Socially mediated effects of climate change decrease survival of hibernating Alpine marmots.

In the context of global change, an increasing challenge is to understand the interaction between weather variables and life histories. Species-specific life histories should condition the way climate influences population dynamics, particularly those that are associated with environmental constraints, such as lifestyles like hibernation and sociality. However, the influence of lifestyle in the response of organisms to climate change remains poorly understood. Based on a 23-year longitudinal study on Alpine marmots, we investigated how their lifestyle, characterized by a long hibernation and a high degree of sociality, interacts with the ongoing climate change to shape temporal variation in age-specific survival. As generally reported in other hibernating species, we expected survival of Alpine marmots to be affected by the continuous lengthening of the growing season of plants more than by changes in winter conditions. We found, however, that Alpine marmots displayed lower juvenile survival over time. Colder winters associated with a thinner snow layer lowered juvenile survival, which in turn was associated with a decrease in the relative number of helpers in groups the following years, and therefore lowered the chances of over-winter survival of juveniles born in the most recent years. Our results provide evidence that constraints on life-history traits associated with hibernation and sociality caused juvenile survival to decrease over time, which might prevent Alpine marmots coping successfully with climate change.

A viable population of the European red squirrel in an urban park.

Whether urban parks can maintain viable and self-sustaining populations over the long term is questionable. In highly urbanized landscapes, urban parks could play a role in biodiversity conservation by providing habitat and resources to native species. However, populations inhabiting urban parks are usually small and isolated, leading to increased demographic stochasticity and genetic drift, with expected negative consequences on their viability. Here, we investigated a European red squirrel population located in an urban park close to Paris, France (Parc de Sceaux; 184 ha) to assess its viability. Using mitochondrial D-loop sequences and 13 microsatellite loci, we showed that the population presented high levels of genetic variation and no evidence of inbreeding. The size of the population was estimated at 100-120 individuals based on the comparison of two census techniques, Distance Sampling and Capture-Mark-Recapture. The estimated heterozygosity level and population size were integrated in a Population Viability Analysis to project the likelihood of the population's persistence over time. Results indicate that the red squirrel population of this urban park can be viable on the long term (i.e. 20 years) for a range of realistic demographic parameters (juvenile survival at least >40%) and immigration rates (at least one immigration event every two years). This study highlights that urban parks can be potential suitable refuges for the red squirrel, a locally threatened species across western European countries, provided that ecological corridors are maintained.