An academic analysis with recommendations for water management and planning at the basin scale: A review of water planning in the Segura River Basin.

Water resources management is particularly challenging in water-scarce basins, where low water availability is combined with a potential water demand exceeding the supply capacity of the natural system. This is the case of the Segura River Basin in south-eastern Spain. This paper aims at analysing the usefulness of incorporating new hydrological data and perspectives to improve the understanding of water availability and management and help promote more integrated water planning in the Segura Basin. In this basin, agriculture amounts to approximately 1366 hm3/year and accounts for 80% of the total blue water use. The forest and agriculture use of soil water amounts to 3065 and 1962 hm3/year, respectively. The unaccounted virtual water trade is also relevant and helps in mitigating water scarcity in the basin. The basin is a net virtual water-exporting region, with an average export of 1598 hm3/year, mainly in the form of fruits and vegetables, and imports approximately 1253 hm3/year, mainly related to feed for pig farms. Virtual water imports are four times larger than the disputed water transfer rate to the Segura Basin from other river basins. Water productivity analyses by sub-sectors are useful in understanding the economic rationale of the basin activities. Two types of agriculture coexist in the basin, namely, intensive industrial agriculture and occupational farming, which maintain the territory and landscape. From a Mediterranean country perspective, the analysis recommends considering climate fluctuations and temporal variability and trends of water availability and use, moving beyond the average values considered in river basin management plans. Groundwater reserve depletion continues to occur at a rate of 231 hm3/year, as water from wells is currently cheaper than using desalinated water in farms, and it does not cause boron-related water quality problems for irrigation. If socially costly administrative measures are not taken, groundwater reserve depletion will continue.

¿Es posible predecir la presencia de cáncer colorrectal en el análisis sanguíneo? Método de aproximación probabilística / Is it possible to predict the presence of colorectal cancer in a blood test? A probabilistic approach method

Introducción: la valoración del estado de inmunovigilancia (capacidad del organismo para evitar el desarrollo de neoplasias) en el análisis sanguíneo presenta connotaciones pronósticas de interés en el cáncer colorrectal. Evaluamos un posible carácter predictivo de la enfermedad en el análisis sanguíneo y su cuantificación mediante el diseño de un índice de interacción matemático entre varios parámetros sanguíneos, con capacidad predictiva probabilística de presencia de la enfermedad. Método: estudio casos y controles de análisis comparativo de la distribución de parámetros sanguíneos, sobre 266 pacientes con cáncer colorrectal y 266 pacientes sanos, durante el periodo comprendido entre 2009-2013. Resultados: los sujetos con cáncer colorrectal presentaron, con respecto a los controles, diferencias estadísticamente significativas (p < 0,05) en los niveles de plaquetas, fibrinógeno, leucocitos totales, neutrófilos, índices de inmunovigilancia sistémica (ratio neutrófilo/linfocito y ratio plaqueta/linfocito), hemoglobina, hematocrito y eosinófilos. Estas diferencias permitieron el diseño de un perfil analítico sanguíneo de riesgo de enfermedad, cuantificable mediante la aplicación de una fórmula matemática con capacidad de identificación probabilística de los sujetos con mayor riesgo de presencia de enfermedad (área bajo la curva del espacio ROC = 0,85). Conclusiones: Ante la posible existencia de un carácter predictivo de presencia de cáncer colorrectal en el análisis sanguíneo, mostramos que es posible su cuantificación mediante el diseño de un índice de interacción entre varios parámetros sanguíneos. El diseño y desarrollo de índices de interacción entre parámetros sanguíneos constituye una línea de investigación de interés para el desarrollo y mejora de programas de cribado de la enfermedad (AU)

Introduction: The assessment of the state of immunosurveillance (the ability of the organism to prevent the development of neoplasias) in the blood has prognostic implications of interest in colorectal cancer. We evaluated and quantified a possible predictive character of the disease in a blood test using a mathematical interaction index of several blood parameters. The predictive capacity of the index to detect colorectal cancer was also assessed. Methods: We performed a retrospective case-control study of a comparative analysis of the distribution of blood parameters in 266 patients with colorectal cancer and 266 healthy patients during the period from 2009 to 2013. Results: Statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed between patients with colorectal cancer and the control group in terms of platelet counts, fibrinogen, total leukocytes, neutrophils, systemic immunovigilance indexes (neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio), hemoglobin, hematocrit and eosinophil levels. These differences allowed the design of a blood analytical profile that calculates the risk of colorectal cancer. This risk profile can be quantified via a mathematical formula with a probabilistic capacity to identify patients with the highest risk of the presence of colorectal cancer (area under the ROC curve = 0.85). Conclusions: We showed that a colorectal cancer predictive character exists in blood which can be quantified by an interaction index of several blood parameters. The design and development of interaction indexes of blood parameters constitutes an interesting research line for the development and improvement of programs for the screening of colorectal cancer (AU)

Is it possible to predict the presence of colorectal cancer in a blood test? A probabilistic approach method.

INTRODUCTION: The assessment of the state of immunosurveillance (the ability of the organism to prevent the development of neoplasias) in the blood has prognostic implications of interest in colorectal cancer. We evaluated and quantified a possible predictive character of the disease in a blood test using a mathematical interaction index of several blood parameters. The predictive capacity of the index to detect colorectal cancer was also assessed. METHODS: We performed a retrospective case-control study of a comparative analysis of the distribution of blood parameters in 266 patients with colorectal cancer and 266 healthy patients during the period from 2009 to 2013. RESULTS: Statistically significant differences (p < 0.05) were observed between patients with colorectal cancer and the control group in terms of platelet counts, fibrinogen, total leukocytes, neutrophils, systemic immunovigilance indexes (neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio and platelet to lymphocyte ratio), hemoglobin, hematocrit and eosinophil levels. These differences allowed the design of a blood analytical profile that calculates the risk of colorectal cancer. This risk profile can be quantified via a mathematical formula with a probabilistic capacity to identify patients with the highest risk of the presence of colorectal cancer (area under the ROC curve = 0.85). CONCLUSIONS: We showed that a colorectal cancer predictive character exists in blood which can be quantified by an interaction index of several blood parameters. The design and development of interaction indexes of blood parameters constitutes an interesting research line for the development and improvement of programs for the screening of colorectal cancer.

Diagnóstico tardío de carcinoma oculto de vesícula biliar por implante en puerto laparoscópico / Late diagnosis of occult gallbladder carcinoma by an implant in a laparoscopic trocar site

No disponible

Un método gráfico de análisis de costes asociados a los falsos resultados de una prueba diagnóstica / A graphical method for analyzing the cost of a diagnostic test, subject to the sensitivity and specificity of the test

Objetivo. Presentar un método de análisis gráfico de costes ocasionados por los falsos positivos (FP) y falsos negativos (FN) de una prueba diagnóstica. Material y métodos. Construimos una función de costes ligada a la sensibilidad (S) y a la especificidad (E) de la prueba diagnóstica. A partir de esta función obtenemos líneas de isocoste, cuya pendiente es la relación coste FP/coste FN. Representamos cada prueba diagnóstica en el espacio ROC como el punto (1-E, S). Resultados. Las líneas de isocoste permiten visualizar si el gasto asociado a FP y FN de una nueva prueba diagnóstica es menor o igual que el de la antigua. Conclusiones. El análisis gráfico de la función de costes de una prueba diagnóstica ayuda a decidir su introducción o su rechazo(AU)

Objective. We present a graphical method for analyzing the cost related to false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) results of diagnostic tests. Material and methods. We created a function relating cost to the sensitivity (S) and specificity (E) of the diagnostic test. Isocost straight lines were obtained, the gradient of which represents the ratio of false positive cost/false negative cost. The various diagnostic tests are plotted in the ROC space as the point (1-E, S). Results. Isocost straight lines allowed us to see if the cost of a new test is lower or the same as previous tests. Conclusions. Graphical analysis of the cost of a diagnostic test is helpful in deciding whether or not to introduce new diagnostic tests(AU)