Local reflects global: Life stage-dependent changes in the phenology of coastal habitat use by North Sea herring.

Climate warming is affecting the suitability and utilization of coastal habitats by marine fishes around the world. Phenological changes are an important indicator of population responses to climate-induced changes but remain difficult to detect in marine fish populations. The design of large-scale monitoring surveys does not allow fine-grained temporal inference of population responses, while the responses of ecologically and economically important species groups such as small pelagic fish are particularly sensitive to temporal resolution. Here, we use the longest, highest resolution time series of species composition and abundance of marine fishes in northern Europe to detect possible phenological shifts in the small pelagic North Sea herring. We detect a clear forward temporal shift in the phenology of nearshore habitat use by small juvenile North Sea herring. This forward shift might be linked to changes in water temperatures in the North Sea. We next assessed the robustness of the effects we found with respect to monitoring design. We find that reducing the temporal resolution of our data to reflect the resolution typical of larger surveys makes it difficult to detect phenological shifts and drastically reduces the effect sizes of environmental covariates such as seawater temperature. Our study therefore shows how local, long-term, high-resolution time series of fish catches are essential to understand the general phenological responses of marine fishes to climate warming and to define ecological indicators of system-level changes.

Why we cannot always expect life history strategies to directly inform on sensitivity to environmental change.

Variation in life history traits in animals and plants can often be structured along major axes of life history strategies. The position of a species along these axes can inform on their sensitivity to environmental change. For example, species with slow life histories are found to be less sensitive in their long-term population responses to environmental change than species with fast life histories. This provides a tantalizing link between sets of traits and population responses to change, contained in a highly generalizable theoretical framework. Life history strategies are assumed to reflect the outcome of life history tradeoffs that, by their very nature, act at the individual level. Examples include the tradeoff between current and future reproductive success, and allocating energy into growth versus reproduction. But the importance of such tradeoffs in structuring population-level responses to environmental change remains understudied. We aim to increase our understanding of the link between individual-level life history tradeoffs and the structuring of life history strategies across species, as well as the underlying links to population responses to environmental change. We find that the classical association between lifehistory strategies and population responses to environmental change breaks down when accounting for individual-level tradeoffs and energy allocation. Therefore, projecting population responses to environmental change should not be inferred based only on a limited set of species traits. We summarize our perspective and a way forward in a conceptual framework.

First Ecological Study of the Bawean Warty Pig (Sus blouchi), One of the Rarest Pigs on Earth.

The Bawean warty pig (Sus blouchi) is an endemic pig species confined to the 192 km(2) large island of Bawean in the Java Sea, Indonesia. Due to a lack of quantitative ecological research, understanding of natural history and conservation requirements have so far been based solely on anecdotal information from interviews with local people and study of captive and museum specimens. In this study we provide the first assessment of population and habitat preferences for S. blouchi by using camera trapping. From the 4th of November 2014 to January 8th 2015, we placed camera traps at 100 locations in the forested protected areas on Bawean. In 690.31 camera days (16567.45 hours) we captured 92 independent videos showing S. blouchi. Variation in S. blouchi trapping rates with cumulative trap effort stabilized after 500 camera days. An important outcome is that, in contrast to the suggestion of previous assessments, only S. blouchi was detected and no S. scrofa was found, which excludes hybridization threats. We fitted a Random Encounter Model, which does not require the identification of individual animals, to our camera-trapping data and estimated 172-377 individuals to be present on the island. Activity patterns and habitat data indicate that S. blouchi is mainly nocturnal and prefers community forests and areas near forest borders. Next to this, we found a positive relationship between S. blouchi occupancy, distance to nearest border, litter depth and tree density in the highest ranking occupancy models. Although these relationships proved non-significant based on model averaging, their presence in the top ranking models suggests that these covariables do play a role in predicting S. blouchi occurrence on Bawean. The estimated amount of sites occupied reached 58%. Based on our results, especially the estimation of the population size and area of occupancy, we determine that the species is Endangered according to the IUCN/SSC Red List criteria.