Site of care and factors associated with mortality in unvaccinated Australian aged care residents during COVID-19 outbreaks.

BACKGROUND: Residential InReach presents an alternative to hospital admission for aged care residents swabbed for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), although relative outcomes remain unknown. AIMS: To compare rates and predictors of 28-day mortality for aged care residents seen by InReach with COVID-19, or 'suspected COVID-19' (sCOVID), including hospital versus InReach-based care. METHODS: Prospective observational study of consecutive patients referred to a Victorian InReach service meeting COVID-19 testing criteria between April and October 2020 (prevaccine availability). COVID-19 was determined by positive polymerase chain reaction testing on nasopharyngeal swab. sCOVID-19 was defined as meeting symptomatic Victorian Government testing criteria but persistently swab negative. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in age, sex, Clinical Frailty Score (CFS) or Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) between 152 patients with COVID-19 and 118 patients with sCOVID. Similar results were found for 28-day mortality between patients with COVID-19 (35/152, 23%) and sCOVID (32/118, 27%) (P = 0.4). For the combined cohort, 28-day mortality was associated with initial oxygen saturation (P < 0.001), delirium (P < 0.001), hospital transfer for acuity (P = 0.02; but not public health/facility reasons), CFS (P = 0.04), prior ischaemic heart disease (P = 0.01) and dementia (P = 0.02). For patients with COVID-19, 28-day mortality was associated with initial oxygen saturation (P = 0.02), delirium (P < 0.001) and hospital transfer for acuity (P = 0.01), but not public health/facility reasons. CONCLUSION: Unvaccinated aged care residents meeting COVID-19 testing criteria seen by InReach during a pandemic experience high mortality rates, including with negative swab result. Residents remaining within-facility (with InReach) experienced similar adjusted mortality odds to residents transferred to hospital for public health/facility-based reasons, and lower than those transferred for clinical acuity.

Clinical predictive factors in diabetic kidney disease progression.

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) represents a major component of the health burden associated with type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Recent advances have produced an explosion of 'novel' assay-based risk markers for DKD, though clinical use remains restricted. Although many patients with progressive DKD follow a classical albuminuria-based pathway, non-albuminuric DKD progression is now well recognized. In general, the following clinical and biochemical characteristics have been associated with progressive DKD in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes: increased hemoglobin A1c, systolic blood pressure, albuminuria grade, early glomerular filtration rate decline, duration of diabetes, age (including pubertal onset) and serum uric acid; the presence of concomitant microvascular complications; and positive family history. The same is true in type 2 diabetes for male sex category, in patients following an albuminuric pathway to DKD, and also true for the presence of increased pulse wave velocity. The following baseline clinical characteristics have been proposed as risk factors for DKD progression, but with further research required to assess the nature of any relationship: dyslipidemia (including low-density lipoprotein, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol); elevated body mass index; smoking status; hyperfiltration; decreases in vitamin D, hemoglobin and uric acid excretion (all known consequences of advanced DKD); and patient test result visit-to-visit variability (hemoglobin A1c, blood pressure and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). The development of multifactorial 'renal risk equations' for type 2 diabetes has the potential to simplify the task of DKD prognostication; however, there are currently none for type 1 diabetes-specific populations. Significant progress has been made in the prediction of DKD progression using readily available clinical data, though further work is required to elicit the role of several variables, and to consolidate data to facilitate clinical implementation.

Elevated baseline glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is independently associated with a more rapid decline in renal function of patients with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: Renal hyperfiltration is observed prior to the development of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1DM); however its significance remains uncertain. Longitudinal data were used to investigate the association between measured baseline glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and renal function decline in patients with T1DM. METHODS: This study included 142 adult patients with T1DM and ≥2 measurements of glomerular filtration rate (mGFR; determined by diethylene-triamine-penta-acetic acid plasma clearance). Median follow up was 19 years. Patients were stratified by baseline mGFR quartile. The relationship between baseline mGFR and rate of renal function decline was assessed using random-effect generalized least squares regression, adjusted for age, duration of diabetes, HbA1c, blood pressure, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor therapy, LDL and BMI. RESULTS: The average rates of decline in renal function for the 2nd (baseline mGFR: 96.4-112.6 ml min-(1) 1.73 m-(2)), 3(rd) (baseline mGFR: 112.6-125.5 ml min- (1) 1.73 m-(2)) and 4th quartiles (baseline mGFR >125.5 ml min-(1) 1.73 m-(2)) were significantly faster than the first quartile (baseline mGFR: 60.9-96.4 ml min-(1) 1.73 m-(2)). In further detail, the average rates of decline in the 2nd (rate of decline 1.25 ml min- (1) 1.73 m-(2) per year, 95% CI: 0.97; 1.52, p=0.008), 3rd (rate of decline 1.35 ml min-(1) 1.73 m-(2) per year, 95% CI: 1.08; 1.62, p= 0.001) and 4th quartiles (rate of decline 1.6 ml min-(1) 1.73 m-(2) per year, 95% CI: 1.34, 1.88, <0.0001) were significantly faster when compared to the first quartile (rate of decline 0.67 ml min-(1) 1.73 m-(2) per year, 95% CI: 0.37; 0.96). Sub-analysis of quartile 4 revealed higher HbA1c measurements throughout follow-up in those with rapid mGFR decline (>3.0 ml min(-1)1.73 m(-2)/year). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with T1DM, higher baseline mGFR is associate ed with more rapid mGFR decline. Patients with high baseline mGFR who developed rapid mGFR decline had higher HbA1c measurements throughout the study. These findings are consistent with the concept that poor glycaemic control over time may be a determining factor for the rapid renal function decline observed in some hyperfiltering patients.