Spatio-temporal dynamics of rabies and habitat suitability of the common marmoset Callithrix jacchus in Brazil.

Rabies transmitted by wildlife is now the main source of human rabies in the Americas. The common marmoset, Callithrix jacchus, is considered a reservoir of rabies causing sporadic and unpredictable human deaths in Brazil, but the extent of the spillover risk to humans remains unknown. In this study, we described the spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies affecting C. jacchus reported to Brazil's Ministry of Health passive surveillance system between 2008 and 2020, and combined ecological niche modelling with C. jacchus occurrence data to predict its suitable habitat. Our results show that 67 outbreaks (91 cases) of rabies affecting C. jacchus were reported by 41 municipalities between January 2008 and October 2020, with a mean of 5 outbreaks/year [range: 1-14]. The maximum number of outbreaks and municipalities reporting cases occurred in 2018, coinciding with higher surveillance of primate deaths due to Yellow Fever. A mean of 3 [1-9] new municipalities reported outbreaks yearly, suggesting potential spatial expansions of the C. jacchus variant in northeastern Brazil and emerging rabies spillover from vampire bat Desmodus rotundus to C. jacchus in the north and south. Outbreaks were concentrated in the states of Ceará (72%) and Pernambuco (16%) up to 2012, but are now reported in Piauí since 2013, in Bahia since 2017 (D. rotundus' antigenic variant, AgV3) and in Rio de Janeiro since 2019 (AgV3). Besides confirming suitable habitat for this primate in the northeast and the east coast of Brazil, our Maximum Entropy model also predicted suitable habitat on the north and the west states of the country but predicted low habitat suitability among inland municipalities of the Caatinga biome reporting rabies. Our findings revealed new areas reporting rabies infecting C. jacchus, highlighting the need to implement strategies limiting spillover to humans and to better understand the drivers of C. jacchus rabies dynamics.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of rabies and habitat suitability of the common marmoset Callithrix jacchus in Brazil

Rabies transmitted by wildlife is now the main source of human rabies in the Americas. The common marmoset, Callithrix jacchus, is considered a reservoir of rabies causing sporadic and unpredictable human deaths in Brazil, but the extent of the spillover risk to humans remains unknown. In this study, we described the spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies affecting C. jacchus reported to Brazil’s Ministry of Health passive surveillance system between 2008 and 2020, and combined ecological niche modelling with C. jacchus occurrence data to predict its suitable habitat. Our results show that 67 outbreaks (91 cases) of rabies affecting C. jacchus were reported by 41 municipalities between January 2008 and October 2020, with a mean of 5 outbreaks/year [range: 1–14]. The maximum number of outbreaks and municipalities reporting cases occurred in 2018, coinciding with higher surveillance of primate deaths due to Yellow Fever. A mean of 3 [1–9] new municipalities reported outbreaks yearly, suggesting potential spatial expansions of the C. jacchus variant in northeastern Brazil and emerging rabies spillover from vampire bat Desmodus rotundus to C. jacchus in the north and south. Outbreaks were concentrated in the states of Ceará (72%) and Pernambuco (16%) up to 2012, but are now reported in Piauí since 2013, in Bahia since 2017 (D. rotundus’ antigenic variant, AgV3) and in Rio de Janeiro since 2019 (AgV3). Besides confirming suitable habitat for this primate in the northeast and the east coast of Brazil, our Maximum Entropy model also predicted suitable habitat on the north and the west states of the country but predicted low habitat suitability among inland municipalities of the Caatinga biome reporting rabies. Our findings revealed new areas reporting rabies infecting C. jacchus, highlighting the need to implement strategies limiting spillover to humans and to better understand the drivers of C. jacchus rabies dynamics.

Unexpected winter questing activity of ticks in the Central Midwestern United States.

Unexpected questing activity of ticks was noted during the winter months of January and February in the Central Midwestern states of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. From nine geographically distinct locations, four species of ticks were collected using the flagging method, of which the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, was most abundant, followed by the American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis, the Gulf coast tick, Amblyomma maculatum, and the Black legged tick, Ixodes scapularis. More A. americanum nymphs were caught questing than male or female adults. The winter activity of these medically important ticks in this region poses concern for public health and offers an insight into future tick activity in light of ongoing climate change. More studies on the seasonality of these tick species, and how different climate parameters affect their seasonal activity in this region are warranted and would be expected to benefit for both human and veterinary medicine.

Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050.

The eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus is one of two ticks that cause potentially fatal tick paralysis in Australia, and yet information on the full extent of its present or potential future spatial distribution is not known. Occurrence data for this tick species collected over the past two decades, and gridded environmental variables at 1 km2 resolution representing climate conditions, were used to derive correlative ecological niche models to predict the current and future potential distribution. Several hundreds of candidate models were constructed with varying combinations of model parameters, and the best-fitting model was chosen based on statistical significance, omission rate, and Akaike Information Criterion (AICc). The best-fitting model matches the currently known distribution but also extends through most of the coastal areas in the south, and up to the Kimbolton peninsula in Western Australia in the north. Highly suitable areas are present around south of Perth, extending towards Albany, Western Australia. Most areas in Tasmania, where the species is not currently present, are also highly suitable. Future spatial distribution of this tick in the year 2050 indicates moderate increase in climatic suitability from the present-day prediction but noticeably also moderate to low loss of climatically suitable areas elsewhere.

Likely Geographic Distributional Shifts among Medically Important Tick Species and Tick-Associated Diseases under Climate Change in North America: A Review.

Ticks rank high among arthropod vectors in terms of numbers of infectious agents that they transmit to humans, including Lyme disease, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Colorado tick fever, human monocytic ehrlichiosis, tularemia, and human granulocytic anaplasmosis. Increasing temperature is suspected to affect tick biting rates and pathogen developmental rates, thereby potentially increasing risk for disease incidence. Tick distributions respond to climate change, but how their geographic ranges will shift in future decades and how those shifts may translate into changes in disease incidence remain unclear. In this study, we have assembled correlative ecological niche models for eight tick species of medical or veterinary importance in North America (Ixodes scapularis, I. pacificus, I. cookei, Dermacentor variabilis, D. andersoni, Amblyomma americanum, A. maculatum, and Rhipicephalus sanguineus), assessing the distributional potential of each under both present and future climatic conditions. Our goal was to assess whether and how species' distributions will likely shift in coming decades in response to climate change. We interpret these patterns in terms of likely implications for tick-associated diseases in North America.

Diversity and seasonality of host-seeking ticks in a periurban environment in the Central Midwest (USA).

Between March 2014 and February 2017, host-seeking ticks were collected during the late spring and summer months seasonally, and as well as continually through all seasons from several sites in a periurban environment in Pittsburg, Kansas, located in the Central Midwestern United States. All three post-emergent life-stages of Amblyomma americanum, and the adults of three other ticks viz. Dermacentor variabilis, A. maculatum, and Ixodes scapularis were collected using the flagging method, and were taxonomically identified using morphological and molecular methods. A total of 15946 ticks were collected from these sites. A vast majority of the ticks collected over the three-year study period was A. americanum (79.01%). The three other species collected included D. variabilis (13.10%), A. maculatum (7.15%), and Ixodes scapularis (0.73%). More female ticks of each species were collected throughout the study period from all sites, and a unimodal activity period was noted for all four species. The diversity, composition, and phenology of these medically significant tick species are discussed.

Bovine anaplasmosis herd prevalence and management practices as risk-factors associated with herd disease status.

Bovine anaplasmosis is a hemolytic disease of cattle caused by Anaplasma marginale which can cause anemia, adult mortality, abortion, and performance reduction. The objectives of this study were to estimate herd-level infection prevalence of bovine anaplasmosis in Kansas cow-calf herds and assess management practices associated with herd infection status. Licensed Kansas veterinarians were randomly selected and provided clientele to generate randomly selected participant herds. Blood samples were collected from 10 mature cows during processing of 925 herds between October 1, 2016 and March 1, 2017. A management survey was completed by 780 herd-owners. Sample status was determined by competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA); operations indicating vaccination for anaplasmosis were tested with A.marginale-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Survey data underwent logistic regression analysis for calculation of odds ratios and confidence intervals. The herd-level prevalence was 52.5 % of cow-calf herds. Prevalence ranged from 19.1 % of herds in Western Kansas to 87.3 % of herds in Eastern Kansas. Vaccinated herds were more likely (OR = 2.38; CI = 1.16-4.85; p =  0.02) to be positive compared to non-vaccinated herds, and herds that utilized insecticide ear-tags were more likely to be positive (OR = 1.9; CI = 1.42-2.55; p < 0.01) compared to herds which do not. Operations that prescribe-burned 21-50 % and >50 % of their pastures were more likely to be test positive, OR = 5.74 (CI = 3 .14-10.51; p < 0.01) and OR = 4.78 (CI = 2.33-10.17; p < 0.01), respectively, than operations that prescribe-burned <20 % of their pastures. In summary, anaplasmosis is present across Kansas beef herds at varied prevalence levels and selected management practices were found to be associated with herd infection status.

Assessing the current and future potential geographic distribution of the American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae) in North America.

The American dog tick, Dermacentor variabilis, is a veterinary- and medically- significant tick species that is known to transmit several diseases to animal and human hosts. The spatial distribution of this species in North America is not well understood, however; and knowledge of likely changes to its future geographic distribution owing to ongoing climate change is needed for proper public health planning and messaging. Two recent studies have evaluated these topics for D. variabilis; however, less-rigorous modeling approaches in those studies may have led to erroneous predictions. We evaluated the present and future distribution of this species using a correlative maximum entropy approach, using publicly available occurrence information. Future potential distributions were predicted under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios; RCP 4.5 for low-emissions and RCP 8.5 for high-emissions. Our results indicated a broader current distribution of this species in all directions relative to its currently known extent, and dramatic potential for westward and northward expansion of suitable areas under both climate change scenarios. Implications for disease ecology and public health are discussed.

Prediction of seasonal patterns of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus RNA detection in the U.S. swine industry.

We developed a model to predict the cyclic pattern of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) RNA detection by reverse-transcription real-time PCR (RT-rtPCR) from 4 major swine-centric veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) in the United States and to use historical data to forecast the upcoming year's weekly percentage of positive submissions and issue outbreak signals when the pattern of detection was not as expected. Standardized submission data and test results were used. Historical data (2015-2017) composed of the weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions were used to fit a cyclic robust regression model. The findings were used to forecast the expected weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions, with a 95% confidence interval (CI), for 2018. During 2018, the proportion of PRRSV-positive submissions crossed 95% CI boundaries at week 2, 14-25, and 48. The relatively higher detection on week 2 and 48 were mostly from submissions containing samples from wean-to-market pigs, and for week 14-25 originated mostly from samples from adult/sow farms. There was a recurring yearly pattern of detection, wherein an increased proportion of PRRSV RNA detection in submissions originating from wean-to-finish farms was followed by increased detection in samples from adult/sow farms. Results from the model described herein confirm the seasonal cyclic pattern of PRRSV detection using test results consolidated from 4 VDLs. Wave crests occurred consistently during winter, and wave troughs occurred consistently during the summer months. Our model was able to correctly identify statistically significant outbreak signals in PRRSV RNA detection at 3 instances during 2018.

Bovine anaplasmosis herd prevalence and management practices as risk-factors associated with herd disease status.

Bovine anaplasmosis is a hemolytic disease of cattle caused by Anaplasma marginale which can cause anemia, adult mortality, abortion, and performance reduction. The objectives of this study were to estimate herd-level infection prevalence of bovine anaplasmosis in Kansas cow-calf herds and assess management practices associated with herd infection status. Licensed Kansas veterinarians were randomly selected and provided clientele to generate randomly selected participant herds. Blood samples were collected from 10 mature cows during processing of 925 herds between October 1, 2016 and March 1, 2017. A management survey was completed by 780 herd-owners. Sample status was determined by competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA); operations indicating vaccination for anaplasmosis were tested with A.marginale-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Survey data underwent logistic regression analysis for calculation of odds ratios and confidence intervals. The herd-level prevalence was 52.5 % of cow-calf herds. Prevalence ranged from 19.1 % of herds in Western Kansas to 87.3 % of herds in Eastern Kansas. Vaccinated herds were more likely (OR=2.38; CI=1.16-4.85; p= 0.02) to be positive compared to non-vaccinated herds, and herds that utilized insecticide ear-tags were more likely to be positive (OR = 1.9; CI = 1.42-2.55; p < 0.01) compared to herds which do not. Operations that prescribe-burned 21-50 % and >50 % of their pastures were more likely to be test positive, OR=5.74 (CI=3 .14-10.51; p < 0.01) and OR=4.78 (CI=2.33-10.17; p < 0.01), respectively, than operations that prescribe-burned <20 % of their pastures. In summary, anaplasmosis is present across Kansas beef herds at varied prevalence levels and selected management practices were found to be associated with herd infection status.

Macroepidemiological aspects of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus detection by major United States veterinary diagnostic laboratories over time, age group, and specimen.

This project investigates the macroepidemiological aspects of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) RNA detection by veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) for the period 2007 through 2018. Standardized submission data and PRRSV real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) test results from porcine samples were retrieved from four VDLs representing 95% of all swine samples tested in NAHLN laboratories in the US. Anonymized data were retrieved and organized at the case level using SAS (SAS® Version 9.4, SAS® Institute, Inc., Cary, NC) with the use of PROC DATA, PROC MERGE, and PROC SQL scripts. The final aggregated and anonymized dataset comprised of 547,873 unique cases was uploaded to Power Business Intelligence-Power BI® (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington) to construct dynamic charts. The number of cases tested for PRRSV doubled from 2010 to 2018, with that increase mainly driven by samples typically used for monitoring purposes rather than diagnosis of disease. Apparent seasonal trends for the frequency of PRRSV detection were consistently observed with a higher percentage of positive cases occurring during fall or winter months and lower during summer months, perhaps due to increased testing associated with well-known seasonal occurrence of swine respiratory disease. PRRSV type 2, also known as North American genotype, accounted for 94.76% of all positive cases and was distributed across the US. PRRSV type 1, also known as European genotype, was geographically restricted and accounted for 2.15% of all positive cases. Co-detection of both strains accounted for 3.09% of the positive cases. Both oral fluid and processing fluid samples, had a rapid increase in the number of submissions soon after they were described in 2008 and 2017, respectively, suggesting rapid adoption of these specimens by the US swine industry for PRRSV monitoring in swine populations. As part of this project, a bio-informatics tool defined as Swine Disease Reporting System (SDRS) was developed. This tool has real-time capability to inform the US swine industry on the macroepidemiological aspects of PRRSV detection, and is easily adaptable for other analytes relevant to the swine industry.

Current and Future Distribution of the Lone Star Tick, Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae) in North America.

Acarological surveys in areas outside the currently believed leading edge of the distribution of lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum), coupled with recent reports of their identification in previously uninvaded areas in the public health literature, suggest that this species is more broadly distributed in North America than currently understood. Therefore, we evaluated the potential geographic extent under present and future conditions using ecological niche modeling approach based on museum records available for this species at the Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit (WRBU). The median prediction of a best fitting model indicated that lone star ticks are currently likely to be present in broader regions across the Eastern Seaboard as well as in the Upper Midwest, where this species could be expanding its range. Further northward and westward expansion of these ticks can be expected as a result of ongoing climate change, under both low- and high-emissions scenarios.

Surveillance for Heartland and Bourbon Viruses in Eastern Kansas, June 2016.

In June 2016, we continued surveillance for tick-borne viruses in eastern Kansas following upon a larger surveillance program initiated in 2015 in response to a fatal human case of Bourbon virus (BRBV) (Family Orthomyxoviridae: Genus Thogotovirus). In 4 d, we collected 14,193 ticks representing four species from four sites. Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae) accounted for nearly all ticks collected (n = 14,116, 99.5%), and the only other species identified were Amblyomma maculatum Koch (Acari: Ixodidae), Dermacentor variabilis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae) and Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae). All ticks were tested for both BRBV and Heartland virus (Family Bunyaviridae: Genus Phlebovirus) in 964 pools. Five Heartland virus positive tick pools were detected and confirmed by real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR), while all pools tested negative for BRBV. Each Heartland positive pool was composed of 25 A. americanum nymphs with positive pools collected at three different sites in Bourbon County. A. americanum is believed to be the primary vector of both Heartland and BRBVs to humans based upon multiple detections of virus in field-collected ticks, its abundance, and its aggressive feeding behavior on mammals including humans. However, it is possible that A. americanum encounters viremic vertebrate hosts of BRBV less frequently than viremic hosts of Heartland virus, or that BRBV is less efficiently passed among ticks by co-feeding, or less efficiently passed vertically from infected female ticks to their offspring resulting in lower field infection rates.

Surveillance for Tick-Borne Viruses Near the Location of a Fatal Human Case of Bourbon Virus (Family Orthomyxoviridae: Genus Thogotovirus) in Eastern Kansas, 2015.

Bourbon virus (Family Orthomyxoviridae: Genus Thogotovirus) was first isolated from a human case-patient residing in Bourbon County, Kansas, who subsequently died. Before becoming ill in late spring of 2014, the patient reported several tick bites. In response, we initiated tick surveillance in Bourbon County and adjacent southern Linn County during spring and summer of 2015. We collected 20,639 host-seeking ticks representing four species from 12 sites. Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae) and Dermacentor variabilis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae) accounted for nearly all ticks collected (99.99%). Three tick pools, all composed of adult A. americanum ticks collected in Bourbon County, were virus positive. Two pools were Heartland virus (Family Bunyaviridae: Genus Phlebovirus) positive, and one was Bourbon virus positive. The Bourbon virus positive tick pool was composed of five adult females collected on a private recreational property on June 5. Detection of Bourbon virus in the abundant and aggressive human-biting tick A. americanum in Bourbon County supports the contention that A. americanum is a vector of Bourbon virus to humans. The current data combined with virus detections in Missouri suggest that Bourbon virus is transmitted to humans by A. americanum ticks, including both the nymphal and adult stages, that ticks of this species become infected as either larvae, nymphs or both, perhaps by feeding on viremic vertebrate hosts, by cofeeding with infected ticks, or both, and that Bourbon virus is transstadially transmitted. Multiple detections of Heartland virus and Bourbon virus in A. americanum ticks suggest that these viruses share important components of their transmission cycles.

The Geographic Distribution of Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Revisited: The Importance of Assumptions About Error Balance.

The black-legged tick, Ixodes scapularis Say, is the primary vector of Borrelia burgdorferi, a spirochete that causes Lyme disease, in eastern North America. Lyme disease risk has generally been considered to be focused in the Northeast and the northern Midwest in the United States, yet the distribution of the vector extends considerably more broadly. A recent analysis of the distribution of the species using ecological niche modeling approaches painted an odd biogeographic picture, in which the species is distributed in a "rimming" distribution across the northern Midwest and Northeast, and along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the eastern United States, but not broadly in the interior of eastern North America. Here, we reanalyze the situation for this species, and demonstrate that the distribution estimated in the previous study was a consequence of assumptions about relative weights applied to different error types. A more appropriate error weighting scheme for niche modeling analyses, in which omission error is prioritized over commission error, shows a simpler distribution, in which the species ranges continuously across eastern North America; this distributional pattern is supported by independent occurrence data from the eastern Great Plains, in Kansas. We discuss implications for public health planning and intervention across the region, as well as for developing effective and predictive maps of vector distributions and pathogen transmission risk.

Heterogeneous Associations of Ecological Attributes with Tick-Borne Rickettsial Pathogens in a Periurban Landscape.

The variations in prevalence levels of two tick-borne rickettsial pathogens, Ehrlichia chaffeensis and Ehrlichia Ewingii, in a periurban environment were evaluated along with their ecological determinants. Tick life stage and sex, month of tick collection, landscape fragmentation, and ecological covariates specific to pasture and woodland sites were considered as explanatory covariates. Questing lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum) were collected by flagging for an hour once every week during mid-April through mid-August in years 2013 and 2014. A total of 4357 adult and nymphal ticks (woodland = 2720 and pasture = 1637) were collected and assessed for pathogen prevalence by molecular methods. Female A. americanum ticks were more infected with E. chaffeensis than males or nymphs in woodland areas [♂ = 6.05%; ♀ = 12.0%; nymphs = 2.09%] and pastures [♂ = 8.05%; ♀ = 12.03%; nymphs = 3.33%], and the prevalence was influenced by edge density in the landscape. Higher E. ewingii infection was noted among female A. americanum ticks within woodland areas [♂ = 1.89%; ♀ = 2.14%; nymphs = 1.57%], but no such difference was evident in pastures [♂ = 1.03%; ♀ = 1.33%; nymphs = 1.12%]. Prevalence of E. ewingii was influenced by edge contrast index, and the percentage of pasture perimeter that was less than 20 meters from woodland areas. This study elucidates the complexity of tick-borne pathogen ecology and points to the need for further studies on the role of reservoir hosts, particularly that played by small vertebrates, which is not fully understood in the region.

Bayesian Spatiotemporal Pattern and Eco-climatological Drivers of Striped Skunk Rabies in the North Central Plains.

Striped skunks are one of the most important terrestrial reservoirs of rabies virus in North America, and yet the prevalence of rabies among this host is only passively monitored and the disease among this host remains largely unmanaged. Oral vaccination campaigns have not efficiently targeted striped skunks, while periodic spillovers of striped skunk variant viruses to other animals, including some domestic animals, are routinely recorded. In this study we evaluated the spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of infection status among striped skunk cases submitted for rabies testing in the North Central Plains of US in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, and also evaluated potential eco-climatological drivers of such patterns. Two Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted to point-referenced striped skunk rabies cases [n = 656 (negative), and n = 310 (positive)] received at a leading rabies diagnostic facility between the years 2007-2013. The first model included only spatial and temporal terms and a second covariate model included additional covariates representing eco-climatic conditions within a 4 km(2) home-range area for striped skunks. The better performing covariate model indicated the presence of significant spatial and temporal trends in the dataset and identified higher amounts of land covered by low-intensity developed areas [Odds ratio (OR) = 3.41; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (CrI) = 2.08, 3.85], higher level of patch fragmentation (OR = 1.70; 95% CrI = 1.25, 2.89), and diurnal temperature range (OR = 0.54; 95% CrI = 0.27, 0.91) to be important drivers of striped skunk rabies incidence in the study area. Model validation statistics indicated satisfactory performance for both models; however, the covariate model fared better. The findings of this study are important in the context of rabies management among striped skunks in North America, and the relevance of physical and climatological factors as risk factors for skunk to human rabies transmission and the space-time patterns of striped skunk rabies are discussed.

Bayesian Space-Time Patterns and Climatic Determinants of Bovine Anaplasmosis.

The space-time pattern and environmental drivers (land cover, climate) of bovine anaplasmosis in the Midwestern state of Kansas was retrospectively evaluated using Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models and publicly available, remotely-sensed environmental covariate information. Cases of bovine anaplasmosis positively diagnosed at Kansas State Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory (n = 478) between years 2005-2013 were used to construct the models, which included random effects for space, time and space-time interaction effects with defined priors, and fixed-effect covariates selected a priori using an univariate screening procedure. The Bayesian posterior median and 95% credible intervals for the space-time interaction term in the best-fitting covariate model indicated a steady progression of bovine anaplasmosis over time and geographic area in the state. Posterior median estimates and 95% credible intervals derived for covariates in the final covariate model indicated land surface temperature (minimum), relative humidity and diurnal temperature range to be important risk factors for bovine anaplasmosis in the study. The model performance measured using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value indicated a good performance for the covariate model (> 0.7). The relevance of climatological factors for bovine anaplasmosis is discussed.

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever.

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.