higher death rates than the national average in both groups. As a result of this study, Katherine Hospital has initiated a Frequent Attender Pathway that automatically triggers a dedicated ED service for those at greatest clinical risk. Homelessness is a serious problem in the Northern Territory, and is associated with poor health outcomes.

Rural general physicians: improving access and reducing costs of health care in the bush.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of the introduction of a trainee specialist physician into the workforce mix of a rural hospital in the Northern Territory. METHODS: A retrospective review comparing clinical and non-clinical outcomes during two corresponding 6-month periods in 2011 and 2012, before and after a FRACP Trainee in General and Acute Care Medicine commenced employment in the hospital. RESULTS: There was a significant reduction of 18% in total length of stay of admitted adult patients, with a 23% reduction of inter-hospital transfers and a 43% reduction of total aeromedical evacuations after the introduction of the trainee specialist. Although there was a 9% increase in patients presenting to the emergency department, there was a 9% reduction in total adult admissions. There was no change in the overall in-patient mortality rate; however, there was a significant change in the location of death, with an increase in patients dying in Katherine Hospital and a reciprocal decrease in death rate in those who had been transferred to Royal Darwin Hospital after the arrival of the trainee CONCLUSIONS: The addition of an Advanced Trainee in General Medicine led to a significant change in the capacity of the hospital to care for unwell and complex patients. The role of the hospital in the care of dying patients was redefined and allowed many more people to pass away closer to their community and families. There were considerable savings at Katherine Hospital in terms of reduced bed pressure, reduced hospital bypass behaviour and reduced inter-hospital transfers, and these translated into significant benefits for the tertiary referral hospital in Darwin. A rural general physician can greatly value add to the capacity of a rural hospital and is a highly effective mechanism for reducing the disparities in healthcare access for rural and Indigenous patients.