Phylodynamic approaches to studying avian influenza virus.

Avian influenza viruses can cause severe disease in domestic and wild birds and are a pandemic threat. Phylodynamics is the study of how epidemiological, evolutionary, and immunological processes can interact to shape viral phylogenies. This review summarizes how phylodynamic methods have and could contribute to the study of avian influenza viruses. Specifically, we assess how phylodynamics can be used to examine viral spread within and between wild or domestic bird populations at various geographical scales, identify factors associated with virus dispersal, and determine the order and timing of virus lineage movement between geographic regions or poultry production systems. We discuss factors that can complicate the interpretation of phylodynamic results and identify how future methodological developments could contribute to improved control of the virus.

H9N2 avian influenza virus dispersal along Bangladeshi poultry trading networks.

Avian influenza virus subtype H9N2 is endemic in Bangladesh's poultry population. The subtype affects poultry production and poses a potential zoonotic risk. Insufficient understanding of how the poultry trading network shapes the dissemination of avian influenza viruses has hindered the design of targeted interventions to reduce their spread. Here, we use phylodynamic analyses of haemagglutinin sequences to investigate the spatial spread and dispersal patterns of H9N2 viruses in Bangladesh's poultry population, focusing on its two largest cities (Dhaka and Chattogram) and their poultry production and distribution networks. Our analyses suggest that H9N2 subtype avian influenza virus lineage movement occurs relatively less frequently between Bangladesh's two largest cities than within each city. H9N2 viruses detected in single markets are often more closely related to viruses from other markets in the same city than to each other, consistent with close epidemiological connectivity between markets. Our analyses also suggest that H9N2 viruses may spread more frequently between chickens of the three most commonly sold types (sunali-a cross-bred of Fayoumi hen and Rhode Island Red cock, deshi-local indigenous, and exotic broiler) in Dhaka than in Chattogram. Overall, this study improves our understanding of how Bangladesh's poultry trading system impacts avian influenza virus spread and should contribute to the design of tailored surveillance that accommodates local heterogeneity in virus dispersal patterns.

Drug use and phylogenetic clustering of hepatitis C virus infection among people who use drugs in Vancouver, Canada: A latent class analysis approach.

This study estimated latent classes (ie, unobserved subgroups in a population) of people who use drugs in Vancouver, Canada, and examined how these classes relate to phylogenetic clustering of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. HCV antibody-positive people who use drugs from two cohorts in Vancouver, Canada (1996-2012), with a Core-E2 sequence were included. Time-stamped phylogenetic trees were inferred, and phylogenetic clustering was determined by time to most common recent ancestor. Latent classes were estimated, and the association with the phylogenetic clustering outcome was assessed using an inclusive classify/analyse approach. Among 699 HCV RNA-positive participants (26% female, 24% HIV+), recent drug use included injecting cocaine (80%), injecting heroin (70%), injecting cocaine/heroin (ie, speedball, 38%) and crack cocaine smoking (28%). Latent class analysis identified four distinct subgroups of drug use typologies: (i) cocaine injecting, (ii) opioid and cocaine injecting, (iii) crack cocaine smoking and (iv) heroin injecting and currently receiving opioid substitution therapy. After adjusting for age and HIV infection, compared to the group defined by heroin injecting and currently receiving opioid substitution therapy, the odds of phylogenetic cluster membership was greater in the cocaine injecting group (adjusted OR [aOR]: 3.06; 95% CI: 1.73, 5.42) and lower in the crack cocaine smoking group (aOR: 0.06; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.48). Combining latent class and phylogenetic clustering analyses provides novel insights into the complex dynamics of HCV transmission. Incorporating differing risk profiles associated with drug use may provide opportunities to further optimize and target HCV treatment and prevention strategies.

Establishment and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Brazil and the Americas.

Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas was first confirmed in May 2015 in northeast Brazil. Brazil has had the highest number of reported ZIKV cases worldwide (more than 200,000 by 24 December 2016) and the most cases associated with microcephaly and other birth defects (2,366 confirmed by 31 December 2016). Since the initial detection of ZIKV in Brazil, more than 45 countries in the Americas have reported local ZIKV transmission, with 24 of these reporting severe ZIKV-associated disease. However, the origin and epidemic history of ZIKV in Brazil and the Americas remain poorly understood, despite the value of this information for interpreting observed trends in reported microcephaly. Here we address this issue by generating 54 complete or partial ZIKV genomes, mostly from Brazil, and reporting data generated by a mobile genomics laboratory that travelled across northeast Brazil in 2016. One sequence represents the earliest confirmed ZIKV infection in Brazil. Analyses of viral genomes with ecological and epidemiological data yield an estimate that ZIKV was present in northeast Brazil by February 2014 and is likely to have disseminated from there, nationally and internationally, before the first detection of ZIKV in the Americas. Estimated dates for the international spread of ZIKV from Brazil indicate the duration of pre-detection cryptic transmission in recipient regions. The role of northeast Brazil in the establishment of ZIKV in the Americas is further supported by geographic analysis of ZIKV transmission potential and by estimates of the basic reproduction number of the virus.