Collective scientific assessment as a relevant tool to inform public debate and policymaking: an illustration about the effects of plant protection products on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Several sustainable development goals cannot be achieved without implementing a new generation of environmental measures to better preserve or restore biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, understanding and addressing biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation is a challenging problem that is not solvable without integrating the best and latest science. It is crucial to enhance the legibility of this knowledge for decision-makers and policymakers following good-practice standards of scientific assessment. This is the main objective of collective scientific assessments (CSAs), as carried out by the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and the Environment (INRAE) since the early 2000s following a documented procedure to inform public policy and foster public debate on complex interdisciplinary issues. This article describes the main steps of the CSA procedure designed by INRAE's Directorate for Collective Scientific Assessment, Foresight and Advanced Studies, from formulation of the initial question asked by public or para-public bodies (typically ministry divisions or environmental agencies) to wider dissemination of the results and conclusions. This process description is then illustrated through the example of a CSA recently commissioned by three French Ministries (for Ecology, for Research, and for Agriculture) regarding (i) contamination of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems by plant protection products (PPPs); (ii) the resulting effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services; and (iii) possible prevention and mitigation strategies. The capacity of this kind of CSA to inform public debate and policymaking is then exemplified through a description of the main outcomes generated by the latest CSA dealing with the adverse effects of PPPs. We also provide a short overview of some key expectations from the current CSA, with a focus on the recent development of the ecosystem service approach in ecological risk assessments of PPPs in the European Union. This illustration demonstrates that CSAs, which are applicable to a wide variety of complex interdisciplinary questions that are not limited to environmental issues, are a relevant tool to inform public debate and policymaking.

Exploring the future of land use and food security: A new set of global scenarios.

Facing a growing and more affluent world population, changing climate and finite natural resources, world food systems will have to change in the future. The aim of the Agrimonde-Terra foresight study was to build global scenarios linking land use and food security, with special attention paid to overlooked aspects such as nutrition and health, in order to help explore the possible future of the global food system. In this article, we seek to highlight how the resulting set of scenarios contributes to the debate on land use and food security and enlarges the range of possible futures for the global food system. We highlight four main contributions. Combining a scenario building method based on morphological analysis and quantitative simulations with a tractable and simple biomass balance model, the proposed approach improves transparency and coherence between scenario narratives and quantitative assessment. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios comprise a wide range of alternative diets, with contrasting underlying nutritional and health issues, which accompany contrasting urbanization and rural transformation processes, both dimensions that are lacking in other sets of global scenarios. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios share some similarities with existing sets of global scenarios, notably the SSPs, but are usually less optimistic regarding agricultural land expansion up to 2050. Results suggest that changing global diets toward healthier patterns could also help to limit the expansion in agricultural land area. Agrimonde-Terra's scenarios enlarge the scope of possible futures by proposing two pathways that are uncommon in other sets of global scenarios. The first proposes to explore possible reconnection of the food industry and regional production within supranational regional blocs. The second means that we should consider that a 'perfect storm', induced by climate change and an ecological crisis combined with social and economic crises, is still possible. Both scenarios should be part of the debate as the current context of the COVID-19 pandemic shows.