Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: A case study in invasive tree pests and diseases.

The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that it is possible to define a benchmark 'real' risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly problematic when there are high levels of scientific uncertainty and a lack of expert consensus about the nature of a risk and its impacts. In order to explore this further, this paper examines how 'experts' - defined in this case as scientists, policy makers, outbreak managers and key stakeholders - construct and assemble their understanding of the risks associated with two invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks in the UK, ash dieback and oak processionary moth. Through semi-structured interviews with experts in each of the case study outbreaks, the paper aims to better understand the nature of information sources drawn on to construct perceptions of tree health risks, especially when uncertainty is prevalent. A key conclusion is that risk assessment is a socially-mediated, relational and incremental process with experts drawing on a range of official, anecdotal and experiential sources of information, as well as reference to past events in order to assemble the risk case. Aligned with this, experts make attributions about public concern, especially when the evidence base is incomplete and there is a need to justify policy and management actions and safeguard reputation.

The effects of invasive pests and pathogens on strategies for forest diversification.

Diversification of the tree species composition of production forests is a frequently advocated strategy to increase resilience to pests and pathogens; however, there is a lack of a general framework to analyse the impact of economic and biological conditions on the optimal planting strategy in the presence of tree disease. To meet this need we use a novel bioeconomic model to quantitatively assess the effect of tree disease on the optimal planting proportion of two tree species. We find that diversifying the species composition can reduce the economic loss from disease even when the benefit from the resistant species is small. However, this key result is sensitive to a pathogen's characteristics (probability of arrival, time of arrival, rate of spread of infection) and the losses (damage of the disease to the susceptible species and reduced benefit of planting the resistant species). This study provides an exemplar framework which can be used to help understand the effect of a pathogen on forest management strategies.

Awareness, concern and willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours: public perceptions of invasive tree pests and pathogens in the UK.

The growing incidence of invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks is recognised as an increasing threat to ecosystem services and human wellbeing. Linked to global trade, human movement and climate change, a number of outbreaks have attracted high public and media attention. However, there is surprisingly little evidence characterising the nature of public attentiveness to these events, nor how publics might respond to evolving outbreaks and the management actions taken. This paper presents findings from an online questionnaire involving 1334 respondents nationally-representative of the British public to assess awareness, concern and willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours. Despite revealing low levels of awareness and knowledge, the results indicate that the British public is concerned about the health of trees, forests and woodlands and is moderately willing to adopt biosecure behaviours. A key finding is that membership of environmental organisations and strong place identity are likely to engender higher awareness and levels of concern about tree pests and diseases. Further, those who visit woodlands regularly are likely to be more aware than non-visitors, and gardeners are more likely to be concerned than non-gardeners. Women, older respondents, those with strong place identity and dependence, members of environmental organisations, woodland visitors and gardeners were most likely to express a willingness to adopt biosecure behaviours. A comparison with findings from a survey conducted by the authors 3 years previously shows a decline over time in awareness, concern and willingness.

Barriers to management of tree diseases: Framing perspectives of pinewood managers around Dothistroma Needle Blight.

Forest Managers in the UK and elsewhere are facing new threats such as climate change and novel pests and diseases. Strategies seek to coordinate and steer appropriate responses through raising awareness and encouraging action but little is known about how individual managers respond to disease threats. We studied how managers have responded to the threat of Dothistroma Needle Blight (DNB), a disease which can affect growth and cause mortality of many pine species, and the key frames influencing their responses. Frames involve values and beliefs and allow people to make sense of, and interpret, events, experiences or issues. Interviews revealed broad awareness of the disease and threat it poses, but also high levels of inaction. Lack of action was associated with several framings grouped around causes and perceived severity of DNB, locating responsibility for prevention and management, mistrust/scepticism of advice and uncertainties over the future impact. These framings need to be considered as strategies are refined and new knowledge of disease behaviour is communicated to those from whom action is required.

Frameworks for risk communication and disease management: the case of Lyme disease and countryside users.

Management of zoonotic disease is necessary if countryside users are to gain benefit rather than suffer harm from their activities, and to avoid disproportionate reaction to novel threats. We introduce a conceptual framework based on the pressure-state-response model with five broad responses to disease incidence. Influencing public behaviour is one response and requires risk communication based on an integration of knowledge about the disease with an understanding of how publics respond to precautionary advice. A second framework emphasizes how risk communication involves more than information provision and should address dimensions including points-of-intervention over time, place and audience. The frameworks are developed by reference to tick-borne Lyme borreliosis (also known as Lyme disease), for which informed precautionary behaviour is particularly relevant. Interventions to influence behaviour can be directed by knowledge of spatial and temporal variation of tick abundance, what constitutes risky behaviour, how people respond to information of varying content, and an understanding of the social practices related to countryside use. The frameworks clarify the response options and help identify who is responsible for risk communication. These aspects are not consistently understood, and may result in an underestimation of the role of land-based organizations in facilitating appropriate precautionary behaviour.