ABSTRACT
Background: Accessibility to surgical services can impact earthquake preparedness and response. We aimed to estimate the population with timely access to surgical care in Guerrero, a Mexican state with high tectonic activity, and identify populations at risk in the event of an earthquake. Methods: We conducted an ecological study using open government data. We extracted data from Guerrero municipalities regarding their earthquake risk, social vulnerability, social inequality, marginalisation, and resilience indices. The latest combines municipalities' resistance to unexpected events and capacity to maintain optimal functionality without immediate federal or international support. Geographical coordinates of active public and private surgical facilities in Guerrero were combined with ancillary spatial data on roads and municipalities' population density to estimate population coverage within 30-min and 1-h driving time to surgical facilities in Redivis. We built an ordered beta regression model for each driving time estimate. Findings: We identified 25 public and 16 private facilities capable of providing surgical care in Guerrero. The population with access to facilities with surgical capacity within 30 min and 1-h driving times were 48.4% and 69.1%, respectively. We found that municipalities with very high levels of earthquake risk, social vulnerability, social inequality, and marginalisation, and very low levels of resilience had decreased coverage. In the multivariable analysis, the resilience index was statistically significant only for the 30-min model, with an effect size of 0.524 (95% CI 0.082, 1.089). Interpretation: Access to surgical care remains unequally distributed in Guerrero municipalities at the highest risk for earthquakes. Municipalities' resilience was the most significant predictor of higher surgical care coverage in 30-min driving time. Our study provides insights on how surgical system strengthening can enhance earthquake emergency disaster planning. Funding: No funding.
