Biomarker-guided drug development provides value for patients, payers and drug developers: lessons learned from 25 years in the biomarker industry.

INTRODUCTION: There is an urgent, persistent, need for better biomarkers in clinical drug development. More informative biomarkers can increase the likelihood of drug advancement or approval, and implementing biomarkers increases the success rate in drug development. Biomarkers may guide decisions and allow resources to be directed to the projects most likely to succeed. However, biomarkers that are validated to high standards are needed, reflecting biological and pathological processes accurately. Such biomarkers are needed to develop treatments faster, and to improve and guide clinical trial design by selecting and de-selecting patients. METHODS: In this review based on the authors' previous published experience and interaction with pharmaceutical- and biomarker stakeholders, we highlight the use and value of biomarkers in clinical development according to the BEST guidelines. We highlight the value of 3 types of biomarkers that may provide optimal value to stakeholders: diagnostic, prognostic and pharmacodynamic biomarkers. RESULTS: A more appropriate clinical trial design, increasing the ratio between benefits and side effects, may come from a more tailored biomarker-approach identifying suitable molecular endotypes of patients to treat. DISCUSSION: Biomarkers may guide drug developers in selecting the optimal projects to progress, when designing clinical studies and development paths. Biomarkers may aid in the diagnosis and prognostic assessment of patients and assist in matching the molecular endotype to the selected treatment, which improves the success rate of clinical development progression. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive ideation framework for how to utilize biomarkers in clinical development, with a focus on utility for patients, payers and drug developers.

Longitudinal serological assessment of type VI collagen turnover is related to progression in a real-world cohort of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Remodeling of the extracellular matrix (ECM) is a central mechanism in the progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), and remodeling of type VI collagen has been suggested to be associated with disease progression. Biomarkers that reflect and predict the progression of IPF would provide valuable information for clinicians when treating IPF patients. METHODS: Two serological biomarkers reflecting formation (PRO-C6) and degradation (C6M) of type VI collagen were evaluated in a real-world cohort of 178 newly diagnoses IPF patients. All patients were treatment naïve at the baseline visit. Blood samples and clinical data were collected from baseline, six months, and 12 months visit. The biomarkers were measured by competitive ELISA using monoclonal antibodies. RESULTS: Patients with progressive disease had higher (P = 0.0099) serum levels of PRO-C6 compared to those with stable disease over 12 months with an average difference across all timepoints of 12% (95% CI 3-22), whereas C6M levels tended (P = 0.061) to be higher in patients with progressive disease compared with stable patients over 12 months with an average difference across all timepoints of 12% (95% CI - 0.005-27). Patients who did not receive antifibrotic medicine had a greater increase of C6M (P = 0.043) compared to treated patients from baseline over 12 months with an average difference across all timepoints of 12% (95% CI - 0.07-47). There were no differences in biomarker levels between patients receiving pirfenidone or nintedanib. CONCLUSIONS: Type VI collagen formation was related to progressive disease in patients with IPF in a real-world cohort and antifibrotic therapy seemed to affect the degradation of type VI collagen. Type VI collagen formation and degradation products might be potential biomarkers for disease progression in IPF.

Combining biomarkers of clot resolution and alveolar basement membrane destruction predicts mortality in the ECLIPSE COPD cohort.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by abnormal epithelial repair resulting in a hypercoagulable state with intra-alveolar accumulation of fibrin and alveolar basement membrane destruction. This study aimed to investigate if the combination of two serological biomarkers evaluating these pathological processes could improve the prediction of mortality risk compared to single biomarkers. METHODS: Matrix metalloproteinase-mediated degradation of the type IV collagen α3 chain (C4Ma3), located in the alveolar basement membrane, and plasmin-mediated degradation of crosslinked fibrin (X-FIB), an end-product of fibrinogen, were assessed serologically in a subset of the ECLIPSE cohort (n = 982). Biomarker data were dichotomized into high versus low at the median. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to analyze the predictive value of having one or two high biomarkers for all-cause mortality over two years. RESULTS: COPD participants with high levels of two biomarkers were at significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality with a hazard ratio of 7.66 (95% CI 1.75-33.48; p = 0.007) while participants with one high biomarker were not at significantly higher risk (HR 3.79 [95% CI 0.85-16.94]; p = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: A combination of serological biomarkers of alveolar basement membrane destruction and clot resolution was predictive of all-cause mortality in COPD. The combination of two different pathological aspects may strengthen prognostic accuracy and could be used in conjunction with clinical assessment to guide treatment decisions.

Endotrophin, an extracellular hormone, in combination with neoepitope markers of von Willebrand factor improves prediction of mortality in the ECLIPSE COPD cohort.

BACKGROUND: Lung epithelial damage, activation of the wound healing cascade, and remodeling of the extracellular matrix (ECM) play a major role in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The pro-peptide of type VI collagen has been identified as the hormone endotrophin. Endotrophin has been shown to promote fibrosis and inflammation, whereas von Willebrand factor (VWF) is a crucial part of wound healing initiation. Here, we assessed the released and activated form of VWF and endotrophin, the pro-peptide of type VI collagen, serologically to investigate their association with mortality in COPD subjects alone or in combination. METHODS: One thousand COPD patients with 3 years of clinical follow-up from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) cohort were included. Serum and heparin plasma were collected at 6 months and 1 year, respectively. Competitive ELISA utilizing specific monoclonal antibodies assessed endotrophin/type VI collagen formation (PRO-C6), VWF release (VWF-N), and activated VWF (VWF-A). Biomarker levels were dichotomized into high and low as defined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves based on mortality data. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to determine hazard ratios for all-cause mortality for biomarkers alone or in combination. RESULTS: High levels of PRO-C6, VWF-A, and VWF-N have previously been shown to be individually associated with a higher risk of mortality with hazard ratios of 5.6 (95% CI 2.4-13.1), 3.7 (1.8-7.6), and 4.6 (2.2-9.6), respectively. The hazard ratios increased when combining the biomarkers: PRO-C6*VWFA 8.8 (2.8-27.7) and PRO-C6*VWFN 13.3 (5.6-32.0). Notably, PRO-C6*VWF-N increased more than 2-fold. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that by combining two pathological relevant aspects of COPD, tissue remodeling, and wound healing, the predictive value of biomarkers for mortality increased notably.